Matty yes this was definitely a potential trade.
However Thursday was a large range day, and this was behind my decision not to trade this setup, as well as hitting my targets earlier on in the week. I did however paper trade this setup for a profit.
Entry was at 5770
SL 5740
TP +30 and +50
Reason for trade
OTE from yesterday’s low to high
S&R level 5774
MS1 at 5770
Higher TF OTE 61.8 FIB at 5767
SMT divergence Cable Lower lows, EUR higher lows
Killzone London Open
When I reviewed this trade my OTE should have been at 5750 and while i was watching price action break through the first OTE at 5770, i turned my attention to 5750 and the other eye was on the Smart money tool(IF Fiber went lower than yesterdays NY session low i would have aborted the trade.
Your trade is a NY open trade with the simple premise as ICT has said in the past, when London puts in a low for the day, trades up and makes a high,expect NY to open lower than this London high (You can the FIB the London low to high and OTE fell smack bang on your S&R level at 5774). This is yet another buy day template and we have had multiple trade opportunities this week just by trading the concept of the buy day template.
Take profit objectives for me is 1)+30 2) the Asian session high at 5815 and if you really wanted to quote “get the Lions share out of the move” as ICT says, hold for the day however full profit taking would have been at 127% extension shown in the screen shot below (we were going into the weekend and you can expect traders to take profits for the week, so TP would have been aggressive)
Yes your pivots are correct and you can put a feather in your cap for spotting that setup
Just a quick hey and hello to you all. Not to mention we are going to resume where we left off before my personal matters introduced a speedbump. Just a few weeks behind but nothing we can’t overcome.
So it gives me pleasure to announce Monday night Trading The Asian Session Webinar @ 9pm EST.
Thanks Shaunnd! I’m so encouraged that I wasn’t just “seeing things.” Not totally comfortable with EVERYTHING you mentioned (i.e. kill zones) as I’m still working my way through all of ICTs material. Also, I don’t think I totally grasp the SMT. I know ICT mentioned that you use it as confirmation of a trade, not a spotter for one, but I’m not clear on what that means. Is it simply that if there is divergence than you can expect a swing to happen soon? Regardless of the direction of the divergence? I mean, I was looking at a long trade, but you mention that the cable was making lower lows during the divergence, aka it was turning bearish, right? So is the direction of the divergence important or do we simply say that any divergence is confirmation that there might be a reversal in price? Thanks again!
THIS STUFF IS SO FUN WHEN IT STARTS TO MAKE SENSE!!!
Hi Matt, I agree with you that it was tradable and I did trade it long. One of the factors I found important in confirmation of continued long was the fact London didn’t make a new low or even touch the previous lows. If you look at the 1hr candle and 4hr from that time it is clear the selling pressure was simply not there. In fact, at london, price rejected and rocketed back up to test 5820 which is price action telling me that selling pressure isn’t present.
With reference to your kill zone questions take a look at ICT’s PTC videos on the 23rd and 26th of February, its times you want to be looking for a trade setup to form, The 2 main timezones are from 2am EST to 4am EST (London Open) and 7am EST to 9am EST for New York open. There is also the London close kill zone and Asian open Killzone but not of much interest to me as I trade LO and NYO as I am in Dubai.
Kill zones
(EST)
London open: 2am-5am
London close: 10am-12pm
New York open: 8am-10am
Asian session: 7pm-9pm
As far as the SMT goes take a look at my post on page 298 post number 2979 and 2980 , You should be able to grasp how to use it there. If there is SMT divergence it is used to confirm the direction for your trade. So if you were looking to go long as in the setup you identified earlier then when you saw that Cable was making lower lows and Eur was making higher lows, this would confirm that your decision to take a long trade is correct.
Welcome back, and what a grand return with the news re. Asian Session Webinar! Glad you are back and active on the board; I hope you were able to resolve your personal matters as best as possible and all is well. Even in your absence, this thread stayed alive and vibrant with members posting trades, ideas, and a wealth of knowledge which is a true testament to the success of what you had set out to accomplish. Looking forward to the webinar and future posts.
someone posted an excel spreadsheet with COT data, a pretty nice tool. I think it was Hordane? I really appreciate this, but I’m missing some entries since March :S Is anybody here who could offer me the spreadsheet with all entries? That would be really nice.
According to the COT data commercials are still raising longs very much, turning the commercial 66% bullish with a pretty high amount of longs compared to the data I have But I’m missing the takeoff for the bullish trend :S
I can’t remembered who asked the question about my chart setup and I’m too lazy now to look hehe. But I’m using the TradersTrinity Indicator which was posted in this thread just some pages before. These ZigZag lines are from an indicator with a nice name… ZigZag! hehe. I dunno where it’s from nor how it does what it does, it was in my MT4 platform when I installed it. I’m with HotForex if this has anything to do with. I can try do upload it if you don’t have it. It is in the custom section.
