I bought it at 1.3739 and should have taken profit at yesterdays asian low at 1.3765.
Nevermind, hopefully price will still go up. Price is currently at 100% extension of my fib drawn from the low made at london close to the north american session high.
We’ll see…
The Hunter,
I’m not seeing what you are seeing. If I pull my fib from London Close Low to the NY Session High, price is currently between the 50% and 62% retracement levels. This does look like a good buy around the CPP but I would of definately taken about 70% off before it got to Yesterday’s Asian Session Lows.
We are talking about the EUR/USD pair, correct?
Sorry i meant the low at the end of London close, the 17.15 candle. It shows as a fractal on the 15 minute chart, the 1.3720 level, which ties in nicely with the 1.3726 weekly R2 level 
OK I see it now. When drawing it that way the 79% retracement lines up very nicely with the CPP of the previous day and the 40 level. Hope that one works out for you. My trade never got triggered. I think I might be looking in the wrong spot for my asian session trades.
The Hunter,
Wow look at the thing climb…Nice trade.
Took full profit at yesterdays asian low. I saw the railroad tracks on the 15 minute chart and then price moved up pretty quick.
ICT, thank you for sharing your trading experience and insight. After a slew of bad trades I began watching your vids and was able to put PA into a clear context. And as a direct result today I’m up 100 pips and into another trade that is going my way. Thank you. Your work is very useful to a newbie and I’m very appreciative. You explain how to trade in a very clear manner and I get that you’ve been where most of us new traders are. Priceless!
And so – there were two opportunities at the N.Y. open, on the 5 minute chart that I did see. I did not take either one, as I wasn’t sure if I fit all the details together right yet.
Both E/U and G/U gave an OTE one at 9 EST and one at 8:55 EST – The one item that was lacking is SMT divergence.
Also not sure if at a pivot level. ( I was to busy thinking - wow- this worked)
I did note market flow was up for both on daily and 4hr – but also – noted the TP1 for each was INTO major resistance – so at the very least get to B.E. at that time.
Not sure what happened after that as I was needing to get to the j- o- b.
So quick question – I see CPP used a bunch - - so I am 100% clear –is this Central Pivot Point?
Is SMT divergence required for every trade even if all the other factors point to making the trade and SMT div is not there?
I don’t think SMT is necessary for every trade as it is another tool in the toolbox, one more confluence of factors to taking a trade
Hmmm- now that I think about it -why am I answering?
Answer - I don’t know.
Thoughts - I don’t think it is required, it is simply another tool to utilize- but a pretty powerful tool.
ICT said some time ago not every tool has to line up, but the more confluences of factors, the less risky the trade
There was a very, VERY nice trade this morning during LO.
Price level 1.3750. Confluences: Bullish SMT divergence, previous s/r, CPP, OTE, and the bullish push we’re seeing lately all pointed to a solid setup.
Entered long - once I saw price push past the 1.3830 S/R level, I knew we were golden. Set my stop at 1.3900, got tagged while I was napping for 150 pips for the day.
Thanks ICT for giving us the tools to do this; and I’d like to thank the market for giving me a textbook-perfect trade today.
Very Nice Aarnog, I got long at 3755, ended up taking my full position off at 3800 after all of that consolidation…I saw the bullflag but decided to close, I didn’t think we had the power to knock out those highs being it Friday and the fact we put in a decent range for the week and there was bearish divergence between the Asian and the early LO high. Anyway +45 for the day, Originally I had my final objective at 3900 at the 162% extension and ADR high for the day.
Great to see the tools working for different traders. I think I need to take a pointer from you and take a nap once the trade is on, maybe that is the secret to ICT’s success… I see why he likes nodding off at the PC
awesome thread i tell all my first time traders to read up on this! THANKS!
I was cruising the old posts doing a search for some info and ran across this little nugget of info I thought would be worth bringing up again
Have a question that I hope someone can help me out with.
I started watching the videos over again, because it just doesn’t seem like things are clicking yet like I thought.
On the first PTC video 01/31/11, ICT takes a scalp in the Asian sesssion on the retest of friday’s low. In the video he waits for price to go below 1.5820 and then buys at 1.5835 as price is moving higher. What I don’t understand is he doesn’t use an OTE to get into this trade? Also don’t understand why he picked the 1.5835 level to buy at? To me it would of seemed better to pull a fib from fridays low to the recent high and waited for an OTE or waited for the 1.5820 level to be broken and used it as a turtle soup pattern.
