No, that was a good rant. I can see by just taking a glance back over the charts that a 30 pip trailing stop would take me out of some perfectly good trades. If you are right on the daily direction more times than not, and are putting probability in your favor for a long range day, then it seems that you could safely sleep through until London Close. So I guess I need to decide on splitting two ways or three ways, and that may depend on S&R levels. I think over time it may become apparent that statistically one returns more profits than the other, but for the time being I will just assume that they are both legitimate.
If I am aiming for 2.5R on a āDouble Tapā trade, then that would be 15 pips first TP (30 pips/2) and 50 pips 2nd TP (100 pips/2). According to my data (sorry, broāā¦YOUR data ) there have been 42 daily ranges at or above 125 pips out of the last 80 days for Cable alone. So on average, every other day. Is it possible to get a 100 pips out of a 125 pip day? To pin down the high and low that accurately it would be difficult, but not impossible. Now if you look at days above 150 pips, well there are 27 - one every 3 days. This is the once a week opportunity. The chance of securing 100 pips out of a ā150 pip dayā is much more likely.
Well, anywayā¦sorry for MY rant but I am now fully on board with LO, and obsessed with pinning down this one 2.5R trade a week. I am not underestimating the skill and knowledge it takes to do such a thing, but if it can be done, the compounding profits are astonishing:eek: (It is probably worth noting here that although ICT challenged us to look for just one trade a week - the 2.5R trade - I do recall him saying that if it got to about Wednesday and he hadnāt found it, he would start looking for smaller trades to fill his weekly pip goal.)
youāve helped clear that up for me and have obviously been watching me trading (or at least attempting).
ITC many thanks for the latest video,it has answered my questions on leverage and helped me to see clearly how to structure my trades.
Iāve took a step back from trading,I was live with a 0.05% risk and no leverage on a 5k account.Its at break even so no financial drama,but I realised I was lacking experience and doing stupid things so Iām back to paper trading and studying price till I get it clearer.Its almost there but I need to put more chart time/study of ITCās material to get it instinctive.
Many thanks to all contributors this thread is a priceless resource!!!
After been following my strategy using the fibonacci i have noticed that using fibonacci it is sometimes good to wait for a confirmation like waiting for the second candle to form, and sometimes notā¦
And sometimes price wonāt hit exactly the levels, perhaps 2-3 pips away and then bounce. Since iām only trading exactly on the lines this has made me miss trading oppurtunitiesā¦
Iām following this to train discipline, and perhaps in the future iām thinking of retuning the strategy. Perhaps adding a williams % indicator as a conformation tool. Not sure reallyā¦
Thanks for the advice ICT.
Edit: Didnāt quote otherwise itād be a big post.
As I recall this was a London Close scalp wasnāt it? I remember commenting on it because I took the same trade, but my entry was lower in price, and that is why I thought you entered when price was moving north.
OTE is Optimal Trade Entry (Video 4.2 on the first page of this thread). āChasing priceā means not getting in between 62% and 79% retracement, but getting in as price is rising. Your best entry to go long is when price is heading south!
Price does sometimes hit your Fib level spot on, but you shouldnāt be looking for it to do that each time. This is not an exact science! Also, donāt forget to factor in the spread.
The range for fiber today is only 74, highly doubt that will stick for the end of day range (ending at Tokyo open). I think the potential is there! Good luck
and as for the 100+ pip trades, they are certainly worth the hunt. I think the key to finding those setups is to look at market structure on the higher TFs. The Cable trade you highlighted where it blew out Buy stops on the 1H TF was a perfect example IMO
here my oppinions on your trade. Normally I donāt use any trendlines but this one caught my attention on 1h chart. As I went short in LO I used it for my TP and look how good it supports price. After that bounce Iād consider this swing as an uptrend and want to draw a Fib for a long OTE. Itās just how I draw fibs and Iām not sure if I do this right, but it works out very good till now.
How do you see this? My greatest problems were/are to identify if price is doing a retracement to an OTE or if itās in a trend to somewhere else, mostly a S/R, PPā¦ The problem about this was in the beginning that I was very unstable with TPās because I could draw a fib just everywhere on the chart, in any timeframe and in any direction. Possibly mostly in the direction that I WANTED it to.
