Except that fractal lows formed many times this past couple weeks and we were still mostly looking for shorts. Look at past 2 weeks, fractal low was formed either friday or sun/mon and yet we shorted (going long would have been painful). In those weeks we simply saw the fractal low as the opportunity for smart money to drive the price up on monday and tuesday and then drop the price rest of the week. So I think you would have had to know that there has been a significant low formed and then look for longs this week.
Assuming I get down to the .5% risk level, then yes, all trades going forward from that point would be risking .5% until I manage to climb back up to the $980 level at which point the risk would return to 1%, then $1000 will return risk to 2%.
To be honest with you, I did think about doing an account reset at a higher amount, but there is a psychological reason behind my chosing a 50% drawdown. I feel like if I knew that every time the account dropped down to $950 (for example) I would just reset to $1000 then losing wouldnāt have any meaning behind it.
The reason I am only opting to pad the account more when on winning streaks is essentially the same concept as putting on full risk when you are in a winning streak. Adding to the account when in a losing streak is the same as risking the full 2% when in a losing streak.
I guess I somewhat worded it wrong when I said that I would stop trading and re-learn everything only when I am at the $500 level. What I should have said is that if I am in a drawdown of any kind, I will be analyzing why I feel that I am in a drawdown, and how I can prevent it in the future. I donāt plan on stopping my study of this thread and Michaelās concepts weather I am winning or losing.
BTW, Michael asked that we do a 1 shot 1 kill trade this week. I took my shot, but the sight must have been off, it didnāt work out.
Since the man stated 1 trade, Iām done trading for the week and will only be analyzing the market until next week.
So we have Judas, the dreaded Double Judas and we now have Judas Jr.
Smart money wants to keep us guessing.
Iām wondering if I read the COT wrong. I had EUR and GBP looking weak this week, and USD, AUD, and JPY strong. Opposite happened. I wonder what Iām doing incorrectly.
I think ICT gets a little bit of pleasure torturing his ālil snipersā ā¦that āHigh Probability Price Patternsā video has been staring at me for weeks ā¦ some times late at night I think I can hear it talking to meā¦ :eek:
Maybe ICT is taking his time to make us develop more patientsā¦ that is definitely someting I need to work onā¦
In case anyone was curious how this trade turned out:
Closed:
5000 @ 2954
5000 @ 2968
I chickened out on my target, 2980.
ā¦and a chicken I will remain until Monday/Tuesday next week!
I follow the COT on EUR, GBP, and USD. Your analysis would be correct, however we are only looking at the COT for extremes. It has been at an extreme for a while now and the trend has continued, but all trends will have pullbacks to suck more street money into the market before moving lower.
Iām in the same boat. 1 shot, 1 miss this week unfortunately. Wenāt for a LC scalp as price was in the LC kill zone, trading into a long term resistance (daily broker support) at MR2, and there was SMT divergence. Didnāt work out this time, but thats OK, weāll get em next week!
EUR/USD
Pull your Fib from the TT, week of Dec. 11th thru 16thā¦
Look at the 200 extenstion all the way up to todays date week by week. Price really respected that line.
Now look at your 423.6 extenstion, price turned on a dime on this level on this Sunday
Just freakin amazingā¦
Are you not a sniper in training? It happens you now gave up your position so get out alive and try again. I am not a pro of this by any means just what came to mind reading this.
2 Things I see here.
First the way you all use the cot is as an indicator. Look at every indicator on the market can they not be in oversold or over bought conditions for a while before telling you anything.
Lastly all trend will have pullbacks. Correct but not all pullbacks are for getting dumb money in. Dumb money could already be in looking for the pull back. Check smaller time frames and I mean smaller you will find pullbacks. Pullbacks can also be big money collecting profits.
