So I have two “big” things that I took into account in addition. To the confluences of S/R that I posted earlier.
4h MF was bullish, which is what ICT has said to use preferentially over daily and 1 hour
looking at daily candles, we had a LTL or ITL form a few days ago, so we looked for longs yesterday (3rd candle after fractal low) and I thought that there was no reason for the move not to continue up
Add in COT data and seasonal tendency and I thought that lined up well for longs…
Just frustrated.
I see what you guy are saying about TT and daily pivots. But monthly TT was in the sell zone and we not too long ago took out some long term lows, which I think bodes well for a reversal market.
Michael, (or others) do you have any thoughts on my analysis?
I don’t see SMT divergence at the 8amGMT timeframe to use as a filter. I do see the EU Asia range was 30 pips, while GU was 20 pips. SO a larger EU Asia. But SMT…both were making higher highs at the 8am GMT timeframe when the high of the day was put in. And both pairs were retesting close to the NY high from yesterday (PDH).
the market structure on the 4 hour is bearish. Market Flow was bullish, but market structure (using ITL, ITH, LTL, LTH) was bearish. We haven’t broken the most recent ITH.
ICT recently stated, in the open access session last night, in a sell program, we have an 80% chance that the weeks high will be put in by Tue. We are in a sell program still.
Price yesterday consolidated in an OTE using 2 weeks ago weekly high, and last weeks weekly low. (see chart). higher timeframe market structure is pointing to bearish conditions.
My take is yesterday was the judas swing higher for a lower long term move lower. Using judas swing concept on a higher timeframe…move higher…even across days…to setup the engineered move lower.
ANd one last thing…I don’t know if there is a “right” or “wrong” analysis. Your analysis was solid. We are really dealing in probabilities. We can’t expect our analysis to be right all the time. In hindsight, we will be able to construct a scenario to see what was missed and what the market was really doing. But we are in the business of predicting based on probabilities.
Thanks for the response, it was very helpful. It’s just hard for me when I see what I consider are strong indications in both directions. I just hope with more experience and study time that it will become more clear and I’ll be able to be more in tune with the market.
looking at the weekly chart on the cable, the long term trend continues to be bearish. Playing around with projection techniques I’m just starting to pick up on…from the STL the week of 10/2, to the STH the week of 10/30, we have the 127 extension at the 1.50 area. Also using the measuring stick from the same high to the low of the consolidation area, moving it to the high of the consolidation area, again we have a low in the 1.50 area. If price does continues to move down into this area, pull a fib from the May 2010 LTL to the April 2011 ITH, and it sets up a nice OTE area. This would also take out some stops along the way.
Divergence on Forex Ltd but not on my Oanda feed. I had a down bias for today but I thought they might try to judas raid the stops from the Dec. 28th. Also take a look at the USDX daily chart. Key support level with ote at ~79.58
I couldnt let this one go by. LTL has been broken and wont be bullish till LTH is broken, ITH broke but could be just to make a Lower LTH but if it forms another ITL completing LTL then higher prices can be expected. Basicly wait.
Guy’s I’ve said it before, you really have to study those boring silient vids at the begining with a fine tooth comb over and over again, neally all the answers to your questions about anything ICT is there. Take notes.
I’m finding some absolute GOLD in those first videos that I’ve been going over the past couple days. Taking the notes that I should have taken the first time around, I’m definitely not going to be forgetting that material a second time.
Hey mozdef, thanks for the upload. I tried to record Part 2, but it was too long and when I stopped recording and tried rendering, my computer froze and I lost my recording… Not sure if you’d be able to take my place and record Part 2 for everyone as well?
I’ve probably looked at that Market Structure video 9-10 times already. And I still have a hard time understanding how its dynamic fits in with the rest of the material. It’s the one thing I don’t understand. Thanks for the analysis.
