My bias is short too. Taking a long today doesn’t mean a shift in bias for long/intermediate term movement. My main consideration is on the weekly we haven’t had a meaningful retrace for a while and price doesn’t have a swing high reference point recently on this chart. While I expect price to move lower…I’m somewhat expecting a retrace to give a new swing point for reference on market structure.
It was a buy bias for today and a few hours. We had a large move down on Friday. a quiet day yesterday, and then price started up in the AR after GMT midnight. Price exited the AR during LO…gave a retrace to the AR high at NYO with an OTE. Took a long anticipating price to fulfill the ADR. I got 30 pips…moved SL to BE, and have been stopped out. I entered this anticipating a scalp…and also anticipating what the market would have to do to create a judas swing for a move lower tomorrow.
With price above the pivot point and weekly open…a swing trade I take would be short. But that wasn’t my mindset entering this scalp.
i really don’t understand the logic behind cable tanking where it did? I know the market doesn’t care too much about my logic anyways… but could someone enlighten me?
didn’t watch the fiber, so maybe the cable tanked because of the fiber? or can anyone else give me some hints?
I did notice the bearish divergence and the confluence of a bearish OTE and the R2… but other than that?!?
It seriously drives me crazy right now…
I see how much sense it would make for the smart money to drive price up and take out the old high and its SLs… but I see these confluences that point to a quicker than expected move down… I either believe these signs could relate to the setup in my mind, OR I simply neglect the importance of the signals compared to the “logic” of prices to go higher…
I really need to work on this…especially since I did the same mistake last week and swore to myself not to do it again;) (I guess this is why its driving me crazy right now;))
I do know there will be more opportunities and I do know that tomorrow is another day… I just hate to be wrong;)
a lot of things to learn from all this I guess…
do you guys think that this is already the weekly express?
and do you guys suggest to focus on the fiber better than the cable (if I only want to focus on one until i get better…)
I was trying to trade the LO but price never made it to the levels I was watching. Glad to hear some of you guys managed to pull a few bucks out of the market though!
All of those confluences are around here…It did drop a little sooner than I would have expected…most of those confluences are lining up in the 1.5810 to 1.5815 level. Didn’t quite get there. The distribution must have started at the figure.
haha thanks;)
my main problem is that once I put the idea of price reaching up to a certain point into my stubborn hard head, I can look at confluences and still ignore them… this is my main problem right now;)
Have added plenty of notes in my journal today about this issues;)
Nice. Got my fill at 1.27999. 15:00 gmt candle just knocked out my trailing SL though. Can’t complain about +70 pips – if you’re still in the trade, GL!
Hmmm I like your analysis, mine is reasonably similar, especially with regards to the weekly chart Do you believe that this week’s close will be above the open?
Hahaha it’s scary to think that no one is immune Thanks for admitting though Mike! That’s what makes you different from all these other “mentors”, who would rather die than admit to having made a loss :o
Sorry to be a pain, but can someone in GMT time zone help me with my settings on ICT’s ADR and daily pivot shifted settings. I can’t seem to get mine to come anywhere near what is being posted here today. My broker uses GMT midnight as daily close etc (IBFX in USA).
I find it eerie how that risk management scenario unfolded tonight… Right after we talked about it. Its like you took the loss to prove your point, but i’m sure that can’t be true
I think only ICT can tell you since that picture is too blury to tell. I watched the video as well yesterday night and would apprecaite to know the settings as well.
I finally finished watching the Open Access video last night. Very enlightening to see how to follow a sell program and the multiple entries provided and how you can find an entry point using the 5m GMT candle/Midnight ET. Very enlightening.
One question I had while watching it was the examples were great to follow the sell program. you methodically walked through each day on a expansion downwards. Obviously, the market isn’t always in a trend. I’m curious on how to get a sense that a sell program might be ending and when you would start to view breaks below the asian range as legitamate judas swing entry points instead of false breakouts and anticipating lower movement waiting for the judas to go higher.
That seemed to happen at least once in the sell program. Has there been insight around turning points/movement from trending into consolidation?
Hi Piptripper - I’m using a broker that is GMT+1 and I set my Shift hrs in the dailypivotmacro to -6 and these tally my pivots with ICT’s. So I guess you need to set yours to -5.
Do you believe that this week’s close will be above the open?
Thanks for admitting though Mike! That’s what makes you different from all these other “mentors”, who would rather die than admit to having made a loss :o