In the same video he says if you missed the entry for the london open you could of entered on the retest of the CPP which sounds like the way he entered with the Asian session.
It would be greatly appreciated if someone could shed some light on this for me and explain to me what I am missing with this concept. Also if these entries are good where would you put your stops when you enter this way.
I thought I had everything down good but looks like I need a lot more study time, hopefully I can start catching on to this style of trading.
Thanks,
Pound Sterling Futures - Commitment of Traders Summary - 10/19/10 thru 10/11/11
I realize that my way of looking at COT data differs from Michael’s way. I hope that I am not contradicting any of his teaching here on this thread. (If this is seen as contradicting Michael’s teaching, please tell me so, and I will shut up and go away.)
In my view, COT data does not predict price movement. Correctly read, COT data shows us market sentiment. When an existing trend is in place, market sentiment, as revealed in COT data, generally mirrors (confirms) that trend in both direction and strength. Observing an existing trend on a price chart, and finding confirmation of that trend in COT data (especially COT data graphically displayed), is the easy part.
At market tops or bottoms, COT data may or may not “call” the turn, by reversing simultaneously with the trend reversal. Seeing what looks like a top or a bottom on a price chart, and finding timely confirmation of that trend-reversal in the COT data, is the hard part. In fact, it’s basically akin to an art; it certainly isn’t a science.
At suspected market tops or bottoms, we might say that COT data is signaling one thing or another; but, I think it’s important that we not take that to mean that the data is predicting anything.
COT data reflects the consensus of (1) commercial interests, (2) large speculators, and (3) small speculators — who have positions in the futures market. The consensus of each of these three groups represents the average opinion, if you will, of that group — opinion which forms after the fact, after a trend begins or ends. This consensus follows price; it does not lead it. COT data is a lagging indicator.
Michael tends to focus on the commercial interests reported in the COT data. This group includes: importers, exporters, multinationals, and others, who use the currency futures market to hedge currency risk.
I watch the large speculators. This group includes: big bank prop desks (Deutsche Bank, and others), large hedge funds (FX Concepts, and others), and large-cap individuals who use the currency futures market to speculate on price movement.
Maybe these are simply two different ways of looking at the same thing. Again, I hope that I’m not contradicting Michael’s teaching, in any way.
Yesterday’s GBP COT Report shows us the following metrics:
• Open interest: 184,359 contracts — up 9,165 (up 5.23 %) from last week
• Commercial LONG positions: 156,606 contracts — up 7,837 (up 5.27%) from last week
• Large spec SHORT positions: 77,363 contracts — down 6,290 (down 7.52%) from last week
Here’s a link to last Friday’s (October 7) chart — http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/36328-what-every-new-aspiring-forex-trader-still-wants-know-4.html#post285294
As I see it, in yesterday’s (October 14) COT Report, the large speculators are confirming that the low in the GBP/USD (made on October 6) was a major trend-reversal point.
But, it’s certainly possible to misinterpret COT data, and only time will tell whether my interpretation is correct.
Here is the latest chart, with some notes which I have added (in green):
Open interest has not peaked yet, due almost entirely to the opening of new positions — both LONG and SHORT — by the commercials, who were (as of last Tuesday) still hedging (locking in) these relatively low prices for the pound sterling.
The big speculators, who care only about the direction of price in the near future, appear to be saying it’s up, from here.
I watch the commercials because by my measure of strength, I believe they are the strongest players in the market. Their positioning quite literally [I]creates[/I] the trend.
Why do I think they are so strong? [B]staying power[/B]
my logic for that is that they are entering positions without stops… because they do not need them…they are hedging real-money transactions and there is no risk of loss. No risk of loss means they can be in the market indefinitely if they wish. Do speculators have that power…perhaps…but most are leveraged to the hilt and have stops set that create their own risk.
The thing is, you do still have to play the spec’s game of following the trend because we are all using stops (i hope). You can watch the commercials game…but you can’t really play it the same way they do.
Overall I think COT is a good bias tool for swing trades, and a great timing mechanism for position trading 
