Just taken a trade, GBP/USD.
Felt market flow was up on 4hr and 1 hr, got in at 1.60218, stop at 1.60000, took first profit at 1.6042 and moved stop to 1.60250. Got stopped out after nasty whipsaw just before New York open but happy with profit, might have been able to get in slightly earlier but was away from PC for a moment.
hi guys,
i have a wonderful trade to share which is a winner. BUT: i would have taken a loss and i have no idea how to avoid this in the future.
let’s look at the image: we had
- support at 1.3705 which was near yesterdays low
- round number 1.3700 is near
- Pivot Support 1 at 1.3709
OK, we know that a reversal is very likely. Price bounces…perfect…i use my fib tool and enter near .062-retracement (between 1.3710 and 1.3714). i set my sl 10 pips below the low at 1.3686.
and what happens? my stop gets triggered, i miss the move.
i know it looks easy afterwards because it is a turle soup but i really had no idea that it would come when i entered the market.
so the question is: how to be profitable?? shall i trade without stops? shall i use no stops? shall i only trade turtle soup-patterns?
i really hate these scenarios: the idea behind the trade is clear but a clear winner becomes a loser because of a wring entry/wrong sl.
mhhh, help would be appreciated 
thanks
There was SMT divergence so that would have been something to notify you to get back in the trade, and generally 20-30 pip SL would help out. That trade went just over 20 pips, but again SMT divergence. So even if you were trying to be tight to have more on the table you had the opportunity to get back in.
Also, understanding ICTs methods a bit more and taking into consideration previous days key low; Smart Money was simply being bullies and stomping out some stops for the move higher hah.
For me a ten pip Stop is just too tight, particularly in the current climate. I am not knocking - risk appetite is one of the things that varies from trader to trader, and with a tighter Stop a better R:R is possible but at the expense of more losing trades, both approaches can work well as long as one understands the nuances and implications - but personally I think that ten pips is just too tight unless one is simply looking to scalp. Setting Stops too tight can mean that one can have a losing trade despite calling a move correctly, as Price rarely simply moves in one direction with no retracement, in my opinion.
ST
hey simon, my stops was 10 pips below the low but my entry was not at the low. the entry was near the .62 retracement at 14. my stop was 28 pips at 86. eu went to 80 before heading north.
price went exactly 34 pips against me ebfore eu started north. and 34 pips is too much for a stop.
Apologies, that will teach me to slow down when reading stuff!!
Without knowing your approach in the round it is tough to be too specific with feedback, but I would not say that 34 pips is necessarily too much for a Stop - I took a decent AUD/USD Long last Thursday, off the Hourly chart, and my Stop was 49 pips, gave me 2:1 or so IIRC; I don’t go in with a set size for my Stop, but do look to protect it behind a level on the chart. As long as my TP gives me at least 1:1 R:R then I will happily have a Stop much larger than 34 pips, although on other occasions I will take something more around 25 pips or so.
Anyway, I have slightly lost my own thread, and am cautious about being too specific as I don’t know your Entry Price etc and have already made one basic error in responding to you (sorry!), but I would certainly not say that 34 pips is too much for a Stop. I find that Price often takes an intake of breath against the direction of a move before heading off in the direction I expect; even with a sound understanding of S&R this sometimes takes out a Stop, it’s just part of the business. Think of it as a business expense!
Sorry for misreading your original post, my bad.
ST
I agree, a 10 pip SL is too tight for a new trader. I usually go with a standard 30 pip SL. ICT said quite some time ago that a new trader should start off with a SL of about 30 pips until you get more experience. A larger SL with fewer lots has kept me in a lot of trades I otherwise would have been stopped out on
Good question. I take the Asian session to end at the beginning of the LO kill zone at 7am GMT. This is when the Frankfurt and Paris exchanges open so I assume that any price action between 7 and 8am (London Open) is more likely due to them than to Tokyo.
