Hello Trade Reform,
Things do not always happen the way we want to or expect to, especially in trading.
Patterns do not always materialize or manifest the intended expectations. Use them as a guide, not as something absolute.
You spotted a valid divergence, BUT you must understand the points I’ve raised above…and that indicators are fallible too and therefore you should not rely on them too much.
Any strong trend, as in the case of USDJPY, will crush your analysis of divergences and mess up with your head (“I spotted a good divergence but why did I lose?”)… So the point is, analyze the market first, and understand the limitation of your tools (in this case, divergence)
second point is to minimize the use of indicators, especially indicators which tell you basically the same thing. In your case, I can’t see quite well but I believe you used RSI and Stoch in your above chart, yes? Look at both closely, and you will see they look roughly the same, so you could discard one of them.
More indicators = less/scattered focus
Agree with what Trade Reform said about expectations. There is no indicator that will tell you what will happen next.
Trading is about combining different “tools”, to find a good entry with a high probability trade.
Technical analysis is only a small part, you also need to consider trading psychology of yourself and the charts, and money management, that is when you will start to understand that it doesn’t matter if you are wrong several times, you will still make money when you have a system that gives you setups with odds in your favor.
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Good luck with your trading!