So here was the LO trade I took this morning, short on the GU. Not super confident and would love some feedback. Also, I just like to post my trades 'cause it forces me to put down in writing why I’m doing what I’m doing. So…
Justification:
1)MF down on 4hr and daily charts
2) Looking for daily (using Midnight EST) high to be formed hopefully in LO and continue bearish trend
3)OTE using daily (GMT time) high to current low
4) long term support at 1.5483
5) Institutional level 1.5480
6) Divergence on the SMT - Dont know about this one. So far my understanding is simply divergence on SMT is good confirmation of a swing forming??? Euro started making lower lows while pound is still making higher lows. Im’ thinking thats good for a upcoming down swing in the pound. Is that right?
Hi!
I`m thinking euro started making lower lows while pound is still making higher lows,than is a bullish divergence,not a bearish one.
LL/HL =>up
HH/LH=>down
Could you explain this a little bit more in-depth. Are you saying that if the E/U and G/U are both trending upward together, i.e. they keep making higher lows, and then the E/U starts making lower lows, then the G/U will be set up for a bullish move, giving support to longs? I don’t really understand that. The way I had understood was since the pairs kind of mirror each other, if you see them both trending up and then one starts to diverge bearish, then we could reasonable expect the other to follow suit shortly thereafter…no?
I took one trade this morning,on LO,split in two:33.3% and 66,6%.
33,3%: buy on fiber at 1.3380.Trade closed at 1.3429=>+49 pips
66,6%: buy on fiber at 1.3384.Trade still running,moved SL to BE+1pip,TP at 1.3480…+61 pips at this moment:)
Reasons:Fiber made a lower low than previous day,cable failed.I thing is a bullish divergence.
Weekly support 2 on fiber.
A better entrance is marked with a rectangle,both on fiber and cable as well.
The single reason I traded this one on demo is that the MF is short!
Update:second trade closed manually at 1.3464, +80 pips.
I`ve closed earlier because is just enough for me and MF is short.This 2 trades gains me today 2.13% profit.
Risk 1% take 2.1%
Have a nice day!
GLGT
latest edit:the price just hit 1.3480 my previous TP…like I said…I`m a newbie
Im still learning but this is what I thing: If the both pairs make a lower highs but one of them make a lower low and the other one make a higher low,than we have a bullish divergence. If the both pairs make a higher lows but one of them make a higher high and the other one make a lower high,than we have a bearish divergence. I think is like Ive learned in babypips school,the difference is the divergence from babypips school is between the trend and stochastic and here we have a divergence between two major pairs,which is stronger than first one(between the the trend of one pair and stochastic).
But like I said,Im a newbie,Im still learning…
Although the market flow seemed to dictate sell’s, I went long last night at approx 1.3437 looking at s/r. I set the sl at 1.3381, hoping that I was far enough from 1.34 to be safe. I set 50% limits at 1.3488 and 1.3541 (and would have moved the stop up to the original transaction price after the first limit was reached, if I’d been awake at that point.) I was stopped out over night and the market wound up bottoming 1.3362. I’m not as concerned with winning or losing trades, as much as I am with well considered and managed trades (good thought process.) I know the play was a bit aggressive given the market flow, but otherwise does this seem like a well designed trade. Is there anything that stands out that that I should have done differently given the information I’ve provided. I’ve read some of this thread, is this a good place to post specific trade questions like this to get professional feedback. Kind Thanks.
I had a win and 2 losses so sidelined right now. I can’t believe the EU has moved 600 pips alone since Sunday open, talk about a fight between bulls and bears on where that price should be!
Entry again,sell fiber at 1.3508
Reasons:MF short
Sell zone,LC
Found an OTE at 79% fib between daily high and daily low
ADR high
Bearish divengence,cable made a higher high today,fiber a lower high
trade still running
update:30% of trade closed at 1.3478=>+30 pips
latest update:70% closed at 1.3449=>+60 pips.
total gain today,including trades of LO and LC=3.16%
Thank you ICT,thank you guys!
GLGT!
Here’s my analysis with why I decided to go long at LO, my entry shown as soon as I took it, and how the trade unfolded. Here we go:
Took a look at the charts before London Open and noticed there was a divergence of the Smart Money Tool favoring a long bias since GBP/USD was making Higher Lows whilst EUR/USD was making Lower Lows:
I also noticed that the longer timeframe charts - DAILY - showed EUR/USD was at a long term support level (see red line):
Since S&R levels trump market flow, I had a long bias based on the above factors.
I decided to look for an OTE entry going LONG on fiber (EUR/USD) on the 15m and 5m chart. At London Open killzone, I found a suitable entry at OTE at 1.3378 on the 5m chart. The time was 07:43 BST, and the following confluences were apparent:
1.3380 Insitutional Level
SMT divergence
price around key support level
price has confluence of present day MS2 level (buy)
Price has confluence of previous S1 level (buy)
Here is where my long entry at OTE was:
I placed my stop around 10 pips below the swing low which was around 26 pips below my entry point. My risk was .5%. Here is how the trade unfolded:
Price rose all the way up to MR1 level. I had exited my trade much earlier since I kept such a low risk % which didn’t allow me to take full advantage, but I’m glad the tools worked. Cheers, ICT.
