Here is my interpretation of the homework for Friday Jan 6th 2012 as per the IT Open Access livestream event from last night. It starts at roughly 2:46 into the video so do check it out yourself :59:
Post 3 examples, BUY or SELL, of what has been discussed in the event: scalping scenarios where you could have applied the concept
3 examples each, so 9 total, using NZDUSD, GBPJPY, AUDCAD
Position is in 2 parts: T1 (Profit Target 1): 50% off, 50% at T2
move S/L to B/E at T1
T1 at +20 pips, T2 at B/E (if price retraces after T1 has been hit) or LC (1500 GMT) or 1800 GMT or (optional) ADR
Stopout at B/E or at loss
Cannot re-enter for another trade
What is total profit potential
How would the trade have unfolded
What entry pattern would you have used
Where would your S/L have been
Would you have been stopped out with a loss and if so where
Would you have been stopped out after your initial 20 pips would have been made and if so where
What would the remaining portion have been: what is profit potential in getting out at LC (1500 GMT) and 1800 GMT
Post a chart or the actual times of entries/exits etc.
In case of any errors, please post them :13:
I hope this is of help.
The difficult thing in this is that the dollar isnât measured against an absolute reference point (I.E. gold), but relative reference points (other currencies). This makes valuation of the dollar based on the US economy difficult because valueing the dollar is like trying to be the prettiest cross dresser in a harley davidson biker bar. They are all ugly.
Left along to natural market forces, I would expect the dollar to strengthen (just becuase the EZ, China, BRICâs, etc are showing significant signs of strain) and then the US time will come and it would fall.
The wildcard though is no country wants a strengthening currency now b/c that will stall recovery from the global recession. If the dollar strengthens too much, we can anticpate Fed intervention to weaken the dollar. I donât think they will let it get too strong because that would crush the US economy.
I think this is why the Banks are loaded up long on COT reports. There is widespread anticipation that the Fed will do more QE this year. But weâre in a catch 22. The the political climate has to change to want the fed to do something. For that to happen, the stock market has to drop (like S&P in the 900 range). Given correlationsâŚthat would drive EU/GU lower. The Banks have been betting for QE for so long though, if the price dropped that low, they would have significant losses. If you look at volume on the S&P, over 70-80% of the volume if High Frequency Trading and its computers manipulating price back and forth between each other. Retail money has been leaving the US market in droves (even from the October rally later 2011âŚretail money was leaving the market). So the price has to drop, but the computers doing HFT wonât let it as they see buying opportunities as price moves down. SO the S&P is just rangingâŚretail has pulled a lot of money out.
The Banks are kinda stuck. The Fed is stuck until political climate changes. There will be a buying opportunity when the Fed does QEâŚbut the banks are already on the side of the boat and priced it inâŚbut they are early. Will be interestingâŚbecause too much dollar stengthening will bring down the stock market, which brings QEâŚwhich weakens the dollar.
Totally agree with that, but I pegged today as a LO sell, set my alarm to get up then⌠And just slept right thru it. Just a personal fail at sleep discipline
Could you guys please point me to how can I attend the ICT livestream sessions?
I admit I havenât read all the posts in the thread⌠will do of course.
my trade today: short Cable @ 1.56670 on the bull candle.
Great but at 2:00am and not quite awake, I forgot to change my volume and left it at .01 instead of .10. Well 85 pips later I can brag about a nice .85 cent profit! oh well good to know the tools I was looking at worked⌠itâs about building confidence.
Looking at the Cable and Fiber todayâŚFiber was the bigger mover. In ICTâs 10 minute video describing todayâs trade, he was using Fiber and indicated a reasonable ability to capture 140 pips today. Looking at the Cable, I see about 65 pips available for capture.
Any idea on deciding between which of the pairs to trade? It seems ICT goes between cable and fiber, and usually intends to be on the one that presents the bigger move.
Just curious how to pick between the two. I donât see a compelling reason to go for one over the other today.
ICT says: Wide asian range gives huge london session move, so this must be the reason, plus SMT divergence of courseâŚ
however I was aiming at the cable today, realise the above later in the day⌠:rolleyes:
Iâm curious about this as well. Just a shot in the dark - maybe the one that had a smaller previous dayâs range could be expected to have a larger range day today? Coupled with SMT divergence maybe it lends further credibility to favor one over another.
Well, if there is a clear answer to this question, I would certainly like to know.
Look at the ADR of the pairs and go with the one that has more room. Also If there is was an SMT divergance then pick the pair that went stop hunting as it will generally have the biggest swing. Thats really all you can do. Others might have a better opinion
Hi,
I am starting to work through this thread and the videos.
I just watched the âExploring the Asian Rangeâ Video and I have a question about that.
Maybe ICT or any other person can answer this for me. The help would be appreciated greatly.
In the video he keeps saying that in the Asian range the âmarket accumulates longs/shortsâ. Does this mean that the majority of candles are bullish/bearish in the range? I have tried to reproduce this on various charts with the help of the asian session indicator, but it doesnt seem to follow that.
