great stuff as always…
few things maybe coincided i think,
when the price went up, thats when they announced interest rate,when it slammed down ecb Draghi was speaking…engineered or not, levels play your way many many times,and u r the real inspiration…
learning to spot the london open, seeing it coming your way, hope soon my way as well.
//FRANKY is usually fake,or rather london barely follows - OTE sounds like a fair deal//
trying to get mentality,if i miss the london train,its a miss,leave alone those scalps in between,even if i can 2 a degree…NO.have read yr interview how u trade and yr life, thats the way,
sniper it and leave it.
not pushing it much before xmas,getting it into my eyes,hunting for OTE in those correct places,
before was looking mostly for that mentioned price confirmation,when its confirmed u have yr SL BE a banked part of it.
been in and out this thread,watched yr vids and all,but, the real thing came when u took the mil challenge and i saw it myself,finally!!! somebody is putting the money //literally :-)// where his mouth is…and i am glad i watched those vids and watched it on market 2 a degree,and now with those bonus puzzles u spoon feed us with,i am not that lost and have a grasp on what u say //put it into action is/will b another story///,as u said correctly - 2 show u all the material at once, u wouldn’t get it
.
beside, when listening 2 u, such nice, calm person, delivering in such nice,humble normal way…been out there, when u pay all are nice,but forget to put the money where their mouth is…others free ones might have big ego,let alone their teaching is remote from yrs //paid services as well//.
u said,’‘i dont need yr money, i have enough’’,thats the line!!! thats a successful trader…and just seconding - they sell what they cant trade…and foremost u genuinely try to help others to change their lives. outstanding person. all kudos 2 u.
immensely thx and i hope i ll b one of those writing his story one day
add// those templates for london open should b made illegal, seems like
I am literally spending my weekends and free nights attempting to catch up going through all the material. I don’t think I paid this much attention in all of high school and college.
Just extracted 75 pips from the market on this OTE/R1 confluence. Can’t believe how quickly this worked out! I was worried it wouldn’t hit target before the weekend…
edit:
and the Blue Zone is the “no man’s land” from trader’s trinity
and the pivots shown are New York Close pivots…I toggled to those after entering, the New York Midnight pivots have a lil better confluence
You’re seeing things correctly. At this point, ICT has only released 3 videos from the ForeXmas sack. We have the titles of other days, but not videos.
ICT hasn’t been clear on his release schedule except he is immesely enjoying the torture from us by the desire to open all the presents in the sack and he controls the release.
If I had to guess, I would bet ICT is releasing videos when a certain day or type of setup plays out to increase the instructional value. Rather than going back and cheey picking examples…I think he’s releasing templates as they play out. But that’s just my guess.
Enjoy the thread. Ask questions. Review the videos and previous thread posts, including the original thread from 2010 (it should be at the bottom in the ‘Similar Threads’ section. It’s in the prior thread where more discussion on the ‘Smart Money Tool’ or SMT is discussed some.
Don’t be afraid to post thoughts and analysis or trade setups you’re seeing. The thread community seems to be getting more engaged in this rather than relying on ICT for analysis.
Also…if you’re looking for an indicator or tool…use the ‘search thread’ function as there’s likely previous posts that they have been provided.
Nice pip extraction Akeakamai. I was eying a similar opportunity to get short on Cable at NYO based on multiple confluences - if you look at GBP/USD and EUR/USD chart they look almost identical so far today - but price never retraced to the OTE level on the 5min. chart at R1 so didn’t trigger the trade.
I’m a little curious about your stop & entry as, from the chart, it looks like your SL is right at the swing high (i.e. not above it) and the distance from entry to stop loss is greater than 30 pips. Did you fine tune your risk management further or does the chart give all the info?
Either way, congrats on being on the winning side of the lightning strike.
Yes, my stop was greater than 30 pips. My stop was at 3470, above the swing high, but I intended on exiting the trade before then if I was still at the charts. I will often make the stop greater than 30 pips for “comfort sake” and then manually exit before then… I guess that isn’t textbook but doing my best to adapt the tools to my own psychology
Thinking through this a little more…I kinda wished price on the cable went up and pierced the 1.5780 ITH established on 11/30. The “leaving the footprint” to indicate a bottom was coming (I.E. leave a footprint…retrace, then move higher).
Until we pierce that ITH…it’s there giving a bearish market structure IMHO.
Getting a sense that today will be a “Z day”. It’s Friday…the rumor mill from the EU summit is over (my suspicion for the quick move up and retrace today).
ADR filled. It’s Friday.
Somewhat expect price to drift back up to fair vaule (the CPP).
I’m long on a Friday scalp…Entered at the end of NYO at 1.5625. Expecting a drift up to the CPP. Set my TP at yesterdays MR1 at 1.5654. Just below CPP. Works out to be a 1:1 R/R trade. SL at 1.5692 (30 pips plus spread).
