Ive entered at 08:07am GMT and Ive closed earlier because is friday.Thank you!
Ok then that makes sense well hope it worked out for you
waited for the very same trade then doorbell went and so did the trade without me, next time
Hey all
Just wanted everyone to know that I am trading still and that Iāll be hopefully making some semi-regular contributions to the thread again. Yes August was a bad monthā¦I guess it just started to feel like the market had something against me haha, I bet everyone knows how that feels. I just wanted to hit a big reset button on all my ideas about the market, and just start with the simplest of basics and kind of build āmy ownā trading method that perhaps left some ICT stuff out and added things that I have learned from other trusted professionals. Some time away from babypips made the āresetā easier for me, so that I didnāt get caught up in what everyone else was seeing and practicing. I hope that explains that lil bit of drama from last month :34:
One thing I was hoping to share and talk about is the actual practice of āAccount Buildingā and how the most effective way of doing that is. You start off assuming that you have a winning strategy, with some measure of drawdown.
I had always assumed that you start off with a small deposit, and then simply deposit more when it was available, because after all if the strategy is a winner, itās always good to add more moneyā¦right?
Well in my case, I donāt think it is the best way anymore. My new thought is to start with a defined sum, and use that as a āBaseā for compounding the account. I realized Michael always seems to start with a specific amount of money, and then tries to compound it over a period of time. Iām starting to believe that the reasoning for this is more to do with psychology of account building. When I was just adding money when I had itā¦it was hard to get a feel for what āground zeroā was on the account I was trading. Where was a I coming from, where was I going?
Also, I think account need a āstop lossā of their own. So I will be implenting a 20% drawdown rule, where if drawdown exceeds 20% of the base value, that Iād reflect on my trading method and then simply āre-anteā the account to its original value. This both defines when your methods are failing you (for whatever reason), and also gives you an escape from that gamblerās desire to get the account to the illusive Break-even.
and those are my thoughtsā¦
happy to hear what you guys think about that.
Million $ update online and linked on our first page of this thread.
[B]GLGT [/B]:57:
ICT,
Thanks for the update to were you stand on the challenge. It looks like itās going to be a big motivator for me to start a live account. All I can say is wow on almost doubling your account in such a short time.
I know it would be a lot of work on your end but would it be possible for you to go over each trade you take (after the fact, even if itās brief) so we can kind of follow a long. I think it would be really helpful to see what trades you took for the day, because I know sometimes I donāt see the setup but others do. It would help me to start seeing the trades setup. Even if you just type something in the thread that says took trade on session open\close at price because of these confluences\level\ote and trade was success\failed profit took atā¦etc. etc.
Also wanted to know if you were going to give an update to when everything else was going to be released. Would really like to see the LO Session Trade video and I know you said something in a previous video about giving us a checklist to go over. Both of these I hope you are still willing to release and I am patiently waitingā¦:51:
Thanks for everythingā¦GLGT
Well the session series was intended to be a webinar formatā¦ but I am filling in the void and this weekend you will have both London Close and Asian Session. Next Week I will post London Open and next Sunday ICTās Million Dollar Tools & Tactics module.
As for the Million Dollar trade informationā¦ I stated before if you found the video tucked in this thread as an easter eggā¦ I purposely ran a 18k account down this entire year to illustrate what typically occurs in a new traderās accountā¦ several refundsā¦ rollercoaster equity swingsā¦ and I dropped it down to 2500 from 18k on a random trade entry techniqueā¦ one that is highly technicalā¦ a coin toss. Heads I bought tails I soldā¦ no joke. 
So I built in a handicap of 15.5k drawdown to trade up and out of and then aim for the starsā¦ and at 5k I will tweet my setups and entries and targetsā¦ real time. Not providing signalsā¦ or trade adviseā¦ itās just for documentation purposes only.
hope that satisfies
GLGT :57:
ICT,
Much appreciated feedback. Can you by chance direct me to the video you are talking about.
Since Iām asking questions, one thing that has me puzzled is sometimes you say you took a swing trade or position trade or scalpā¦etc. etc. I know what you mean by a scalp trade but the swing trade and position trade and I think there was one other that you mentioned before, has me a little confused. I know what the definition is of swing and position trades are but for some reason you have me confused. in your video lessons I donāt remember you going into any detail about the differences. Can you give me any details on how you use or determine which way you are going to trade. Sorry for this beginner question but for some reason it has me puzzled and seems like it should be straight forward. Not sure if I am over thinking this or not.
Thanks, GLGT
Good to see you back.
Just a note on drawdowns, I read somewhere (Alex Elder I think) is to withdraw and rethink your trading strategy if you lose 6% of your starting equity on a weekly basis. I interprete this as note your equity at the start of the trading week and if your nett losses hit 6% of that amount over the week, then its time to withdraw and demo trade yourself back into sync with the market.
Position trade question
I have been catching up with the thread, so first post here. ICT talks about position trades often, but Iām unsure of the set up. Just wondering if anyone can shed some light. Right now the COT indicates both commercials and large specās are at extremes with a possible buy oportunity coming up on both cable and fiber. Open Interest has also increased, especially with the pound. My understanding was that an increase in OI basicaly strengthend the move the commercials were in. ICT, in one of his videos talks about how a sharp decrease in OI meant a decrease in shorts. He also said that many of the entries for these trades happen during asian session. My question is what am I looking for with these trades. The Williams %R is oversold on both fiber and cable. Are we just waiting for the commercials to decrease their longs indicating that a buy session is in play, and then looking for an OTE to form? Obviously thre is a lot more to this, I think. Just wondering if anyone has some light on this subject.
