E/U -
1hr OTE
N.Y. Open
@ purple (R1?) line, so in buy zone (however knowing London session provideded a down day this may be risky?)
on 5 minute turtle soup.
Market flow on daily is up (longs only)
Was up 15 pips at one point- but decided to hand on to see if “right” will take 1/2 off at 20 pips, this will match previous little swing high.
Oh and major SMT Diverg. with the G/U already in an upswing - even though it may be short lived.
Comments?
E/U -
1hr OTE
N.Y. Open
@ purple (R1?) line, so in buy zone (however knowing so far London session provided a down day this may be risky?)
on 5 minute turtle soup.
Market flow on daily is up (longs only)
Was up 15 pips at one point- but decided to hang on to see if “right” will take 1/2 off at 20 pips, this will match previous little swing high.
Oh and major SMT Diverg. with the G/U already in an upswing - even though it may be short lived.
Comments?
(besides i missed the T.S. entry yes, I was a couple candles to late so entry isn’t as good as it could have been.
To get an OTE at about this level, I presume you are drawing your Fib off the early low on Friday morning? And today’s high, of course.
Just finding a good low during this session is easier because it rarely trades outside of the NY price range. This is if you are anticipating London and NY to take the price range higher. Which isn’t happening right now btw. LOL.
Thank you for your quick response.
I cant imagine why I didnt move SL to breakeven when I saw that bearish divergence!!!
I was greedy!
I should have been take profit at +50 pips.Anyway I recovered most of loss later on NYO.
Total loss for today:0.17% :)!
Hey buddy,
Do you mind posting a screenshot of that just so I know for sure that we’re looking at the same thing?
Regards,
Clark
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Here’s my LO trade. At the time when EU reached 261.8 fib projection GU already dropped 50 pips in 20 minutes. Gave a strong bearish divergence for me. Closed on mobile app for 70 pips and entered short on GU at 1.5780 when it traded through and retested it for another 40 pips to S1.
And here’s the divergence:
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greetings
This is the bearish divergence I found today between fiber and cable.Fiber made a higher high between PDH and daily high,cable made a lower high.First chart is M15 tf.
http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6618/171020111.png
After the divergence I looked on M5 chart and found an OTE on fiber.
http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/1337/171020112.png
The question is how do I know the cable will not make a higher high little later than fiber?
MF is up!Broker time is GMT.
Please comment!
Fx… sorry for the delay in the response but I am a great deal behind in my thread reading. So your prompt via Twitter was the best nudge I guess! 
As it relates to the SMT concept… it will best serve you as a Key Support and or Resistance qualifier. You do not go through your charts looking for SMT divergences… save it to say, unless you are looking at a higher timeframe S&R level. Then and only then will it make sense and the question of whether the higher high or lower low will answer itself.
For instance, if you scan through your Weekly, Daily, 4 hour, and very minimum 60 minute charts and you notice a very clear Resistance at a particular level in the past and we are trading up… key word here, UP… to this same Higher Timeframe Resistance level… then you can begin to monitor the highs between the SMT pairs your track. When one fails to make a higher High when price trades UP into this Higher Timeframe “Resistance level”… this indicates Smart Money Distribution has begun.
So in summary, you want to use it to quantify and qualify potential levels you have considered “Key” on the higher timeframe charts. This is the most solid approach to “Seeing” the levels price in the anticipated reaction, be it weakness at Resistance and or strength at Support levels. Again, the critical factor is the prior determination of a “Key” level… not just simply that the SMT shows a divergence of any sort.
Place the emphasis on your level selection going into it and you will discover the SMT places a Wizard’s Cap on your head without much effort on your part.
Hope this helps… GLGT
After some weeks of practice, I’ve realised that it is harder than it appears to use SMT. Although I am clear about which pair to trade, and in which direction, when SMT shows divergence, I am still struggling to actually use the tool. I cannot decide which time frame to set it to (that may be part of the issue), but overall I am finding it is not filtering trades effectively for me. I gather from what you say here that the idea is that ‘the banks’ take the opportunity of relatively high prices, say, to sell (distribute) and that this will be detectable on one pair before the other, but that it should be expected to happen on both pairs. On that basis, if one pair starts to falter, it signals that the other might soon do likewise. This would appear to suggest that both pairs are poised to fall in price - or does it just mean that they will hover around until the banks have cooled off? Does anyone have more light to shed on this?