honestly I think what I am seeing alot of here are you sniper jrās are aiming for the wrong target. Your aiming for smart money. Well they are smart money for a reason (they are smarter than you). Your real target is dumb money (us on babypips) They are the one your shooting for. All smart money iis doing is signaling you where the target is. Your a sniper if they scream it to you they will give up there (and your) position. Thus leaving you open to get killed. I think this week we have seen alot of that. Everyone got happy from last week they got there one shot one kill (or others took out smaller targets but still hit there targets with deadly force). Now this week they went out like there **** dont stink and tried to take out everything that moved. ICT preached dont be a machine gunner shooting at everything and not hitting nothing. You brokers (ammo dealers) thank you. But you shed the cash and the blood. Remember smart money may be your enemy but you dont have what it takes to take them down so dont. Listen to them and learn. Always remember the old saying keep you friends close and your enemies closer. Then kill them all when the time is right. Sure I added the last part but it sounded good in my head. I think thats why I have not even stepped on the battle field yet as I am waiting to see where my enemies are so I can find my spot as I listen to ICT with what I already know. I feel bad for the sorry puke thats about to be put in my cross hairs. But feeling are not part of this game. It is business as usual.
Happy trading and good night. I took a nasty loss on the S&P today have had some drinks and going to bed. Looks like I will miss LO once again. I dont trade friday anyway.
COT data has more weight when you look for other confluences. Only time will tell tho
Sorry if this has been questioned before but what are the differences between GMT pivots and NY pivots? I am watching the livestream power of three demo and ICT makes note of both.
Also, a question that has concerned me is are the 30 pip stops that ICT uses a trailing stop by any means? It seems to me that if his target is significantly far from his entry and price doesnāt quite reach the target that moving up the stop would be useful to lock in some gains in the event price moves against him. I ask this because as I start to use the ICT method I am preparing to do it from a swing trading perspective (being in a trade for several days) since I will not be able to trade intraday often, as well as stay in front of my monitor routinely. I hope this makes sense.
Hi Tgoldberg
GMT pivots are calculated at 00:00 GMT
NY pivots are calculated at NY midnight, so your settings in the pivot indicator should be -5 (Since NY is GMT - 5 hours)
The result will be that you have two different sets of pivots a few pips apart from each other.
As far as using a trailing stop, I donāt think thatās what ICT does.
When his profit moves to 20 or 30 pips, he moves the stop loss to break even, and takes a percentage off the trade.
That way he has locked in profits on one portion, and on the other he canāt really lose.
A trailing stop is something you can set on MT4, try it on your demo to see how it works.
ICT is manually moving his stop loss, and I think he can move it later on in the second portion of the trade.
If my answers are not accurate enough, please feel free to correct meā¦Iāve only been part of this thread for about 6 weeks, so any feedback is appreciated.
Paul
Just got stopped out Eur/Usd shortā¦
Short: .2974 ( horrible entryā¦something I need to work on )
S/O : .2907
+67 Pipsā¦:53:ā¦
Before I started following this thread a day like today would have had me confused ā¦are we going up ā¦are we going down ā¦ since following this thread my understanding of price movement has grown by leaps and boundsā¦days like today make trading funā¦Had a planā¦Executed my planā¦One Shot One Killā¦
thatās awesome!
when it starts to feel like the system is trading itselfā¦ and youāre just the guy pushing the buttonsā¦ thatās when youāre in the Zone. Sounds like you were there tonight 
hahahaha from Sunday open to Thursday LC I was staring at my charts for 10-12 hours a day, waiting for that nice judas and the nice bearish swing that comes along with it, and as we all knowā¦ it didnāt happenā¦
I decided to start my weekend a Day early and had a great dayā¦ just came home and what a surpriseā¦ That move I was looking for whole week happened while I was away;) hahaha I guess several lessons to be learned here:
For example:
- S*it happens;)
- Market doesnāt care about me too much;)
- Maybe 12 hours chart time per day is not always necessary;)
- There will be more opportunities to come;)
- āDonāt focus on being rightā¦focus on being profitable insteadā
- maybe I should notify all of you on the forum whenever I leave my chartsā¦ so you can all get ready for a big move;)
- Next week is coming up soon;)
and many more hahaha
congrats to all of you who had a successful week;)
have a great weekend
so long
fredy
Your target was within 6 pips of the weekly high.
But anywaysā¦Outstanding trade. Absolutely fantastic.
Did you risk 2% with an initial stop loss at 30 pips? If soā¦thatās about a 14% return right there.
Whatās wrong with 2974 for an entry. Thatās within 12 pips of the highā¦and there was no discernible OTE to really nail down a tighter entry.