Head & Shoulders forming on the fiber?
Took long on fiber 1.4370, TP: 1.4450, SL: 1.4350
<br>
Shorted Euro 1.4450 O.T.E. got 50 out already 1.4380 stoploss is this good
Hey everyone, I havenāt posted in a while but itās nice to see a lot of new people contributing around here.
For disclosures sake, Iāve had a really bad month, about a 10% draw down, mainly due to psychological mistakes that I have made, and not due to the markets or the method.
I figured I would share my analysis of today just to start some discussion.
This is on the Cable.
First chart is a screen shot of the chart Michael posted in his video on seasonal tendencies. As stated, there is a high probability chance a high normally forms in April/May followed by a low in June, into another high in July followed by weaker prices in August. Take a quick look at the chart, and youāll see Iāve drawn 3 circles denoting those highs/lows and 2 arrows. Now, that looks like an OTE to me.
Second chart is a daily chart of the Cable displaying the months talked about above. You can clearly see this year, a high was formed at the end of April, which traded softer all the way into June, followed by where we are now in July. Seeing this, I pulled a fib from that high to low, and sure enough, we traded into an OTE on the long term time frame today. I also noted a previous area of significant resistance at the 1.6430.
I do have the stochastic indicator on my chart, not because I use it to trade, but because I wanted to see what OTHER trades may be thinking. Clearly, others may be thinking we are well into overbought territory, and the chance for a short term bounce to the downside may be possible.
Third chart is a 4 hour zoomed in showing the area in question. Once again, OTHER traders may see an overbought level and expect a decline to follow.
Next chart is now a 1 hour chart showing price trading into the previous support and resistance area I marked earlier, going through it just pass the 1.6440 level.
Down to a 15 minute chart at LO today and you can see the strong rejection off of that level when London traders began there day.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v96/c_harry/Screenshot2011-07-27at21844PM.png (Link because I canāt post more then 4 pictures)
My entry was on the OTE and institutional level 1.6420 and my TP are as listed.
I am currently holding onto a portion at the slim chance I actually did grab the July high and the Cable does trade softer into August.
On a side note, I wanted to enter short on the Euro today because I felt it had a stronger rejection but my entry was missed by a couple pips. Iām still happy getting some gains back on my account though and sitting in a risk free trade for a while.
If we close on the lows of the day, it looks like the daily cable chart will have put in a set of railroad tracks.
Thoughts, comments, contrarian opinions all welcome.
Apologies for the long post.
Hereās a screen shot of my last few weeks results, not to show off (much) but to let you guys see what Michaels trading tools have done for me. When I found this thread about six months ago I was happy with a 50% hit rate and a slightly positive R:R.
I have blown one account and this is a demo, Iām going live again in September so will have a few more issues to deal with.
Iām not over trading as much as it might appear as I am spread betting and when I scale out it looks like multiple trades.
This is on a 7.5k account built up from 5k. The over leveraged trades were with very tight stops and happened to work out but not recommended.
I want to trade like that!
Can someone help me figure a profit target on this euro short?
ICT tweeted āLower objective in here rests at 1.4320ā
Hope that helps
What is tweet?
:59: [B]Hey Babypipsters[/B]!
What a wild ride today huh? lolol Wow! :o
I will put together a quick PTC video and recap the Good, the Bad and the Uglyā¦ and post it later tonight.
Talk with you soon!
:57:
Yeah it was wild, but today was one of those days where I was trading in the wrong direction and manage to get two nice positive trades. It came to my mind that phrase in one of your videos where you said that you donāt have to be right all the time to be profitable, but be careful and trade at crucial levels, or something like that, and that was the case today.
Thanks for all your effort.
All the best.
Northerntouchā¦ make the images smaller I think it will improve on the quality. 
Aha!
It appears that it helps to actually watch the videoās in 720p as opposed to 420p.
Can you do a step by step for a day on a demo account so we can see what it looks like when you trade? What amounts you use for pips and targets? This would help me relax and not go nuts trying to get in daily few more times. When I do it one oe two times week its very good. When I do it more than that I get mad and lose focus. Is this normal?
Itās amazing how the tools work together. An edge on entry, an edge on exit, an edge on direction adds up.
Today it was range prediction. I expected a small range day, because the prior day was a large range and fundamentally the market is waiting for debt ceiling news.
Therefore, I kept my targets small and took 100% at first profit. They were
+20 on e/u Asian session short (closed in LO, 1:1 RR)
+53 on LO e/u long (put target below the CPP, 2.5:1 RR)
+30 on LO g/u long (target below CPP, 1.2:1 RR).
Once again, I got the direction wrong on e/u but still made pips.
Itās taken me a while, but I think itās all starting to come together. :45:
AWESOME :57:
I love it!
Poking along steadily here also; wonāt thrash through all the details (I wouldnāt be good at fancy chart postings) but using the methodology as best I can, itās been a solid percent a week. Would have been a lot more except Iāve made some obvious mistakes, or managed to fatfinger my smartphone by trying to make a demo trade with Oandaās āappā thing. Whatever thatās called. All I can say for myself there was that the car was legitimately parked at the time, not at a light 
Two additional strategies have presented themselves over the last month of demo trading.
One, is taking much, much smaller lot sizes if Iām not confident that what Iām doing is the right thing. Itās provided the similar educational ākickā but with far less consequence, even on a demo account. If thereās an overtrading itchā¦ scratch it, but with pennies not dollars. Does wonders. Almost all of the āovertradesā had been losers anyhow, coming in mostly at inappropriate market times and playing outā¦ rather predictably, in hindsight.
The other has been a full glass of wine before bed, to ensure I donāt stay awake and muck it all up by taking 10 pips and running in the middle of the night, rather than the 50 or 100 that patience would have handed to me, had I stayed in each and every one of those times. Money management when losing a trade is easyā¦ money management when winning is far harder. At least for me. Iām working on this by learning how to scale out of a trade properly. And actually applying what was learnedā¦
Perhaps itās best to read back through this entire thread to see if questions have been answered before dredging them up again, but what a long thread it is! Mainly whatās come to mind is that there are apparently seasonal tendencies associated with currency pairsā¦ are these important enough to be mindful of, for instance, might we have reached a July top with cable?
Iām luving your posts Desmond, you put the stuggles weāve all been/going though so eloquently.
As for the seasonal stuff, I ask ICT about that the other day on chat and he said itās coming so just stick to the basics and conquering those inner demons as Micheal would like everyone up to speed on those before he forges too far ahead.
Wally
Kept my target small on the cable but should have let some of it run because of that amazing lightning, but heck its a lot easier to say that now :-D. Got in with the confluing factors below in mind - I want to shout out to ICT for the amazing webinar last night on MF, this is a result - this trade puts me at BE for the week and a very very happy trader.
[B]- Daily MF was Long
- Midpoint between S1 and S2
- OTE at the midpoint
-Institutional level 1.6280[/B]
Bagged 1/2 at 30 pips, and 1/2 more at 50 pips double tapped into a free week! Very happy for my first week trading the ICT method coming from an indicator bells and whistles background for 5 long years. I donāt feel any bit of sadness for closing it early, currently I missed 70 pips, but in my eyes I didnāt miss anything. Profit is profit, and a free trading week is very much appreciated.
Did ICT have a webinar yesterday???