Forex Calendar @ Forex FactoryEDIT: no news and floodings in Maryland => NO FX LIQUIDITY => NO MOVEMENT 
Hey guys.
Iāve been watching the videos but i just feel that iāve gotten so confused with too much information all at once. I know that I should be focusing on one thing at a time.
Regarding looking at the market flow we have to our help the Fractals, right? We look at the daily, 4 hour chart and 1 hourly chart ?
If i now look on the daily for market flow looking at the fractals i interpret it as if the flow is up;
Imageshack - marketflowdailyfractals.png
When i look at the 4 hour it seems as if the fractal penetrated the previous one so is the flow now beginning to go down?
Market flow concept is ok, but it is not a holy grail itself. In my opinion (and btw. take it easy, Im home alone and drink beer from plastic bottleā¦), it is just a tool how to see a big picture. You have to realize first that you DO NOT TRADE TIMEFRAME, but PRICE, thus instead of market flow I would rather look for opportunities around support/resistance areas & key resistance levels during kill zones (if you are a day trader). What I like most are extremes, daily extremes, weekly extremes, monthly extremes etc. Extremes are the sweet pots. Best trades. Simple horizontal lines work and can you serve much better than some market flow indis. I personally look at market flow as the last tool, when I dont really know whats going onā¦
I donāt use the fractals as much for market flow, just more or less of a quick cheaterās way to draw my fibs.
What you have there is a definite bullish market flow, but one thatās evening out and running out of steam. Your 4 hour chart illustrates this even better since this downturn (in my opinion) is just beginning on the daily.
*Also boys and girls, be on the lookout for a potential inverted hammer on the E/U Daily. If the Asian session is as blah as todayās action, it could end up sticking.
I second Manta,
Even though we are technical traders, it is the fundamentals that setup up the technicals and the big players IMO ;-). No news :-/ No trades today, except a potential NYO short on the EURUSD that I saw. Plenty of more days in the week to come, protect that account balance 
I do trade for 10 pipsā¦ if the market is not moving in ASIAN session, I donāt trade, if market is moving, I take trade in the direction or take reverse trade around 11:30 EST near resistance when market try to consolidate for Europe open so no bias to any market if I see opportunity to collect 10 pips like if AUD,EUD got momentum and at x.90 and try to reach round value, I buy for quick 10 pips to round figure.
Donāt try to catch if you miss a big moveā¦ Wait for next opportunityā¦ there is always oneā¦!!
We can have big voltality on Friday as JAXSON hole meeting is there so whosoever trading Yen crosses carefulā¦ we can have some move on Thrusday, Fridayā¦(Donāt know direction), Other pairs should also have some volatlity if QE3 announced.
Happy Trading!!
Anyone looking at treasury yields? It seems 2yr put in a higher low while 5yr, 10yr and 30yr went lowerā¦but I canāt be too sure because the 2yr is off my charts! Can anyone confirm?
If your using stockCharts just put your mouse over the line and box will appear with the data.
And yes 2Y is diverging.
Wally
Another stop-out for me. Gone a week or so without one.
Took a short on the fiber at 4424, right at R1 with a SL 10 pips above the top of the fib at 4461. Had the sell killzone, the normal sell zone above central pivot, OTE, the R1 pivot, the 50 level, the high at 51, and a stochastic screaming how overbought it was. Also bearish daily bias with an inverted hammer.
Damn thing is still climbing. At 4485 now. What did I do wrong? So many things in my favor. Perhaps it was nothing I did wrong, but I wanted some outside opinions here.
I was stopped out aswell today on Cable. PDH to PDL OTE at the figure 1.6500 with H4 down in the sell zone at MR1. Thought we were in for an extended reversal after the railroad tracks on H4. One more pop up to make that railroad a LTH on the H4??
Iām back in on a bigger fib OTE short. Immensely overbought on the 5, 15, and 60 TFs. Have less confluence than before, but enough to jump back in the pool. Up 5 pips, weāll see where she goes.
German ZEW numbers coming up in 10 minutes. Hope it doesnāt derail my trade.