So letās say Iāve found an OTE for long, I saw billions of OTE for short where it might be heading and made me very nervous hehe. I hope somebody here can give some advise about this and correct me if my thought are completly wrong
(left out the Fibs, I think you can see the possibilities ;D)
Too bad, I didnāt notice there were fed reports coming out later in the NY session. The small range leading up to that makes more sense. Look at the CPP for June on the Fiber (and try not to cry) lol
That was brave to do the live trade on the thread. I always wonder what I wouldāve done if I had been looking for trades on days like this. Cable fell like a rock and put in a huge range, and Fiber was all over the place and put in itās biggest move at NY close. Not your typical day for sureā¦
Whatās up guys, been a few days since Iāve checked in, life has kept me busy and havenāt really been able to watch the charts as much as Iād like to.
Pulled them up last night at about 2 AM EST (LO Kill Zone) focused on GU and noticed a narrow range day on Tuesday, with a nice pin bar high on Monday at 1.6254. Anyway I figured there would be some stops right above it to get blown out and that a nice Turtle Soup setup might occur, but I was tired and since I havenāt been watching the charts as I should, I went to sleep without any action.
Look at that trade go! Went 7 pips above Mondayās pin bar and is still dropping right now in the asian session. Stop could have been placed extremely tight as they suggest in Street Smarts, and wouldnāt have been hit.
A month ago I would have seen the same exact setup as a reason to go long and try to ride the breakout. Thanks for opening my eyes to how the market works Michael. The funny thing is, I read Michael Covelās books on trend following and the Turtles, and even when he is practically shouting that the trend following method is only right 20% or so of the time, my brain didnāt think about the other 80% of the trades.
I can really connect with all your Sniper analogies. No real world experience, but plenty of nerdy Medal of Honor/Call of Duty Sniping experience lol! At one point last year I was comparing trades to Bullets in an attempt to āconserveā them and cull my overtrading. Those were the daysā¦
Now iām taking 1-3 trades a week and doing infinitely better than ever before. This week I was in front of the charts 30minutes, took 1 trade, and done for the week. I think the biggest obstacle was believing that the game could actually be this easy.
full size:
or the ākill shotā version. this was just me messing around in photoshop about 8 years ago
1% is a small price to pay for an ego check! I have been seeing a lot of things these last ten days that I couldnāt spot before, and I guess I was starting to think I had the full ICT 20/20 vision :58: It is kind of ironic that Fiber blew out the stops just as Cable had done earlier in the dayā¦and I deserved to be punished for not doing a proper top down analysis and seeing where the June CPP was.
On to the next set-up.
EDIT: Well I just watched the last PTC video and it is nice to know that it was in fact a Z-day, and I was right to expect a sympathy play from Fiberā¦it just didnāt happen when and as I expected it to. Not to worry.
I think itās safe to say weāll be in the learning phase for at least the first 12 months. The āego checksā and market beat-downs are all part of our psychological training, and the important part is just getting that chart time to see these setups forming over and over again. The money feels important, like itās our āgradeā but in reality these $ amounts will mean absolutely nothing in a few years.
I mean when we are trading our $100,000 accounts down the road, weāll be extremely glad we got all these āchecks and balancesā done with our small accounts. Honestly though, I think you understand that, but talking it out helps me and all the silent spectators on the thread stay focused on the big picture.
Iām making mistakes too. Just last week I took a pure revenge trade and toasted 2% for no good reason. I just sat there and thought to myself, āis this really how I want to be trading when I need these profits to provide for my family?ā . So I bucked up and went into this week re-focused and driven to maintain patience and consistency according to the setups Iāve been trained to take.
Thanks for that, six3six. I am looking forward to your follow upā¦especially the part about mitigation. Maybe you could give some greater detail on which stock index and which commodity index you are monitoring?
) there have been 42 daily ranges at or above 125 pips out of the last 80 days for Cable alone. So on average, every other day. Is it possible to get a 100 pips out of a 125 pip day? To pin down the high and low that accurately it would be difficult, but not impossible. Now if you look at days above 150 pips, well there are 27 - one every 3 days. This is the once a week opportunity. The chance of securing 100 pips out of a ā150 pip dayā is much more likely.
