Was really anticipating a move lower after doing my analysis. This huge rally up really went against me. I woke up to find that my short @ 1.31300, which had a stop 30 pips higher, never actually closed. By the time I realized what happened the trade was 108 pips against me. Luckily this is a demo account but I am not happy that my stop loss did not trigger. I am using a FXCM demo. Has anyone had experiences like this with FXCM or any other broker?
[/QUOTE]
interesting,looks like u r working on few things
ICT ā I hate to sound like a broken record on my very first post but I want to say a BIG thank you (thatās āTHANK YOUā) to you for sharing your knowledge with us. I have been looking at this stuff for months now and am totally blown away.
GLGT
Well first trade, unprofitable. Not very happy emotionally. Shorted cable at 1.5850 with a 30 pip stop.
Reasoning was I saw divergence between fiber and cable, and it did not look like fiber was going to take out previous days highs as adr was filled and pivots were metā¦ Stop was hit by 1.7 pips. I took the trade at the tail end of NYO just because of what I saw and I did have a resistance line at that region. The trade was 20 pips in my favor at a point, but I am trying to be stoic about trading and as I type this I feel fine with what I chose to do.
It was very exhilarating to take a live trade and I saw divergence this morning and considered getting long the fiber but I was just wary as described in an earlier post. I WILL CUT RISK IN HALF, i risked just under 2%.
Only thing I could have done better imo is take the trade in LC, but again i saw divergence and everything else into consideration that is that.
I keep my stochs at a standard 10,3,3
wooow what happened to this thread it is giaganic now haha
FYI for traders who focus exclusively on EU-GU (Which I am one).
I looked at some other pairs today to apply the ICT concepts and test them out.
In my perusing other pairs, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD came into my sights. Right now, EU-GU are somewhat choppy. I think we would call this a consolidation range even though it is pretty big. There isnāt a clear trend. If you use the MA indicators (18 and 40), the EU 18MA is below the 40 (although may crossover tomorrow) and the GU is bullish with the 18 above the 40 and potentially widening. It appears we may be starting a buy program on the GU on the next pullback to give us a fractal low.
However, the AUDUSD NZDUSD are in a clear buy program. Beautiful market structure. Both pairs are completing a fractal low 5 day formation in a clear buy prorgam. If the uncertainty with the EU-GU is giving you somewhat of fits. It might be worth a look at these pairs and look for a long entry to get on board the buy program over on the bottom half of the world.
EDIT: Part of me thinks ICT has been waiting for someone to notice this and post it due to him constantly selecting AUDUSD as the āoff pairā that he selects in his videos to illustrate his concepts are universal not on on timeframes but across currency pairs. I wouldnāt be surprised if ICT responded to this saying heās been in a position trade on the buy program in AUDUSD for a while and made a boatload on it so far.
But heās been waiting for someone to post about it.
EDIT 2:
Looking at the AUDUSD, it appears the signals have been much cleaner and judas more defined in recent weeks at least compared to EU/GU.
Iām thinking some of this might be due to analysis paralysis on EU-GU from spending so much time studying the charts. But looking at the hourly on the AUDUSD with the asian range indicator plottedā¦there are easy to find judas swings and using pivots and prior day hi-lo for nice OTE entries.
It looks so clean it appears it would be boringā¦which, s Martha Stewart saysā¦āThatās a good thingā
Itās interesting you bring this up. Iāve been doing a bit of my own analysis on AUD/USD this past week ā swing trade analysis using Type II Trend following divergence to be more specific ā and am curious to know if anyone has experience trading these pairs on a routine/frequent basis.
If so, I would like to know how the Kill Zones weāre so familiar with apply when stalking setups. Would we need to take into account Sydney Open when looking for trade setups or do these opportunities routinely unfold during the Kill Zones weāre used to (i.e. LO, NYO, LC)?
This is exactly what I would like to know, how do the killzones setup for this pair. Price is now falling off on cable; I kind of chuckle but if i get stopped out by 1.7 pips a few times in a row, there wont be much of that. I feel like I just wasnt meant to make a winner on the first one so I would review and tell myself I would do it again.
