Well guys, was looking for a high probability entry to possibly get long in NYO, but nothing setup. Fiber in particular looked to have potential with the open essential at the PDH, nice move up in LO and higher timeframes in agreement. Daily could be coming into some resistance, but with the latest swing making higher lows and higher highs I’m still betting higher. Cable also seems to be in agreement after just bouncing off a major support level - just not sure though, what direction are you guys siding with out of interest?
Was ideally looking for a retrace to the PDH to get long, but there was a vicious move down in there that was far too crazy for me. Right now, with price sitting just below the PDH, could still go higher or might drop down further after retest of the support turned resistance. Regardless, well outside of the kill zone for me and movement has been too erratic.
Still fighting to find that happy place that gives you confidence regardless of any one day.
I was actually looking in the opposite direction of you come NYO and was debating about shorting around the 1.4445 level.
Reason being was Fiber had traded up almost to MR2, which sat right around the 1.4450 institutional level. The 1.4440 level also coincided with R3 from June 26th. Plus, the 1.4440 level was also last weeks high which was breached by just a couple pips, and then retraced by almost 40 pips. With all that resistance I figured it was a likely place to expect a retrace down to a previous area of support.
However, since the Greek Austerity vote was looming, I just stayed flat. Didn’t feel like fighting the news. I watched the 90 pip red candle form in less then 1 minute.
This week is a bit retarded for me hehe. Took another loser today in NYO when I took a long at 1.44075 on Fiber, didn’t expect that huuuugeee news move ;( Looked like a pretty good setup to me, took the swing that broke resistance and the OTE occured right at NYO. Guess this is going to be a losing week for me hehe.
Well, after ripping profits from the hands of the Cable specs on Tuesday, I gave them all back with interest on Wednesday. I entered AUD/USD short, and USD/CAD long, both of them setting up with all of the parameters stated by ICT (support on higher TFs, pivots, numbers, retrace etc). AUD/USD initially looked the more promising shooting down off the OTE sweet spot, but then soon turned and shot back up through SL. USD/CAD was weak from the start, and finally stopped me out by literally 0.1pip before heading back into profit. Very frustrating to say the least.
I did note before entering the trade that the USD Index was not extended to its ADR in either direction, but had trended downwards (albeit with a spike higher at NY Open). ICT said that only USD/CHF needed to meet the USD Index ADR at LC, but I am now starting to question whether it doen’t play a greater role in the other pairs aswell. It seems a little coincidental that Fiber has the highest success rate and the highest potential for rewards of any pair, AND makes up more than half the USD Index.
I have now come to the conclusion that after 14 weeks of trading all pairs, it is time to make a cull. The ones that are adding nothing to my account do not confirm an ‘edge’ under current parameters, and are in fact hindering my progress. With the following five pairs gone, I will be able to concentrate more on the others.
USD/CAD - 2 wins, 2 losses, 1 BE
AUD/USD - 2 losses
EUR/GBP - 2 wins, 2 losses, 1 BE
USD/JPY - 1 win, 1 loss
EUR/JPY - 2 wins, 1 loss, 1 BE (1 win was insubstantial)
The remaining pairs are:
Fiber
Cable
Swissy
GBP/JPY
These pairs have a high success rate using the information that ICT has already provided. If he brings some additional information to the table that makes the other pairs profitable without lots of cumbersome mitigation strategies, then I might consider bringing them back into the fold. Until then my efforts will primarily be focused on Cable and Fiber.
Ali, not much to add to what you said but looking at my results trading cable, fiber and E/G, the later is also my worst pair. I feel I’d like to get to know this pair, being in the UK I think I should get a better feel for the fundamentals but that doesn’t really hold much water as all info is out there for everyone.
The Yen and swissy are two currencies I’d like to get more familiar with but I’m only just about able to follow the ecconomic reports and analysis of the GBP, USD and Euro so I’ll try and consolidate my working knowledge of these guys for the time being.
One tip is to have a long trades bias at the end of the month as this is when the Bundesbank is often buying. UK also often buys this pair at the end of the month to meet it’s EU payments requirements. Obviously if there’s ructions in the markets this might not work out but if things are just tipping along you can see this pair rise up from these requirements along with presumably speculative traders going along for the ride too.
LOL! Thanks for your post, northern. I’m glad it is not only me that feels like this at the moment. I just deleted all of those charts myself. March and April showed so much promise, but I just haven’t gotten a hold on these other pairs of late. It is mainly Cable and Fiber that have kept my equity curve moving up at a steady pace, and have kept me fixated on London Close.
I was at the charts for 90% of the LC sessions these past 14 weeks, and I recall missing maybe two trades on these pairs. That would mean an AVERAGE of 1 trade a week, but they don’t come like clockwork. The longest I waited between set-ups was 4 weeks! Does the word ‘patience’ spring to mind?
I presumed that it would be good to concentrate on one pattern in one kill zone and then roll this out over different pairs - that, I thought, would give me some routine rather than looking at different kill zones. It seemed to work nicely at the start, which is why I ran with it, but I think it is now time to re-think the strategy. With only four pairs, and maybe even just two, I can see by midnight my time if anything is likely to set up. If it isn’t likely I will go to bed ready to rise for the Asian session in the morning. London Close is at 1am my time, and so just in case it puts in a late swing, I will find out how to set an alarm at the ADR price. This shouldn’t happen too often with Cable and Fiber, but just in case.