One other factor that seems to not be clicking into place for me is the observation of past S&R lines. I am drawing in the highs and lows of the last four weeks, last five months, last four quarters, and both the calendar year and year-to-date. It is surprising, with all these lines in place, including all the recent daily highs and lows, how much empty, S&R-free, space there is. I would have thought that I’d be spotting confluences of S&R in too many places; in fact, it is the opposite.
On a more general note, now that some time has elapsed, has anyone who started out using the methods on this thread now achieved consistent monthly (even weekly) success? I am finding I more or less break even week after week. I am wondering when the tide will turn.
Still plugging away, Pajo.
I can say my trades are consistently profitable when I apply the tools correctly (as long as I don’t nod off at the screen). Whenever I have significant losses, I can always trace it back to a personal error (greed, impatience, etc.).
I’ve been practicing on and off for about two months now. Right now, I’m in the red but I’m pretty close to break even.
I also shy away from the SMT divergence. I get the big picture concept, that we’re looking for divergence at support levels where one of the pairs is trading up to a resistance level and the other is failing to do so. We take the view that the other is failing because the smart money is driving it down, and look to short; this only works in one direction. ICT, is this the correct interpretation of what you’re saying. I remember the video last Wed evening showed this with E$ and G$, but perhaps another opportunity to focus on an example will come up - I’ll go back and watch again. Apologies, in my case it’s taking me a bit to grasp.
The SMT is a CONFIRMATION tool.
You need to identify Key S&R levels as ICT has said in his above post.
You are looking for key S&R levels on your higher TF’s and waiting for price to trade to these levels, when price is at one of these levels you then apply the other tools you were given being pivots, OTE, institutional levels, kill zones etc and should you say ok I will take a trade at this level based on these tools if you THEN see SMT divergence between the 2 pairs you have confirmation of your trade.
Look at the 3900 level on Fiber and go to a 1 hour chart, You will see this is a resistance level. Just the fact that we are trading up to this level you should have a little ringing bell in your head saying “potential short”. So say you were looking to get short at around 3900, then you see CABLE start failing to get above Friday’s high while FIBER has already blown above Friday’s high. You have confirmation that this trade just became an even higher probability trade.
Try drawing SMT divergence on the actual charts like I do instead of using an overlay chart,
Use it on 1 hour chart or even a 15 min chart, I do not look at divergence on a 5 min chart unless I am in a trade and see it unfolding, alerting me to book profits or close out.
The application of this tool comes with practice, you have to watch it unfold real-time to get a “feel” for using it, It is easy to spot divergence in hindsight, real time is when it counts.
The failure of 1 pair to break above a high is telling you that this pair is being distributed.Both pairs should fall in price. I have done a lot of work on this tool and while it is possible that the pair that is not being distributed should fall in “sympathy”(due to their high correlation), i look at this and say while the one was being distributed the other experienced a stop running event but the intent was still there to send it down.
The size of the fall in price to unfold can be roughly determined by the size of the divergence between the 2 highs. Divergence on higher TF’s is a lot stronger than divergence on a 5 min chart.
As far as drawing S&R levels I think you are over doing it, scroll through the daily,4 hour and 1 hour and look for key levels, take into account previous days high and low, previous weeks high and low, and maybe 1 or 2 levels on a smaller time frame where there were clear reactions. Look at ICT’s previous PCT video, that is mostly what you need to do.
As far as success goes using this method, It takes times. i demo’d for close on to 10 months until i went live. Hard work day in and day out, I literally have a full file of notes and research on everything Michael has taught. You have to really study this stuff, I see guys on here posting trades 1 or 2 day after finding the thread… They are just doing themselves a disservice, What Michael is doing can set you up for life, it should not be taken lightly. At first there will be losses and then breakeven and then slowly but surely profit. I look for 8%-10% a month, last week making 2.33%, nothing outstanding but my mindset is on a larger account.