NOTE: Charts are clickable to bring up a better view.
Hereās a couple charts of NZDUSD.
The first one is what the daily chart would have looked like on December 14th. With key SR levels denoted. Look at this and you can see clear turning points at the level I plotted.
And nowā¦Here is the daily chart through today. Look how cleanly it is stairstepping the SR levels. Reaches a SR level, retraces to retest the prior one, then advances up one more.
In all honestyā¦itās hard to imagine a better looking clean stair stepping trend in an actual market outside of textbooks.
Just cursory analysisā¦It appears out standard kill zones are just fine for setups to enter. One thing I kinda notice is a little more activity in the 1800-2100 GMT timeframe. A little wider spreads there when EU-GU are usually consolidating. I will look more to see if there are enterable setups at SO
I havenāt got much to comment on AUD and NZD v USD, but spent some time looking at EURJPY and GBPJPY and came to the conclusion that the kill zones in these 2 pairs happens about an hour earlier, i.e LO and judas is about 7 GMT, etc. also as one could expect, the asian range is wider, however the āālions portionāā of the daily move is in the European sessionā¦ the thing that put me off is the crazy, few hundred pip spikes that happens from time to time and can f*** you up big timeā¦ I guess this is why ICT hates the Yenā¦ 
ā¦thats only my very basic observations and I dont claim to be an expert in the slightestā¦ lol
:41:
High all Iām a kiwi and trade the nz and aus a lot.I think people try to look for trades that are not there. I also trade the aus and nz against the yen. With these xtra pairs it allows me to be more patient and look for an ideal setup. ICTs concepts work well with these pairs. I also trade gold with ICTs methods.
I think ict would say it as he doesnāt prefer crosses compared to pairs with the dollar. The dollar move the market. The crosses volitility is a function of which pair the banks release first for the trend. The corresponding cross spikes when thereās divergence to the dollar. So I think ict likes the dollar pairs as it allows easier tracking of the banks rather than an indirect relation to the banks.
Actually, 1300-1500gmt looks to be a frequent profit release timeframe. A little strange as thatās 0:00-2:00 am Sydney time.
Ah. But thatās 800 et or NYO. Sometimes a reaction in LO. But usually the profit leg is in NYO
Doesnāt appear Sydney open moves it much. Occasionally of course. But usually not
Excuse me if this question has already been posted I cannot seem to find it anywhere. I am having a hard time seeing the reaction of the London Open compared to the asian range and accumulation phase that Michael talks about. I have watched the video on the asian range so many times but still cannot see it visually. When he talks about the Smart Money taking opposing sides of the retail traders, how does this post on a chart? If there are more long positions in the asian trading sessions than this means that the smart money will drive the market down because they have taken the other side of the trade right? But this is what I am not seeing in this video, he goes over the different accumulation phases in a given week and I am seeing the market trading in the same direction as it did in the asian range more than the opposite. For instance in the 3rd or 4th day the asian range has clearly traded up and he says smart money has accumulated long positions but the london trades up as well, but doesnt this mean that the smart money should have pushed the price down because they have sold all these long positions to the retail traders putting the smart money on the opposite side as the retail traders? I dont know maybe I am just talking out my arseā¦ I may not have a grasp of this accumulation thing I guess. If someone understands this and can explain a little better I would much appreciate it. Thank you
nice discussion there guys 
p.s. yeah, I think ICT said many, many times why he prefer the GU and EU; there is the volume, there is the āābig boysāā playground and with these two pairs hey control the whole FX market more or lessā¦
I notice a nice reaction to pivots, azn range and judas present alot, but not much for divergences on the stoch. Not as much divergence amongst aud and nzd either. Probably because price is not manipulated as much.
Yeah US killzone has always been more interested in AUD. Which sort of makes sense when you consider the assie is a comdoll and the US is more a commodity trading market and the Euro zone is more a currency market.
It only moves on local news during asia, thereās not enough flows for tricky malipution to take place.
Wally