I was looking for a long on Friday, but I have to set my orders 4h before LO and this time I took a loss. Well, doesn’t matter =)
Welcome back ICT! I hope everything goes well now.
I wonder if you or someone else will record this webinar? I’m living in GMT+2, so it would be 3 am here, making it hard for me to follow it live ;(
I liked Hordane’s spreadsheet too, but I had issues when automatically updating data due to the fact that I am running an old version of excel. If you just want some figures for Cable and Fiber, then send me a babypips mail with a private e-mail address so I can attach an excel spreadsheet. The format will be different, but you might be able to do something with the raw data.
I want to say hello to ICT and all the traders following this forum.This is my first post in this thread. I’ve been lurking for a while,I wached all videos and two webinars till now,I’m very excited with the tools,especially SMT,ADR,pivots…I want to thank you for your generosity and the hard work you put into this thread.I think the most important lesson Ive learned till now is how to manage a loss,how to live with it.I will start to share every position Ill take,please feel free to comment them,especially losses!
I wanted to post what I did today and what ended up forming after-the-fact.
We had a great 60 pip gap on fiber last night but it was also Asia bank holiday. I expected to see some fill eventually but nothing had happened when I went to bed. Here’s my analysis and I went short twice; however due to not scaling out position I missed a good part of today’s GU move.
Analysis:
Sunday opened up with a 60 pip gap on GU and 100 pip gap on EU. Normally a 50% close of the gap is expected but Asia on bank holiday so light trading expected. GU did not move to close the gap after open and continued down. EU stayed range bound. Went to bed with GU hovering around 1.5700
pre-NY open analysis: Drew fib on fiber from top of the gap to the overnight low. Noted London did not close gap and that price was holding strong below the 72% retrace line of the main Daily move drawn from 1/10/11-5/4/11; this is also the previous support GU tested last week. I also note trading is so far firmly below 1.57766 (red dash line) which denotes the prior swing low from 7/12/11. Fiber has strongly declined since 8/22 giving me an overall higher tf of short with several upside wicks and sseveral very large bear daily candles; indicating the non-existence of buying pressure during the push down (i.e. it didn’t fight to get lower).
Trades: First trade taken at the 72% retrace OTE. Price was holding well below that LTF 72% retrace and trade was with that trend. You had 5 1hr opportunities to get into the OTE zone. Neither EU or GU was moving to fill the gap and I was now comfortable that it would not be filled. Target TP: 1.5700. At the time 1.5700 was an possible OTE long and overnight PA below that point was minimal, I determined this to be a safe exit. Trade executed and went to TP for 33 pips pre-spread. I left nothing to run.
Second trade. Watched PA at 1.5700 and as anticipated PA did struggle bounce slightly at that point and struggle to move lower but it moved lower by 16 pips. Watched PA come back and retest 1.5700 (retest was what I was waiting for). I reentered short once PA retested 1.5700 and cleared the prior 1hr low from overnight. Target TP was the 1.28 fib ext on the 15m. I chose this tp because I did NOT have the S3 levels on the chart that you see in the picture, we were below S2 and I didn’t have a clear possible s/r for PA to reach so I chose the 1.28 ext. PA touched the 1.28 and bounced up, I exited the trade for 17, left nothing on. Looking back I don’t like this trade and should not have taken it given the risk/reward for a possible stop out loss.
Later I realized I didn’t have the L3 levels on the pivots and put them on after watching GU continue to move down and saw they were very near the 1.618 ext. PA touched the 1.618 and bounced back to the 1.278 (look at your 15m chart).
Overall I’m pleased with the trade setup for the first trade, the 2nd trade while not strict ICT I am comfortable with my previous experience & knowledge for this type of PA setup. My 2nd TP though was not well thought out compared to the first TP, imo. In hind-sight I should have simply scaled out half my position at 1.5700 and left the remaining to run with a moved up SL.
Hordane, I am bemused that though I have pivots displayed for both GMT and the -5 hours time-zones, neither set agrees with your pivots. I’m inclined to treat pivots as [I]very [/I]rough guidelines to a day’s possible range since, given all the discrepancies between what we are using, I can’t really believe that they work because ‘everyone uses them’.
Pivots are just areas to watch for price to react or not. Mine are actually GMT + 3, my broker’s time. I do put on GMT and EST pivots as well to see differences, best when all 3 have a similar area.
[B][/B]
I hope you, your family and your house survived mother nature fitfulness.
Tonight I won’t be able to attend the webinar. Would you be so kind to record this webinar, or if not could anybody else do so?
Thanks TP
