Nice write-up Shaun…sorry about you getting stopped out :mad: As I type it looks as though the 4 Hour flow is breaking to the downside and so our longer term angle might be starting to play out. I will be looking for it to fully break, and then come back up for a retest in order to get in (as with the ICT method).
Some top-down analysis that I do on 5yr treasuries vs 5yr bonds supports the idea that we might be going back down to 1.5500, but this is not part of ICT’s method and so I will leave out the details here.
I have been pretty much just trading using pivot point bounces alone after following the videos and I have been able to pretty effortlessly bag 30-50 pips a day. It is incredible how well it works. I’ve started to close trades at R/Ss as I’ve had one or two bounce on me and lost a substantial amount of the gains due to holding on to it. I always move my stops to break even or half profit, though, so they never become losers.
Excellent breakdown of your trade Shaun… thanks for posting.
Interestingly the price went on to retest that level again, before bouncing back up to the 1.6 level again. Right now (20/01 @ 0815GMT) it’s dipped below the 5954 and could be finding resistance there. (EDIT: it didn’t :D) Let’s see how it plays out, though I’m watching the fractals on that 4 hr chart very closely.
Like you, I’m demo trading ICT’s methods with some very positive results. I do believe that there is often more to be learned from the losing trades than the winning ones though. So it’s all good!
A question for ITC, The British Pound March Futures contract today shows quite a sharpe increase in the open interest.Is this interpreted as commercial traders increasing their shorts?You will also see that it is accompanied by a high volume spike.It compares to the spike of Sept 10 2010 where there was a huge drop in open interest.Is there a reason for such large volume?(ie:Are commercial traders drastically increasing their shorts because they expect a huge drop in price?)
I noticed that too Shaun, I went short at M1 1.5990 but had to go to bed and being gun shy of shorts having used the PDL as resistance earlier ( it was stop running, should have known ) I only got 40 pips…lol. I will be using OI from now on.
Also nearly fell off my chair when I tried ICT’s price projection on the high from just before london to the low just after london open. :eek:
Thanks for answering that, Shaun. It is of no siginificance…I am just interested in other people’s routines and when you said you were getting sleepy far before UK and US sleepy time I thought you might have been in Asia (Japan) like myself. GMT +4 must be a nice time zone…time to set-up the charts before UK open, and plenty of follow through. I am GMT +9 so I set up my charts at 2pm my time (NY midnight), and usually stay up till London closes.
Wally…I only got 50 pips yesterday,too, but it’s better than nothing. My ‘nearly falling off chair’ moment came when Price reached my stop-loss on the ASK price, and then reversed! What a day:eek:
Well that’s spooky, that’s the short I took and the ICT price predictions at the same place, are you watching me Micheal?? lol
The difference was I was watching the IO on a 15 min futures and my mid-pivot was lower also, the low that you used for the long, I used as PDL and tried to short as resistance but now having reviewed that trade on the 15 min chart I see the structure was wrong that it was a ISL and a ISH hadn’t been formed yet which I’m assuming is what we should be looking for ?
Another excellent video, thank you very much.
Wally
Great video ICT. I was wondering whether in future trade examples you could go through the entire process of top down analysis (COT, OI, market flow etc) that would be very helpful so we could see some real life examples of how you determine trade bias. Also obviously you took both long and short trades but did you have a general trade bias this week for the cable?
Yes, a really good video this one… thanks ICT. Very clear and straightforward, showing how these concepts are used in a real trading scenario. Valuable stuff as always.
I got about 50 pips from yesterday’s (20th Jan) fall too. Strange how a number of us seem to have got the same(ish) result! I guess knowing when to exit a trade for optimal results comes as much with experience as anything; one needs to develop confidence in strategies and not be swayed too much by phsychological influences. In my own case, my initial target is to reach a profit that gives me a 1:2 risk/reward ratio relative to my average initial stop loss posititoning. When it reaches that point, the fear of losing part of it cuts in. On the other hand, that kind of self-protection mentality isn’t altogether a bad thing perhaps.
I did take a short today (21st Jan) at the 62 fib level of yesterday’s big drop. I know it’s Friday and the price looks like it’s consolidating but I wanted to give it a try. There’s also confluence with the 62 fib level of the drop between 4th November and 28th December. Still looking at the daily chart, that level has provided support and resistance in the past.
Anyway, 40 pip profit on that and letting it run for the time being. (EDIT: hit break even stop loss… should have taken profit!!! Lesson learned.)
That is the plan… Two more videos and the material is completed for this thread. The analysis will be comprehensive after having the core tenants explained like we have done here.
Great video as usual. You really have a way with those fibs!
That half-way 50% projection technique you have is really useful, I’ve been hitting targets way beyond what I’d normally try for using that and other projection techniques.
Just for my own curiosity, what did you pull out of the market $-wise this week? I know you’re usually trading $300 pips or something, and you do it with a level of calmness that would suggest it’s putting you to sleep! I’m not criticizing, I really do find it inspirational
Great informative lessons on support levels , pivot point levels, and top down analysis. Easy to follow information on observing interest rates and “institutional” levels. Thank you. It helps fill gaps in my learning to trade. I’m primarily an indicators guy at the moment.
I’ve noticed pip goals on this thread range from 20 to 50 or so. So is it safe to assume some posters on other threads here claiming they make 900+ pips last week are just full of it? How can anyone make that many pips anyways unless they caught every swing long and short on most every major forex pair? :rolleyes:
I do not know who claimed to make 900 pips last week… nor do I concern myself with what one trader makes over another. I do suggest setting your goals initially as you learn… rather low… but 100 pips per week is healthy.
You only need 20 per week to build a fortune.
Personally I have a weekly objective of 50-75 pips… realistic and it’s nice beating it consistently. No stressing myself for monster pips… just let the money work it’s magic via compounding.
I thought you might have been in Asia (Japan) like myself. GMT +4 must be a nice time zone…time to set-up the charts before UK open, and plenty of follow through. I am GMT +9 so I set up my charts at 2pm my time (NY midnight), and usually stay up till London closes.
I guess knowing when to exit a trade for optimal results comes as much with experience as anything; one needs to develop confidence in strategies and not be swayed too much by phsychological influences. In my own case, my initial target is to reach a profit that gives me a 1:2 risk/reward ratio relative to my average initial stop loss posititoning. When it reaches that point, the fear of losing part of it cuts in. On the other hand, that kind of self-protection mentality isn’t altogether a bad thing perhaps.