This might be a little over-simplistic, but my take on EUR/USD is based on S&R, basically. I always take my trading lead, my overall bias, from the Daily chart, although I often enter off the lower timeframes. Looking at the Daily for EUR, we basically had an uptrend from January through to May, which gave some nice trading opportunities. Then we had the big selloff in May, which retested the 1.4050 level, which had given Support previously (for instance the last week of March), and prior to that had acted as Resistance (eg. first week of March). Personally, I went Long this pair on 24th May, out of the Support area, made some nice pips. However, I did not see this as a resumption of the previous uptrend, as Price failed to take out the High of the first week of May (around the 1.4900 level), peaking at around 1.4700 to form a Lower High. Price then fell back to low test just above the 1.4050 Support level once more (nice Long opportunity, imho), but then again failed to take out the previous High. It made a Lower High at around 1.4570 or a little below. At this point, I put a Horizontal Level on my chart at the key psychological level of 1.4500, and had the previous horizontal level on there at around 1.4050. To me, this Pair has been basically range-bound for August and the latter part of July between these two levels.
Anyway, apologies for the rambling, but that is an overview of how I see this Pair at the moment. So I am only looking for Long trades from around the 1.4050 level, or Short trades from around the 1.4500 level.
So to answer your original question (there is a point to all this rambling, I promise!!) for me you shorted too early. You went Short at 1.4424, so 80 pips inside the top of the recent range, with your Stop, crucially, also inside the top of the range, at 1.4461. Looking at the Daily chart right now (sorry, canāt figure out how to post charts), Price bust through your Stop, but is currently thinking about high testing out of the 1.4500 Resistance area.
Obviously these levels will break at some point, I am not saying that Price today wonāt break north and bust the 1.4500 level. But to me, this is a probability game. Whatever signals a strategy gives, however many strategy and fundamental factors line up in support of a trade idea, I always run it by basic technical S&R analysis, with a liberal dollop of PA thrown in. To my eye (and I know that these things are subjective) I would not have taken a Short until we had signs of a reversal around the 1.4500 level.
Anyway, apologies if this comes across as preachy, or critical, it is intended to be neither. You asked for views on your trade, and hopefully you will get many - this is just mine.
ST
Absolutely Simon, your experience is always welcomed. Basically, I was trading against the longer TF by your analysis, and did what I often do, and get in one OTE too early. Iām more or less scalping, so what the month is bringing at the moment I pay little attention too. Too much to wrap my head around on top of everything else at this point in my trading.
For this larger OTE, Iāve already taken my 30 pips at 33% off the table. News propelled it Iām sure. As I type, my BE SL just got hit, so glad I did that. Very volatile right now. Going to take what you said into consideration and wait a bit before setting up again.
Nice work on the 30 pips. Certainly a volatile month, which makes the larger TFs harder to read - this is my worst month of the year so far, but then August is always trickier as too many people are not in the market.
Even for scalping, I would say that a Stop outside of that range is safer than one within it - better chance of taking a sneaky few pips at one end of the range than somewhere in no manās land. Trading in the middle of the range can work very well, though, particulary towards the scalper end of business, so donāt let me put you off refining it - there will be markets where I will be flat and scalpers will be in and making nice money!
If you watched ICTās Traders Trinity video and had the zones plotted that might have persuaded you to wait.It seems to work well in sideways markets and he uses it to avoid trades until price is in the sell zone - for the present week from about 14450 to 14520.Based on that you shorted just above the āValueā/No Trade Zone when he would have been waiting to see how price reacted at those levels.He also mentioned that all his tools work better at the extremes,and the reward/risk is much better.
This is all said with the benefit of perfect hind-sight but hope it helps.:5:
Guys, I tried to write quick SMT indi, here is beta version available for download:
http://www.mantafx.com/ccount/click.php?id=7
Basic logic is, that I took the last fractal of one pair, compared it to previous fractal of the same pair and if it is lower, it means, that the currency made a lower low, so I compared the same period on the second pair, whether it made also lower low during this period, if not then we have SMT divergence and possible long signal. It shows an arrow at charts (the pair which made lower low). Vice versa for shorts.
I dont see too much useful info in it (it is indi, so it will never be the same like if you look at chart with human eye), but maybe you can find something in it or have some suggestion.
No trades for me today, no LC this week yet. LO bias was quite unsure for me. Just drop a fib from yesterdays low to high on Cable and plot a line on the 50% retracementā¦ Very interesting. Will watch this in NYC and wait for a bounce to key a fib off for a long!
CPP, Upper Equilibrium OTE from yesterdays low to today high and 80 institutional levelā¦ pretty good possibilty in my oppinion
Hereās a picture for clarification
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greetings
You and I both, sir.
Yeah, my trades were above āno manās landā, but not in super-duper optimal areas just yet. Following the trinity, it almost seems like you wouldnāt even be trading hardly at all on Monday, and possibly Tuesday. Too hard for me to give up right now.