You do not know if Cable will pop above Friday’s high ;). But If you identified a key resistance level, and your other tools are lining up for a short then you have a higher probability that your trade will pan out. You will get a “feel” for it by watching price action. It comes with experience. Yesterday Fiber went above Friday’s high and Cable was failing to do so, Cable then rejected and fell at the close of the 4.15am candle, Fiber was still up there till 5am, If you decided to get short Fiber and saw Cable fail to get above Friday’s high and then fall, your trade was confirmed. Sometimes there will be no lag, sometimes there will be, Its all about watching and learning. Hope that helps
Excellent post, Shaunnd. You took the words right out of my mouth! I have also been studying this for close on the same amount of time, and I estimate that I have spent something in the region of 600-800 hours on ICT stuff alone. I also have a full file of notes, and these have been condensed down into 10 laminated sheets that make up my cheatsheets.
Yes, the concepts are simple ones, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are simple to apply. The reason I sometimes digress into less than technical analysis is purely because I believe there is a gap between the science of signals, and the art of applying them. Yes, we have to be firm in our rules, but I think the real progress comes when you become intuitive in the application of the different tools. In short, there is a lag between knowing the tools, and using them successfully. Too many people underestimate the extent of this lag.
Regards
I take my hat off to you, All that + looking after the family, running a business and you still putting in the hours. Success must be around the corner;)
Sucess is already smack-dab in his face right now, everything you’ve just stated is success. 
Regards,
Clark
Currently Long Fiber, 3700, S1, London open killzone, Smt bullish divergence, OTE higher TF’s, USDX OTE at R1 at 77.31, lets see how this one pans out. The SMT is confirming that my decision to get long is correct, Cable is being accumulated, I’m confident I can at least get +30 on this, and wont loose on this trade now, worst case breakeven.
I am however aware of Cable higher highs and Fiber lower highs from yesterdays NY session highs to this mornings Asian Session Highs, but I’m thinking that has just unfolded in the ±90 pip drop to the lows at 3690
One thing that’s always in the back of my mind that Michael talks about is that you can be right even if you have the direction on the day wrong. ie a bounce in a bear market and a pullback in a bull market
+25 at PDL, Stop breakeven
Stopped at breakeven, Small profit, how to be right when you wrong 
I’ve had my fair share of those. ALWAYS ALWAYS take a portion off the table at 20-30 pips.
Hey guys. I’m trading ICTs methods full time and remain confident that there is a high probability I will be able to make a modest but improving living from this within the next 12 months.
My account balance is 14% up on my starting figure from about 7 weeks trading. I’m making plenty of mistakes, mainly induced by success bred greed. Typically I might have a great week and instead of stopping trading, I slightly over leverage a trade with a real tight stop which is just a few pips away from the next S/R level so I’ll “manage” the trade and adjust my SL and hey a +10% week becomes a +5% week. Generally I’m happy and I feel I’m improving, which is all I want.
I wonder if someone could give me a bit of an idiots guide to the COT report. I’ve read up on it but most of what I read presupposes a level of knowledge I don’t have especially when it comes to futures.
Is COT data only derived from the CME? Do other exchanges not deal in FX futures? To feature on the COT report I understand a position needs to be “of reportable size,” so how is it that small specs are trading positions of reportable size?
What is the duration of the future contracts reported on the COT, do they roll over like spot FX or do they reach delivery? When will this information affect the spot price, Tuesdays when they’re reported, Fridays when COT is published or when the contracts are fulfilled?
It seems logical that the COT is a great place to see where M and A activity is taking place by the large comms but speculating in fx futures seems far more risky than in spot fx, is this a fair statement?
Who is taking the other side of these future positions? Both parties are getting the deal they want so is it a case of one party wants to hedge against dollar devaluation whilst the other party wants to hedge against future dollar appreciation? Simple as that or what other reasons are institutions taking these large future positions?
Sorry about that lot guys, as you can see I just don’t get the COT and this maybe why I have difficulty interpreting the report. As I’ve said I have read about it but still don’t get what’s going on from a big picture perspective. Can you recommend me some relevant reading, should I learn about futures in general?
That’s it. Hope you’re all well, cheers Dunc.
