Open interest = The total of all LONG positions (commercials + large specs + small specs)
= The total of all SHORT positions (commercials + large specs + small specs)
Consider the last 7 bars of this chart (representing the most recent 7 weeks of COT data — Tuesday, August 23 thru Tuesday, October 4). Look at the increase in commercial LONG positions, and the increase in large spec SHORT positions, over this period. Then, look at your GBP/USD price charts for the same period.
The next COT Report will be released Friday afternoon, October 14 (reflecting data compiled on Tuesday, October 11).
Clint, is this means that smart money accumulating right now for a leg up?.. if we look at the weekly chart, there is very solid support at 1.5320 and price just bouncing of that level… am I thinking in the right direction here?
thanks
first thx michael for yr vids again, always learning…
i will keep this combo on permanently, as sometimes i look at eu solely, pa wise…
guidance that is
Well, I look at it differently. As I see it, [B]a lot of money has been driving the down-move[/B] for almost two months.
I don’t know whether it was “smart money” or “dumb money”, but it moved the market.
During the GU’s 7-week price decline (from Friday, August 19, through Thursday, October 6), [B]increasing open interest[/B] in the futures market confirmed the strength of the downtrend.
[B]Currently, extremely high open interest may be signaling a change in trend. [/B]
Friday’s COT Report may tell us a lot. If open interest holds at current levels, or increases even further, it will likely signal a continuation of the downtrend.
On the other hand, if Friday’s report shows that open interest has declined significantly, it will likely tell us that the market has bottomed and is heading higher from here.
In any case, the signal we get from the COT Report will be just one factor — out of many factors — to be considered in making trading decisions next week.
A quick question regarding market flow. Going into today, we do expect some consolidation after the large range day yesterday. Is it the idea that we are still in buy mode until the market makes a new daily low that replaces the last daily low from the 3rd. I’d really appreciate some thoughts. I see support at the 1.3680 figure and have put in an order to buy at this ‘figure’ (also MR1) if it is hit. I believe that this is also an OTE, from comparing the low 10/11 at 9pm 1.3582 to the high at 1pm 10/12. My order just touches the 62% retracement. Am I looking at this correctly.
I can’t get the fractals in Dealbook the way that I (as arrows over the candles) can in MT4, but am much less comfortable with MT4. DB has fractals but I can’tseem to overlay them on the chart to look as friendly as in MT4
I would like to thank each of you for the awesome stats this thread has received and I feel honored I have been received as well as I have on Babypips. I trust you will be pleased to know… I have more “Tricks of the Trade” to share with you all.
Thanks for keeping my interests peeked and for your continued interests and appreciation for my work. You folks are great!
Wow -thanks from “the man” -shows the character of the person imo -
I am starting my ‘routine’ tomorrow a.m. - and I’m planning on making a post per day - to make me accountable - lets hope it works.
I am going to focus on 1 thing only - my routine - at the N.Y. open 6:30 a.m. CST until 8:15 - 8:30 a.m. CST - Gotta start somewhere right!
The Goal -
Continued study of this material.
Truly understand market sentiment during this time.
“Find an average of 1 entry per week” that is consistent and profitable. I say 1 entry per week, as to on a daily basis say to myself - I don’t need to trade today - don’t force it.
My initial plan since I need to get to the j- o - b - have two scripts running to aid in my trade- - one to cancel any pending orders within like 1 hr, or at a specific time of day like 10 a.m CST- as if that time passes and orders not triggered, then I must have missed the setup.
Secondly a simple move to B.E. after TP1 is hit.
I am looking forward to at least consistent effort first - then consistent
I simply cant price your amazing work highly enough! Your videos are so full with priceless information, knowledge and common sense. I’m completely new to the world of forex and just cant believe my luck finding the best mentor from the very beginning, I’m sure this have ‘‘saved’’ me a little fortune (talking about the loosing trades that eventually would’ve made)
Still half way trough the videos thought, but it takes time to assimilate all the information in them. The knowledge is so concentrated, that I need to watch them 2, 3 or more times to extract every piece of advise given. Cant believe you still got more ‘‘tricks’’ in the bag, you have given so many…
Once again, thank you very much Michael and I must assure you, your work is very highly appreciated!