Well this is my first post on this site. Micheal you have been a god send with what you have shared with us all so far. Only the better and meater subjects will follow. We have to crawl, walk then stumble, walk some more then run and trip over some hurdles in route.As long as we have the concepts you are teaching half figured out the better for trading with the glasses and lights on. No trading in the dark. I have blown the first account and sit down and studied much more. Stumbled on your presentation and the gates opened. I started with $500 dollars and grew it $300 more dollars then decided to put the last $500 dollars into the acount. I am appying your tools to enter and exit trades and they are uncany dead on. No words will thank you If you are still on baby pips I will send you a copy on my final balance lets say september next year.
So a question with sort of 2 different meanings for asking;
Meaning 1 - literally
Meaning 2 - reality.
So my interpretation on R:R (sorry a little off topic, but I think lose more because of too high of expectations)
If a perfect OTE set up occurs and you set your stoploss at 10 pips above/below previous H/L - -and that number just happens to be spot on 30 pips from your entry point.
Literal part here – I believe ICT and whomever will 100% or near 100% of the time take a portion lets say 50% fore example sake; off at Plus 30 pips then move to break even? yes? So assuming this scenario-
Your R:R in my opinion is more like 1:2 because - - at taking 100% off at plus 30 pips you R:R would have been 1:1 – but since you don’t get ‘rewarded’ but just 50% - then u do run risk of (thats all you made - while intitally taking on full risk).
So in reality you risked 30 pips at possible 100% loss - - and by taking 1/2 off you need now to hit 60 pips profit on the second 1/2 to again get to a 1:1 R:R. (ok second thought here - you don’t need to hit 60 pips to gain the 1:1 R:R - but you do have to close out at plus 30 pips or better)
So literally - am I thinking correctly - yes - your R:R does go up a bit by taking a portion off?
So in reality - it sort of sits in my mind - - IF you are gaining pips - don’t sweat the details of it - (ie what I asked here really is irrelevant?)
By taking a portion off…your R:R goes down just as you describe. If you take 50% off at 30 pips (with an initial SL of 30 pips) and move stop to BE…then get stopped out the remaining 50% at BE…your RR is .5.
What you’re doing in this case is hoping the move goes much more in your favor. If your entering a LC scalp, or Sunday night whiplash on the weeks opening, I don’t think you’d do anything but a scalp. Take 100% of at your TP level (on a LC…you might play with the retracement level or a few things…but usually not more than 20 or so pips.
But if you’re entering a swing trade…you’re hoping the price moves to 123, 150 or even 200 extension…and on a position trade, you’re hoping for a swing to an outer larger fib for many more pips.
What you’re trying to do is take some money off and get into position of being riskless…then trying to maximize.
For example…I’ve posted yesterday potential retracement levels for the cable that we might reasonably see. If you enter a trade…and take it all off at 3 pips. You’ve made your 30 pips (or 2% ROE) and need to start sniping a new setup. A position trade…you’re hoping to get a trade that is a 3, 4, 5, or more R:R. Hit one of those and you’ve pocketed 6-10% in one trade.
The basis comes from trend following systems. They have a low win rate on trades…but when they win, they tend to win big. The “take a portion off at 30 and let the rest run” is a blend between them that can be adjusted dependning on where you anticipate the market moving to.
Personally…I’m hoping for a 2:1 trade win ratio…and an appraoch where I take 50% at a level equal to my SL. That means I am at break even on equity from this initial TP (I take half off, but win twice as often).
Then let trades reach for higher trying to procure more gains. That’s where I’m planning my equity to really grow.
You’re thinking about if right…
Youe ROE is less than 1 when you take your initial TP…bu you’re hoping for a bigger move that will end up much greater than a 1:1 R:R.
Thanks guys -
This will fix at least one of my faults - I previously entered every trade, with the assumption - we really don’t know where it’s going -so ALWAYS leave a bit on and see - simply gambling with profits - it does make sense; however especially when trading near the mid point - have a specific -attainable target -and scalp it - - - and conversely know when/why etc. . you could be in a position to get a position trade - then allow the portion to run - - -he he he get it. thanks again.
And unfortunately - i get that I still have a ways to go – - shoot anyway.
Today for example - I am in the same trade as U LearnintoPimpPips - - on the NY open bounce back into the range - I set my TP MUCH higher than U did - and off to work I go no way to manage the trade - -but at the moment - I see I would have been up 20ish at one point - I’d probably have takens some off - and moved to 20 pip SL - (free trade) but I can’t and so HOPING on it through the weekend - - simply not smart -
I’m working with a partial close EA - hoping this will solve ‘this type’ of problem - but understanding where/when I am in the market - and then what to expect - is a huge huge difference in my thought process . . .
Worst case scenario, you could always call your broker to close/manage a trade. If you’re on a demo you might not really care but if you’re trading a live account it’s always good to have their number handy. Which reminds me, I need to save mine
