i dont c that EU as a failed trade completely,i like, that the swing’s low was lower low.
in this trade if entered at OTE few chances to bank 20-30 pips with SL either to BE or reduce risk…i hope we talk about the same one…
i am not trading but in my previous posts could b seen, when modest - even wrong can b profitable , stolen quote of course
Also…8:30ET (13:30GMT) was a drop of 4 economic news releases for the US. Initial Unemployment Claims and continuing claims, Empire Manufacturing Index, PPI and current account balance.
I entered my losing trade at 7:45ET, and got stopped at 8:37ET. Some of the run up in the EU could be news driven.
Hmm you’re right… I guess I don’t need to stay awake until it reaches that point then? hahaha
But personally, do you think Cable will make it down there, or is the 162 all we will see?
I have learned so many things these past 3 weeks (since I started looking into Forex)… and it is so hard to connect the dots… I hope at some point during 2012 to reach a level of confidence to go life on a small account… but tons of work ahead before I reach that point;)
Thanks a lot for your comments and help! and as always: thanks ICT!
Build a daily model for today’s price action…not sure…
On GU…looks like price broke above the asian range during the 3am gmt candle by a little bit, then traded down to the OTE for yesteday’s PDL and NY session swing high from the 1800 candle and also to the 161 extension of the TT for this week.
This formed bullish divergence from the EU because EU made a lower low at this point.
Price then went up and through the asian range taking out the swing high from yesterday’s 1800 candle. This looks a little bit like a seek and destroy pattern, but we are far away from no man’s land where we would normally look for that pattern.
Price then retraced to the asian range and found support at the pivot.
I guess looking at GU now, it looks like a buy day template, where it found support at a fib from yesterday, the 161 extension, and the lows of the bodies of the daily candles that formed the october low. If we disregard the wicks from the candles that formed the oct low on GU…the bodies are closing at the 1.5430 level.
Am I in the ballpark??? Think I might have touched it with just now noticing the bodies of the candles from the Oct low and the 161 extension of this week’s TT. Pretty signifianct support level.
I’m just jumping into the discussion here, and it has probably been said already, but LO entry for Fiber looks to be keying off the November 30th 2010 low right on 1.2968. The OTE 79% to go long came in at 1.2964 today.
I think you’re seeing that being true in the flow of posts today. Clark had a winning short trade at LO. PureMuscle and I were trading it at NYO which I don’t think could have worked out using an OTE for entry.
So I think every agrees that a short at LO could have worked. But was a failed trade at NYO.
We have traded lower for several day… into a Daily swing low… where we could always reasonably anticipate a “bounce” even if we are correct in our longer term directional bias.
We have seen range expansion on the lower side and now that it’s obvious on the charts… the Retail Traders that didn’t see it or didn’t trust it… now suddenly want to take a Train ride to Southtown… but the Train just hit a reroute and the LO presented a Buy Day template. Low made in first third of the day… zoom… squeezing the late comers. More to it… as you will learn in the Reversal Market Profile.
Cable…ah yes! Michael, while you are online and offering up your time generously, could I ask you a question regarding COT. The 20%OI sell-offs that you mentioned…they ALWAYS come on the last day of the Futures contract. Can you explain why, and possibly confirm that this has a bearing on the seasonal tendencies for Cable which makes lows at this time of the year.
What you are seeing is the Futures contract roll over to the new front month. You have to consider this and it will be covered in the 25th day of your wait.
hahaha
Why oh why do I get too scared to pull the trigger :"(