:35:
Sold at CPP as there was the bounce of important Resistance Level I marked and I thought that it could be a retrace. This time I was wrong - 2% loss, but the winners of LO definitly make up for it. Entry came in too early because the order got triggered, can’t change anything after I left house and there is no option to put in a timeframe where it’s ok to get in, just to cancel at a certain time. The same picture was on A/U, with at better swing to get a fib off, lining up with CPP too.
My entry for the long today at 1.3682, 62% retracement level and important Resistance that turned Support didn’t get triggered by a few pips as you can see Didn’t stay with the short bias when I saw how price reacted through the day when I came home
Here’s a question for ICT or anybody else who’s able to answer this. I know how to read SMT divergences very often, but in the recent example I’m struggling again and also some other times. On October 6th we saw the Cable breaking Support at 1.5320 area and Fiber trading up to a recent Resistance at 1.3380 area. At this time Cable was making a lower low at a Support while Fiber failed to put in a lower low. But while Fiber made a higher high Cable failed to make a higher high. We have both trading at Resistance and Support, so how do you determine which one is the leading part? I don’t have any problems reading this when there’s only on S/R Level near on the two, but what if there’s something on both? I thought about involving the USDX into the SMT tool. It was making a lower high when it tried to get away of Support at ~78.90, which was broken. Mirroring it would show a higher low, indicating a bullish divergence. Is this how you get a clearer vision of it? An improvement of SMT Tool?
And how do you determine if you look for the 161.8, 200, … or any other extension level? What do you want to see to choose one of these?
I started with babypips - go through all the school levels.
Then keep reading and studying - but I do recommend keeping this thread in mind - I am a 3 yr newbie - and I am now convinced of at least one thing - - until you KNOW for YOURSELF - you know nothing. It does not work to follow whomever; for whatever reason, UNLESS, you are committed to study it so in depth, that you know it at least as good as the other guy or even better than he/she does.
That’s my 2 cents – but definitely read through babypips a couple of times to start.
…hehe,I saw that divergence too, got 70 pips on sunday night to monday earlier(GMT)this week,asian session.The monday rally was about 300 pips but 70 pips is just fine for me :)!
It is a committment - I am a part time learner, and so I give me another year or two to become consistently profitable.
to answer your question specifically - like sh1t - there is zero mercy - recently, i have given up trying to ‘win’ - my focus now is to survive- - I figure if I can survive - maybe it’ll get a little easier , then a little easier - then all of a sudden account growth without having to ‘win’ all the time.
Today was a good trading day as I applied two trading concepts (that I was not that familiar with) I think there called patience and discipline. Per ICT videos, I’ve decided that if I can compound 6% profit per month, or 1.5% per week, I can achieve a goal in 96 months. As of yesterday, I’d made 7 trades this week and have booked profit of 3.2% of my account balance. Yesterday I had to go in to NYC mid-morning and could not really trade until a small scalp at days end, so I missed most of the action. I was able to sit at the computer most of the day today (naturally I could not find trades I liked) and per my analysis (1D, 4H, 1HR, and 15M charts) the only opportunity I saw was a small yen scalp buy. After getting half way to TP, I reduced risk that if I got stopped out, it would be break-even (+2.5 pips.)
This week is going well. I really appreciate the positive constructive community that is this thread. In addition to comments I’d received here, and the ICT videos, I recently watched the videos from Eremarket and the Sam Seiden supply / demand on you tube he recommends. Btw, I was watching an ICT video I found on this thread from late June, where he mentions books by Larry Williams and John Murphy. I’ve done the BP school, but am always interested in education if anyone likes to recommend books, threads, youtube viedos etc. Take care - Brian
Does anyone trade the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. If so could someone let me know what the institutional levels are for these pairs. I know for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD they are 80,50,20,00.
Didn’t stay with the short bias when I saw how price reacted through the day when I came home 
- I am a part time learner, and so I give me another year or two to become consistently profitable.
