Weekly Outlook: June 06 – 10; RBA and RBNZ Policy Meetings Ahead

The upcoming week is equally busy with the one just past. Last week the U.S. jobs report disappointed the market participants and decreased sharply the odds for a rate hike in June. The headline non-farm payroll number came out 38k by far below forecasts of 164k in May while April’s figure revised down to 123k from 160k before. It’s worth noting that unemployment rate fell to 6-years low at 4.7%. The ECB left the monetary policy on hold and upgraded the growth and inflation forecast for this year.

This week the RBA and RBNZ have their interest rate decisions. Eurozone’s final GDP for the first quarter will be released and, going to UK, manufacturing and industrial production for April as well as the GDP growth for the three months to May will be published.

[B]Monday [/B]looks quiet in terms of economic indicators. Early in the morning, the German factory orders for April are coming out. A while later, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence for June and the targeted LTRO will be released. The U.S. labour market conditions index for May is coming out.

Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its interest rate decision and the rate statement. In April the bank cut its benchmark interest rate decision to 1.75% from 2% it was for near a year. However, no more rate cuts are expected for now.

On [B]Tuesday[/B], the UK Halifax house prices for May will be released. Euro area’s GDP is expected to remain at the current levels, 0.5% qoq and 1.5% yoy. For the second quarter, the ECB president Mario Draghi said that there is an improvement in the economic growth.

In Canada, the Ivey purchasing managers index for May is coming out while in U.S. the indicators will be watched in the economic optimism for June and the consumer credit change for April. Later in the day, the Japanese economic growth will be closely eyed. The annual GDP growth for the first quarter is expected to show an increase to 1.9% from 1.7% before while the quarterly figure is predicted to have increased to 0.5% versus 1.4% the preliminary.

[B]Wednesday [/B]has key events data coming out. In UK, the manufacturing and industrial production figures as well as the NIESR GDP for the three months to May. The manufacturing production is forecasted to have dropped 1.5% yoy in April following a decline of 1.9% in March, while the industrial production is predicted to slump 0.4% preceding a decrease of 0.2%.

Later in the Asian session, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will revise its benchmark interest rate followed by a press conference and the monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected to the current 2.25% interest rate.

In Japan, the machinery orders for April will be released while in China May’s inflation rate will attract the attention.

Going to [B]Thursday[/B], I expect a quiet day in terms of volatility. A smattering low-level data out of Germany, UK, and U.S. are coming out. In UK, the good trade balance will be released. In U.S. the weekly jobless claims are scheduled for release as usual and later in the day the wholesale inventories for April are coming out. In Canada, the capacity utilization for the first quarter and the new housing price index for April will be published.

Finally on [B]Friday[/B], the German inflation rate for May is coming out. Later in the day, attention turns to U.S. business optimism index for May and the Canadian jobs report. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.1% while the net change in employment is forecasted to come out at 5.0k versus a drop of 2.1k the previous month.

Later in the afternoon, the flash Michigan consumer sentiment index for June will be released and is expected to slow down to 94.0 from 94.7 before. The U.S. monthly statement is also scheduled for release and the predictions are bad for the economy. The analysts predicted a deficit of 60B in May versus a surplus of 106B the month before.

The [B]EUR/USD[/B] pair surged more than 2% after U.S., the world’s largest economy, added just some measly 38,000 new jobs in May, a far cry from the 162,000 expected, casting some serious doubts that the U.S. Federal Reserve would hike interest rates in June or July.

The pair recovered above the significant level of 1.1300, which coincides with the daily 50-SMA following the strong rebound from the ascending trend line and the 200-SMA, near 1.1100. The strong rally above the aforementioned obstacles now favors the bulls and so do technical readings, as in the daily chart, the RSI indicator is above 50 while the MACD crossed above its trigger line and is now ready to step in a positive territory. Furthermore, the price is trading above both the 50-SMA and the 200-SMA adding to the bullish picture of the pair. The short-term indicators do remain positive and the weeklies also seem to be picking up steam. Therefore, the next levels to watch will be the psychological level at 1.1400 and then the 1.1455 barrier.

The [B]GBP/USD[/B] fell in Asian trade on Monday after weekend polls showed growing support for a UK departure (45% to vote UK to leave the EU) from the EU. The pair surged above the 1.4530 region following the worst U.S. job creation figures for almost six years on Friday.

The pair has been looking a little weak over the past couple of days. In fact, the last few candles have been very bearish. The daily candle closed below the 50-SMA on the daily chart, as well as below the 1.4440 barrier. However, the pair is still in a clearly defined uptrend in the medium term since is forming higher highs and higher lows. The failed attempt above the 1.4770 barrier, however, could negate the uptrend since it failed to form a higher high. The 1.4300 will be the level to confirm this. If we see a close below the trend line, then we could see a much bigger retracement, prompting a move towards 1.4200 and then at 1.4130. Ahead of the EU referendum, we could expect unpredictable swings to this pair.