Forgive me, but for some reason I’m not grasping the whole SMT divergence thing I guess. When I’m looking at the SMT using 1h TF, I saw both the E/U and G/U were making higher highs and higher lows since about the 22nd of Sept (aka they are both bullish). Then, early on the 26th, the E/U started making lower lows (bearish) while the G/U kept making higher lows and highs (still bullish). So there’s divergence there. Am I right so far? What I don’t understand is the implication that the divergence holds. Are you saying that since the E/U diverged bearishly, its all of a sudden bullish cause it needs to “catch back up” with the G/U? I thought ICTS videos showed times when the two pairs where symmetrical, but then one changed directions quickly. This event was followed shortly after by the other pair making a similar change in direction. So I still don’t see how when the E/U changes to a bearish direction (while G/U continues in a bullish trend) how that means we should be buying the G/U. Sorry, I’m just confused…
On a side note, the SMT is just one factor. Was anything else about my analysis wrong? Or was this simply one of those trades that you will lose every so often just cause nothing is 100% accurate? I’m so new to this that when a trade fails I don’t know if its cause I made a bad analysis or if it was just bad luck.
Actually, when I look at this SMT pic, it looks like the E/U was just continuing to make lower lows (bearish) and that the G/U changed from bearish to bullish by making higher lows. So does that confirm longs on the G/U?
Also, when I do a 4h overlay of the G/U and E/U it looks different than yours sladhaFX. Any idea why that might be?
When I looked at mine, you can see how I thought the MF or both pairs was bullish, and then the E/U changed to bearish by making lower lows at the blue triangle.
‘’ Next Week I will post London Open and next Sunday ICT’s Million Dollar Tools & Tactics module.’’
that would b great to c the london through yr eyes + plus the tools and module,oh dear, what a package
‘‘and at 5k I will tweet my setups and entries and targets… real time. Not providing signals… or trade advise… it’s just for documentation purposes only.’’
i guess that’s what u mentioned before, to mention areas of interest ,before hand,just hinting, i hope with my dear life
‘’’’ hope that satisfies ‘’’’ like fold times one can handle
btw ict, gotta tell u,been around fx for 2 yrs //which is toddling time//,and many pro’s say to do 10 % a month is plenty,which i agree, but than i mentioned very few,including u, i know about 3, that can double account in a month quite often,they shake heads, naaah, maybe lucky few times but it ll catch them or whatever,oh well,i believe there some of them like u that r mind blowing, like seriously. u r the true inspiration
regards
I apologize for butting in here, Matty, but I can answer your question.
On certain time-frames, the time at which each candle opens and closes depends on the time at which the daily candle opens and closes. The time-frames affected in this way are: 2-hour, 3-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour and 12-hour. Not all platforms offer all of those time-frames that I just listed. But, for those time-frames that [I]are[/I] offered, start times depend on the start time of the platform’s daily candle.
Because different platforms begin their “day” at different times, all time-frames between 2-hour and 1-day are subject to these variations.
There should be no differences from one platform to the next on time-frames of 1-hour, or lower; or on time-frames of 1-week or higher.
I took a loss on Friday when I thought we might see another day down to raid the stops below the support on GU before shooting up, but the day was a huge gain, indicating that there might be a V bottom forming! So i decided to look for a long in today’s LO and things lined up. TT was a buy, price was just a bit above CPP, we had a large range day on friday, showing the strength of the bulls.
After the bounce of TT I drew my fib and set my orders before I left the house. Risking 2% at a 25 pips stop loss, nettin 115 pips today.
I have to admit that I went greedy and pipdrunken as ICT would say after that move. Instantly after closing my long I opened a short position off the upper trendline, targeting R1 for 40 pips with stop 10 pips above the trendline. Allthough this trade went very well, catching another 8% I should not have taken this one. I should have been satisfied for this day and stayed on the sidelines, instead of risking my wins immediatly after closing the trade. A lil psychological problem
Thanks for that info Clint. And I usually do look at the 1hr because I believe that’s what ICT has recommended in the past. I was just looking at the 4hr to compare it to sladhaFXs pic he posted. Would you mind giving your interpretation of the 1 hr SMT that I was originally looking at when I made my LO trade today (which failed miserably), and what indication it would give for both the cable and the fiber? Thanks so much.
Matty, somewhere in my notes I just had it written down that a lower lows + higher lows divergence = UP and lower highs + higher highs devergence = DOWN. However, this is only used as a confirmation tool AFTER determining a support/resistance area or trade bias.
ICT explains this tool rather thoroughly in the following video, but [B]fast forward to the 15:30 minute mark[/B]: ICT PTC 021611 - YouTube
hi guys,if anybody could answer this little one pls?
in the vid from 08/14/11 ict said like twice OTE on the 61,8 level //i believe//,i thought that was 78.6 for OTE?
and the turtle soup, i think thats basicaly it - OTE counter, right?
just did little quick read on it via google,will carry on later as its night right now…
anybody who could shout in would b great
thx a lot
It’s a range between 61.8 - 79, really you want a 72-79 area but if you see your confluence factors land in the first range then the trade has a better setup.
hope that satisfies ‘’’’ like fold times one can handle 
