I’ve been tracking XAU/USD index for almost one month. I simply realized that there is a perfect symmetrical triangle formation on it (for last one year). And that means there is a reliable huge action is about to come as everyone knows. On the other hand, this formation does not tell us about its direction. It can go either up or down we do not know.
QE3 arrives price goes up. No QE3 and price goes down. The balance of probability is that QE3 will arrive but timing is everything as a general economic slump and risk off could see gold take a bit of a dive first. We’ve been in a steady downtrend all this year as the QE effect wore off. But it’s clear from price action like today that large players are buying decent dips fairly aggressively at the moment in anticipation of QE3 and price taking off again.
If we look at the 1H,4H old is actually consolidating since a long term.Any break out of R/S line will cause a big trend.Most of the people are expecting it’s direction upward in anticipation of Qe3 but a wait-to-see strategy would be best.
There is a divergence today, stock market is down .8% here in the us and gold is up pretty nicely. Silver has been showing even more strength. I think if true fundamentals take over we could see a huge run. We’ll see what ends up happening.