A key week for the market after the sharp aggressive sell-off of the pound last week, the non-farm payrolls figure that eased for the third consecutive month in September and the unemployment rate which rose to 5%. In the week ahead, all eyes will remain firmly focused on the FOMC minutes report and Fed’s Yellen’s speech which both have the strength to impact the market.
Monday is starting with the release of German trade balance report for August. The imports and exports are scheduled for publishing early in the morning and the forecast is an increase for both, as well as for the seasonally adjusted trade balance. In Europe, Sentix investor confidence for October is expected to rise to 6.3 from 5.6 in September. Later on, in the U.K., the BRC like-for-like retail sales which measures changes in the actual value of the retail sales from participating companies with invaluable management information on a regular and reliable basis and shows the performance of the retail sector, as well as August’s trade balance in Japan, will be announced. Overnight, U.S. Fed’s Charles L. Evans will have a speech. In addition, in Australia, the national bank’s business confidence for September is expected to be released and RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott will have a speech.
On Tuesday, German ZEW survey for October is expected to show a rise in both the current situation and expectation indices to 55.4 from 55.1 before, and to 4.0 from 0.5, respectively. Also, the ZEW economic sentiment for Eurozone as a whole will be announced – no forecast is available yet. In the U.S., the NFIB Business Optimism Index for September is coming out, while in Canada the housing starts will be released. Later in the day, attention will turn again in U.S. where the Labor market conditions for October will be published.
On Wednesday, the day is starting with the SNB Governor Board Member Zurbrugg speech. During the European day, Eurozone’s industrial production is expected to rise in August on a mom basis to 0.6% from -1.1%.
In the U.S., the MBA mortgage approvals for the week to Oct 14 and the JOLT’s job openings will be released. The big event of the day which traders will cautiously eye is the FOMC minutes which is scheduled to be published in the afternoon. Moreover, in U.K. we will get the RICS house price balance for September and overnight the CB leading economic index will be announced. In European midnight, Australia will release its consumer inflation expectation for October.
Going to Thursday, the wholesale price index in Germany is expected to be released, as well as, the consumer price index which is forecasted to remain the same as the prior month. The main event of the day is the Eurozone’s extraordinary economic summit. Additionally, in the U.S., the initial jobless claims for the week until October 7th are coming out. The exports and imports price indexes are both estimated to rise 0.1% in September from -0.8% and -0.2% respectively pushing up the nation’s trade surplus. Later in the day, FOMC member Harker will give a speech and after that, the monthly budget statement will be announced.
On Friday, the BoE credit conditions survey report for Q3 will be published as well as Eurozone’s trade balance for August. Later on, one of spotlight events of the day is the U.S. retail sales which are expected to be up 0.4% in September versus a drop of 0.3% in August.
The producer price index for September is forecasted to rise 0.2% mom from a flat month in August. The University of Michigan will release its preliminary report on consumer sentiment in October which is expected to slightly fall at 91.0 from 91.2. In the afternoon, the most important event of the day is Fed’s Yellen speech at 16:00 GMT where investors will be focused on. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak at Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Annual Research Conference for “The Elusive “Great” Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle”.