So from July 1st I will be turning my education towards Asian session, with pending order DEMO trades at London Open, and real money trades at London Close. My first focus of research will be the flows that come into the market at 23:00GMT. It would be really nice to catch some of these big moves that occasionally occur in the Asian session, but I will be more than happy just catching some 20 pip scalps. My short term aim (by the end of this financial year - March 2012) is on averaging 2% a week profit on 1% risk per trade. Longer term aim is still 3.75R, but I think that may take a few more years to achieve.
Michael I saw a post from you on another thread which was asking about a traders morning routine.
In your response you mention, amoungst the more familar concepts, to consult the CRB index. Can you elaborate a bit on this process. I have a couple of ideas on how we could use it but if you could give some specifics we’d be grateful.
Can anyone point me towards a useful CRB or CCI charting site please.
Edit: I was looking a yahoo one which was poor but barcharts one seems to have a good one.
I think I’ve covered this thread word for word but if the CRB index slipped by me can someone enlighten me :45:
Monday I checked COT data which shows commercials reduced their positions on USD. My understanding, that mean Cable and Fiber would go up. Please correct if I miss understood?
Divergence on Bond yields. Somewhere on the thread I red if bond yields are diverging that mean trend will change? Please someone confirm or correct?
I was looking to go long only.
Entered Long at 1.6003
Stop loss 10 pips less than recent swing low at 1.5977
TP target at R1 pivot at 1.6048
Result = 44 pips gain
Risk to Reward: 26/44 (0.6)
Any comments and critique welcome that will help foster learning.
Morning, afternoon, evening…what are we all looking at today? Starting with the USD index on the Daily and 4H, you can see that we have reached some support at the 74.20 figure. This could provide a bounce that would mean lower Cable and higher Dollar…a short position. Moving over to the Daily Cable chart, I can see that the bodies of the May candles come in at the area we are currently at…1.6120 institutional area. Drawing a Fib from the last swing high on the 4H chart we can see that 62% OTE comes in at 1.6127. In terms of Pivots, the Weekly MR1 comes in around 1.6110, and the R1 is at 1.6112 where we currently stand (12:30 NY, 5:30 London). I would like to see price make a swing lower from this resistance area, and then swing back for OTE entry at London Open.
Looking for a short on the fiber of 1.4500 too which was high on 14/06 and is in the OTE area of the 4h chart. Price is in the sellzone of pivots. USDX nearly bounced of 74.20 level. Nice to see confluence of analysis Let’s see which pair makes more hehe
Just got home from work and did my analysis. 100% agreement with what you’re saying here, although my R1 (NY midnight pivots) is at 1.6158, which is sitting in the 4H swing OTE. This is also confluent with the 1.6150 institutional level. I’ll be looking for short setups around here for the next hour or so. Let’s see what the market offers us tonight!
P.S. I also got slaughtered on that Aussie trade last night - I’m not upset about the loss, but rather my ridiculous risk management. It really is the hardest part of trading, if you ask me!
I am still a novice at this LO trade so I’m not going to push my luck. Banked my 2.5R for the week and I’m walking away. Good luck to all those still in the trade!
After my fun experience on the aussie yesterday, I thought I’d really be patient and wait for my entry up around 1.6150, got REALLY tempted to enter when it started to drop.
So, even though I missed the move, I’m really happy I was able to exercise my discipline and not “chase the price”. There’ll be plenty more trades
NYO incoming and I entered short on EU in LO. Ali was the winner, he took GU which made more than 100 pips, while EU is very slowly with about 35 pips since my entry.
BUT with the GU traveled this far way down, how do you guys interpret the SMT?
What do you intend to do at NYO? Look for a LC like scalp on GU? It has reached support on it’s low today and USDX has reached the 168 fib projection.
Or do you think EU will follow GU downwards and you want a short entry here?
I’m not quite sure how to interpret the SMT. I know I should have some advantage of this. Please correct me if I didn’t understand everything correctly. EU fails to make lower lows, while GU did. On the 1h relative chart EU is the stronger one, is this a bullish divergence for GU to come back up to EU?
Bit tough to call, but Price on Cable has failed to move effectively below 1.6000 since January. Each time that level has been tested, the Daily has thrown Price back up to somewhere around the 1.6400 level. So while this has to change at some point - nothing lasts forever! - I would personally expect Price to rally a little, at least. We have spent the last six or seven weeks in a downtrend, but this is still pretty minor so I would not look to short unless we get a confirmed close below 1.6000 - from where we are now, my bias would be long until the chart tells me otherwise. By which I mean at the very least a close on the Daily chart below 1.6000.
I’m always on the lookout for new tools and patterns from Michael because some really gel for me (OTE, Sunday gap, etc) and some don’t (interpreting COT data, SMT is a work in progress).
Anyway ICT mentioned, of the trades outlined in Street Smarts, the Wolfe Wave was one he took notice of so here’s my interpretation of the WW on the Daily Cable. Any thoughts?
Plus I bagged 90% of the cables move this morning. Not an ICT trade, so I won’t elaborate, some thing else I’ve been looking at but I’d like to think Michaels thought processes, as taught, now flavour all my trades
Let’s see which pair makes more hehe
