The non-farm payroll report was a positive surprise this month, that calmed the fears of economic slowdown. The U.S. economy created 287,000 jobs in June beating expectations of 175,000. The unemployment rate rose marginally to 4.9% while the wages increased 0.1%. The week ahead the central banks of Canada and England will have their policy meetings.
The BoE interest rate decision and minutes will be closely watched, as the forecasts show that three of the nice policymakers supports a rate cut. Following the Brexit decision, we heard a lot about BoE to ease its monetary policy, however, nothing happened yet and this meeting minutes will give us a clearer picture of central bank’s plans.
Monday will be quiet as usual with limited news coming out from the Euro Area and the U.S. The U.S. labour market conditions index for June will be released. During the day, a Eurogroup meeting will take place. Overnight, the national Australian Bank’s business confidence for June is expected.
On Tuesday morning, June’s German inflation rate and wholesale price index will be announced. The UK inflation report hearings is scheduled to be published on 09:00 GMT time and BoE quarterly bulletin on 11:00 GMT time. Both of the reports will be closely watched as they enclose significant data for the financial stability of the UK economy. In U.S., the NFIB business optimism for June, the JOLTS job openings and the wholesale inventories for May will be released. During the night, the Australian, Westpac consumer confidence for July will be eyed as well as the Japanese industrial production and capacity utilization for May.
Going to Wednesday, we start the day with the BoE credit conditions survey for the second quarter. Later on, Eurozone’s industrial production for May is expected to contract 0.7% in May versus an increase of 1.1% mom the previous month. Traders will keep a tab on FOMC Member Harker speech. The import and export price indexes are not expected to attract significant attention. The Bank of Canada will have its interest rate decision at 14:00 GMT time followed by a monetary policy statement and a press conference. No changes are expected at the current 0.5% cash rate, however, the speech will be cautiously watched by investors to gauge policymakers view on the economy.
Later in the afternoon, all the attention will be turned to Fed’s beige book and the U.S. monthly budget statement for June. During the night, Australia will publish its employment report for June and its consumer inflation expectation report for July. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly at 5.8% in June from 5.7% before while the employment change is predicted to show that Australian economy employed 10k people in June from 17.9k in May.
On Thursday, Bank of England policymakers will vote for the benchmark interest rate decision. The forecasts show that three of the nice policymakers will vote for a rate cut. Following the Brexit decision, we heard a lot about BoE to ease its monetary policy, however, nothing happened yet and this meeting minutes will give us a clearer picture of central bank’s plans. Thus, the BoE minutes will be scrutinized by investors.
The U.S. producer price index will be released and later on, two Fed policymakers Lockhart and George’s speeches will be eyed. Overnight, the Chinese GDP growth for the second quarter will be eyed.
On Friday, there are significant economic releases. In Eurozone, the trade balance and the inflation rate for May and June respectively are coming out. The consumer prices are forecasted to have added 0.2% compared to the month before that rose 0.4%. Compared to the same month the year before, the prices are expected to retain the same pace of growth of 0.1%.
In U.S., June’s retail sales are expected to have increased just by 0.1% from 0.5% in May. The U.S. inflation rate is predicted to have a steeper increase that before of 0.3% versus 0.2% the last figure. The flash Michigan consumer sentiment for July and the business inventories for May are also coming out.
That’s it for the major economic events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on major currencies