I will probably regret posting such blathering later but…
I was thinking about the Judas and the fractal nature of price charts and then I saw these recent posts. It seemed to be related.
Price only closes over a line depending on what TF you’re looking at. Price never really closes.
We expect the Judas to go poking beyond the Asian range and it’s amazing how often that it does. Sometimes it does not fake that far before getting into the body of the daily candle. Maybe a day with no proper Judas but the daily chart may still show a wick. So if we consider that the distance price moves from the [I]daily open line [/I]could also be a Judas only on a smaller time frame, say a 4hr Judas or an 8hr Judas or whatever, then it soon begins to look like every wick on every candle on every TF on the chart is potentially a Judas. Maybe that’s too much, but price patterns on charts are fractal in nature. 1 day could be a wick on the weekly chart.
I can’t say Judas = wick because price could make a smaller Judas and then zig zag around to further extremes and still be within the wick for the day, maybe a smaller Judas within a larger Judas. Sometimes Judas does = wick.
Isn’t this the same as pin bars, or dragonfly dojis, tombstone dojis? Are these just a smaller fractal Judas? (assuming they are on a smaller TF chart)
Someone else said that “wicks show the way not” Well, a Judas is simply the way not, is it not? And by wick I don’t necessarily mean the actual wick we see because just changing time frames will make wicks appear and disappear, but price is price and it’s still simply either going up or down. For example, railroad tracks being a pin bar on another TF.
All this may already be obvious to those who have spent more time than me looking at price charts.
On the other hand maybe I’m over thinking the whole thing.
hahaha yes I was doing my daily routine before LO when I saw price making new lows and entered on a lonely bull candle… (the remaining open position of yesterdays stubborn cable trade got stopped out at BE+2pips) So Its nice to have entered this trade even before London opened hahaha makes up (a little bit) for watching fiber drop like hell yesterday;)
could be interesting to see if price makes it down to 1.57 reaction area+ bullish OTE before LO.
already made a healthy 30 pips before my trading day even started and SL at BE+2 can’t complain;) Although as I entered outside of Killzone I entered on 0.25% risk HAHAHAHA so if I was life, this trade’s profit could have paid at least for my breakfast;)
"I love the smell of Napalm in the morning"
Happy Hunting
0.25% on $1,000,000 is $2,500. Get 3:1 on that trade and that equals $7,500!!
Breakfast for the next 3 years…
edit:
personally, I’m looking for the UK release to catalyze some more downward momentum. Very happy to be in the move already… because Oanda blows out the spread to 30pips for UK releases… and that makes me squirm a bit
It can be single or combined 3-bar candle. 3-bar is much better. You can trade it several different ways (see the pics). Basically zero line is open of momentum candle (demand area). But it can be any line in 0-50% area of body. Important is that you have to trade momo candles from higher timeframe on smaller timeframes. On smaller timeframes they usually look like change in market flow and OTE…area from 0-50% of body, OTE is 61.8 -79%.
You can trade momo from higher TF either from close to open (it is counter trend trade), you find your entry for example with OTE on smaller timeframe and then trade it back to higher timeframe open. This way you zero out all the traders, which bought during the large candle body. OR if price comes back to momo open, then look for opportunity to go long again (the traders with orders on BE are zeroed out and we can go long again).
Another possible way how to trade these candles is to find initial swing and OTE area and then find momentum candle (single or three bar) inside OTE and place your limit order at open price of this candle. But it is more or less just fine tuning of your entries.
Hi Deskpop, If you are still looking here I may be of some help to you.
I too am learning ICT’s methods from the start and am going through the material in real time from last year. If you like we could go through it together and post our journey here. I have watched all main videos plus a few later ones. I am currently going through the practical part of demo trading previous days and weeks highs/lows to check the support/resistance provided and the bounce given by them - quite illuminating. I am about to start reading February’s posts now.
If you would like to follow with me that’s fine, let me know.
ps keep your money, you’ll need it for your live account.
Just one more thing. Do you remember this ICT picture? I think it is very important. How many times he said that you have to learn how to buy when price is declining and sell when price is rising. It is the best way how to make some reasonable money in this business. I know it is against human nature, but once you get it, then it is really easy.
One old good rule for successful business says: “Buy cheap, sell expensive and pay late.”
I agree that with higher resolution you can see turning points better. A wick on a candle if looked at on a smaller (higher resolution) time frame may show an OTE or who knows what. But my statement is still correct. multiple candles can be combined into one higher time frame candle. But then you have less detail. You have an indi that does that? Cool! when looking at your picture earlier I thought man! that’s some big bodies then realized the bear candle and bull candle can cancel each other out leaving a small body. It’s tricky to combine those mentally.
It looks like the low of the week will have been made on Wednesday’s London Open. That is, assuming this isn’t some kind of tricky reversal or seek and destroy day.
There was also a clear divergence between the lower lowers of the fiber and the higher lows of the stochastic.
The low of the week is institutional level 1.3020, which was previously an Asian session low from 8 days ago (1/24/2012).
I fell asleep so I couldn’t capitalize on these observations.
Im off for a few weeks of travel and wish you all good luck and happy hunting…
Today Im disgusted by myself;) didn’t follow my plan and didn’t have my psychology under control… time to stop.
I will take a few steps back and go through each and every video again, and will take my time… was going too fast…
What are your stoch settings? mine looks slightly different, just curious but the same point. I saw the same thing I just didnt know how to pull the trigger because of two divergences being present and fiber is in the middle of the zone so it just through me off and I didnt take anything, which I am okay with.
I went Long on Cable today as that is what HTF analysis was telling me. Fiber was a dark horse to me today. Caught only 40 pips because I didn’t wake up on time to catch the low of LO killzone. Oh well can’t complain. I have made a total of about 16 trades so far with only 1 losing trade because I didn’t take into account the HTF S/R levels.