Newbie here too, so bare with me.
PP
I like stuff like this.
ICT, as a new trader struggling to keep demo accounts afloat, I discovered this thread. Your first 5 videos really hit me hard - I was that bloke on the exhaustive search for the perfect indicator(s), overtrading badly, often way into the night, and developing a destructive addiction. I now have a solid trading plan, realistic expectations and a calm head when I trade, and its made a world of difference. So anyway, I just wanted to say thanks, though words canāt express my appreciation.
I am glad somebody brought up the topic of COT again because I feel that ICT might like to revisit this video, and make a few things clearer.
The things that I think are great: Commercials at extreme 3 year positions, and also one year positions, can signal a change in trend. If the Commercials are heavily net long, look for buying opportunities. When the Large specs are in opposition, and are also at extreme positions, this can act as confirmation. Market sentiment or Williams %R is also a good confirmation that we should be looking for a change in trend. Also, and I have only one instance to go on here, Backwardation (or Backwardization) seems to be an effective way of anticipating a change in trend.
The things that I donāt think are clear, and are possibly inaccurate: When Michael shows us a sharp drop in Open Interest, he says that this is caused by Commercials lightening their shorts in anticipation of higher prices. The example he first points to is a drop-off that occurred on Sept 14th 2010 which can be seen on the Lead Month of the Futures chart (daily bars). He then takes us over to the weekly charts that show the COT net positions and points to the Commercials lightening their net shorts. The place that he points to though is October 19th through November 2nd, and not the middle of September.
Now if we go to the COT data that we have downloaded in our spreadsheets, we will see the drop-off in OI that ICT is referring to. On September 7th 2010 the OI was 257,788 contracts, which was reduced to 170,651 contracts on September 14th. This is a combination of all the existing Futures contracts at that time, but it should be indicative of what is happening on the Lead Month contract. The figures equate to a reduction of 34%, and that did indeed produce a nice rally up. However, the data and the corresponding chart show that they were in fact rapidly reducing their net long positions (not net short positions). The Commercials were net long 29,587 contracts on Sept 7th, and this was reduced to 9,760 contracts the following week, and -7,025 contracts (net short) the week after. The reduction in OI was caused by a huge drop in short contracts AND a huge drop in long contracts, but the drop in long contracts outweighed the short. I know that Bill Meehan and Larry Williams suggest that a ādecline in OI indicates the commercials are most likely covering their shortsā, but in this case I donāt see that to be true.
In my screen shot, the two squares show Sept 7th and Sept 14th. The OI reduction occurred between these weeks, and as you can see the Commercials are lightening their longs.
So with regard to your query, PatientPip, I donāt think it is all that clear. I will say that the reduction needs to be while price is in consolidation, but this reduction in OI is not needed to signal a set-up. Extreme positions alone can do that. The increasing and decreasing of OIā¦well ICT tends to follow Larry Williams on these things and Williams does not subscribe to conventional wisdom. Many analysts would say that if price is going down, and OI is going up (as you suggest it is), then this is bearish. Williams would say if price is going down, and OI is going up AND the Commercials are increasing their net longs, look for price to go up. In other words, āwho is causing the increase in OI?ā
Best regards
Ali
This is Fiber action. And he saysā¦ālightening [B]NET[/B] shortsā
Apologies. It wouldnāt let me edit in a normal way.
Alishijo,
Your COT data looks different then the one posted by hordane. Would it be possible for you to upload your current excel sheet. I just noticed this excel sheet and I would have to update all the data back from March. It would be much appreciated if Alishijo or someone else could post an update for this programs.
Thanksā¦GLGT
iāll look at the excel sheet. Iāve been working on an update but busy with other projects to complete it.
Hordane,
Thanks for taking a look at it. Much appreciated.
From what I can remember, I donāt think my COT data is any different to Hordaneās. His charts might be bar charts whereas mine are line charts, but the data is from the same source. My weekly charts are the same as those used in the site that ICT uses (p&%cecharts.com), and the data is the same as it is here (Current Commitments of Traders Charts). The source data is cftc, current legacy reports, CME, long format.
One thing I have noticed, however, is the fact that the pc.com charts show continuous OI for each contract, regardless of it being a new contract, and there are more instances of OI drop-off than with the CME charts and these charts - E6Z11 | Commodity Futures Price Chart for Euro FX December 2011
My Fiber COT data for the week to September 20th shows a drop-off in OI of 34% from previous week, and this could account for the latest drop-off on pc.comās Lead Month charts, but why is it not showing on the original source, the CMEās website here? EUR / USD
Regards
The last time I checked COT a few weeks ago, I was noticing how flat the commercials were on their positioning. I check again today, and [B]where did that massive long position come from???[/B]
They werenāt this long since Fiber was trading the 1.20-1.25 range. So now 1.35 is the new place to buy? Well it is in an OTE on the daily chart. Should be interesting, these next few weeksā¦
Nice to have you back, AK. Yes, I think things are going to get interesting. I canāt help but think this is panic selling, but it would be wise not to forget lessons of the past. I believe the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was mid September, 2008ā¦not a dissimilar economic environment to the one we are currently seeing. Cable and Fiber put in a decent seasonal pullback on Commercial long positions and indicator confluence, but this only lasted 3 weeks before the strong down trend resumed.
GLGT, everyone!
Ali
P.S. OTE on the daily Fiber, also OTE on daily/weekly USDX (no surprise there!), and 50% retrace from the June low on the weekly Fiber.