Also the highest high/lowest low between midnight GMT and 7am GMT is often made after 2am but before Europe has opened - so it must be due to Asian traders.
I’d be interested to hear other people’s take on this.
Nice London Open Trade 11/07/11
GBP/USD Trade…
- 1HR & 4HR Market Flow was up.
- Bullish SMT Divergence
- Confluence of 1.6000 Figure, Friday’s CPP, Today’s MS1, OTE in Buy Zone.
I will sign up for a file hosting service soon so you can actually see my images I post…
If you look at this same chart when NY Opens on the GBP/USD price failed to hold above Friday’s Daily High Range…
- EUR/USD failed to make a higher high from Sundays Open.
- Bearish SMT Divergence
- Confluence of 1.6080 level, Sunday’s High & Friday’s High, Today’s R1
- Turtle Soup Pattern
The great thing about Turtle Soup Pattern’s once you see them happening you can look at the other pair EUR/USD and see it formed an OTE at the 1.3800 level with confluences of CPP causing the Bearish SMT Divergence.
As soon as you opened that screen and you had the chart laid out with the the previous weeks TT it just looked really intuitive. My mind just gets blown away with some of this technical analysis stuff because as a finance student you are constantly being told about efficient markets.
So the thread has been open about 13 months now, anyone making consistent monthly profits on a live account yet? The people with really impressive results early on in the thread seem to have disappeared. It would be nice if someone would come forth and share their success stories 
Hello, Dess
You are correct that the LO Kill Zone begins at 0700 GMT (during northern hemisphere winter, November-March).
However, regarding the stock exchanges in Paris and Frankfurt, both the NYSE Euronext Exchange in Paris, and the Deutsche Boerse AG in Frankfurt open at [B]9am CET (Central European Time) which is 0800 GMT[/B] during northern hemisphere winter.
cause there basking in their glory! I hope!
Me - no- as I normally do, I am trying to define that 1 setup/trade, that I can call my bread - then I’d like to find one more to call my butter - so that I can “ALWAYS” count on something positive. I’ve only been around this thread for a month or so . … .but my account was positive for more than a few weeks -unlike normal - - - I have hope.
Ummmm watch the video below
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about 5 posts ago
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if it ain’t xmas - holy cow
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and if you know me - cow is not what I really said
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/
ok- so speaking of cow. . .anyone in for some lame cow humor -
this is a real conversation I had with supervisor - many years ago - -
Super = Cow are you doing?
Me = What?
Super = Cow are you doing?
Super = Udderly Fantastice?
Me = lol - yeah!
Super = Cow are things going?
Me = Mooing right along! He He
Hey AK,
In short, I’m still here, creeping around.
Doing well, if you want to talk, feel free to PM me or something. I can get into more of the specifics.
Regards,
Clark
So the Paris, Frankfurt and LSE all open at the same time, that being 08:00 GMT. I guess what is confusing is that you stated in your notes (for which I am very grateful) that the European business day starts at 07:00 GMT an hour before exhanges open, and the UK business day starts at 08:00 GMT [I]when[/I] the LSE opens. What is your criteria for the start of a business day if not the opening of the exchanges?
(The Italian exchange opens at 07:00 GMT, and the Spanish one at 07:30 GMT, but surely the German and French exchanges would see the most volume)
London Kill Zone is an hour before exchanges open in London, and an hour before the start of the business day. In this respect we can assume that it is the London traders moving the markets from the start of LO Kill Zone.
I guess the question is, are European traders moving the currency markets an hour before their business day starts (2 hours before their main exchanges open), i.e from 06:00 GMT, or are the Tokyo traders trading after their exchange closes at 06:00 GMT?
Looking at the Cable action from just yesterday, you could say that the low set in NY open was keying off the Asian range low set i) during the Asian KZ ii) during the Tokyo exchange times (up to 06:00 GMT), but NOT iii) the end of Tokyo’s business day.
Does anyone have any further insights?
Regards
Ali