I definately see the reason to have a bearish bias, given fundamentals, and a nice looking OTE.
I can also see that as simply a consolidation before a move higher. Price went up pretty fast, so needed to pause for a while before continuing higher. From the high back in October, we are only at a 38% retracement mark even though it’s gone up 600 pips.
I think long term (meaning months) I’m still bearish. But not surprised at all at this retrace and somewhat expect it to go higher…given market sentiment…it appears everyone is expecting it to go down. So contrarian in me thinks it will go higher until more people come to the long side of the boat, then it would release down.
One thing I’m keeping my eye on…with the COT data, it appears the commercials crossed over short to long at the 1.3500 price level and then reached extremes. I think COT data will be a good indicator. I wouldn’t be surprised to see price get above that level so the banks could distribute and not be at a loss (but they’ve made money already…but people are generally bearish).
Remember, the whole rally in October was with very bearish market sentiment.
Long: 1.3100 at central pivot, just above asian session low and OTE on 5 minute chart.
TP1: 33% off at 1.3145, previous resistance for the day had been shown here and around the 79% retracement on the earlier down move in case it changed and went short again. Move stop to 1.3120, just below area of resistance for the day.
TP2: 33% off at 1.3165, at the R1, again big area for resistance here and possible retrace. Moved stop to 1.3140, same reasoning as above (just about got stopped out here on final portion).
TP3: Final 33% out at 1.3195 since 1.3200 has been such large resistance for our consolidation.
Happy with this trade even though I missed the final move. Not worried about that at all. Eradicated my losses from January already and on my way to a profitable February so far.
ICT’s risk-cutting drawdown technique is the best thing to happen to my trading career. Losing streaks are something I no longer worry about. So what’s left to worry about?
Thanks for your feedback. Based on your advice, I may need to revisit how I approach taking a trade going into LO. Can you (and anyone else as well) give me your opinion on my current overall approach ? Here it basically what I’ve been doing so far paper trading historical data until my first live trade today:
-Look at 4hr for market flow used to obtain trade bias going into LO
-Look for a OTE on the 1hr using a swing in bias direction (downswing for bearish and swinghigh for bullish) right before LO Kill zone begins. The OTE needs to line up with a S/R level (sometimes also lines up with a institutional level as well)
-Use 15min for entry and ensure OTE lines up in corresponding buy/sell zone or if not at least very close to mid-pivot
I look at SMT using stoch but just as added confluence to the other 3 (OTE lining up on S/R, Market flow, Sell/Buy zone … all lining up in LO kill zone)
Got stopped out twice on my 2 shorts on fiber in london by 1 pip each!!wtf!!
Was looking for a long at NYO on the cable but price didn’t reach the 79% on the 5 min OTE, it was news driven so I guess I should have used the 61% instead as noted in ICT’s summer webinar. This is my first live trading account (well first account ever, I haven’t really traded demo besides backtesting), I just started trading it yesterday. I started with 1% risk and dropped to 0.5% after the first loss. I won a small scalp on the kiwi yesterday so my account so far is -0.7%. It just sucks losing 2 trades by a pip and then missing out on a huge move by 3 pips on the same day.
So true. Knowing you have a safety net and to deal with any number of loses or a losing streak allows you to relax and focus on the setups and not worry about whether the trade will be a winner/loser, etc. Being able to focus on taking good trades/setup and not having the anxiety of needing it to be a winner can do wonders. Just one way to eliminate the fear/greed emotions in trading
Hey mozdef
That’s really terrible luck… but let me tell you it’ll happen a lot. Maybe not twice in the same day, but it does happen. As you take more and more trades you learn to accept it and you will also find that the opposite will hold true from time to time. That is, price will hit your profit target by 1/2 pips and then reverse from there. As for missing the trades, 79% retrace is the top/bottom range and will get you into the trade with the least risk. 61% will get you in with the most risk and in between is the sweet spot where you have decent risk and wont miss too many trades. Waiting for the least risk 79% retrace will cause you to miss out on some trades.
I like that investigation. Because everytime we lose, we lose 30. Everytime we have such trade we get half of 50% and often enough at BE. Will try to do something similar
JAN +29.4? omfg -_-;;; gotta tell me how you do that
Thanks for your words. I will keep plugging away, I’m atleast happy that I had the bias correct for at least TP1 for the first 2 trades and a full range on the 3rd trade if I got filled in. I’ll work on my entry technique and stop placement.
yeah actually the long that i was looking at did reach that sweet spot but I had my limit order on the 79% because I was a little scared after the first 2 losses. anyways hopefully tomorrow brings better luck.
Yup, LTPP is gonna be rich pretty damn fast if he keeps that up! I love the success stories in this thread… Speaks volumes about the quality of the concepts presented
…Last 3 weeks of my trading in 2012. ICT tools nothing else, ok it is semi-automated trading so I had to add some of my own improvements, but Michael’s methods and concepts really work very well. It just needs study time and screen time to get it and understand it properly.
On week 5, I made 10% on that mon/tue to recover my losses. The rest of last week was breakeven for trades opened and closed. I do have a position trade on Audusd that is still open. It’s up about 7% so far. Buy program buy program. Run Aussie run. Letting it run as long as I can. If it runs for a month or 2, could be a huge bump in percentage points when it closes.
Pretty happy so far. Wife is becoming very interested in how I’m doing.
Watching you guys have success is reassuring to me, I know I have a lot of study and chart time infront of me. I will say it wasnt a mistake that I didnt demo, because I knew I would not take it seriously and who wants to wake up at 2 am for fun… Ne ways I havent lost much like down 2% but I am having fun with .25% trades now, its my form of demoing that wont hurt me, and besides someone said I could be wrong 24 times so lets see how hard that could be hahah.
I realise I have to wait for price and be more patient. Now that price has run up, I wont be looking for auto buys, but maybe a nice 79% retrace and than a continuation on the move up. THIS IS NOT EASY lol even with the info provided, it is a skill that takes time to acquire, but when ICT comes back, and you guys keep sharing and I keep ‘demoing’ it will all be fine and dandy.
Wow this is just amazing, it would be nice if you would post more of your analysis, doesn’t have to be before the trade but just nice to see it after that fact. I think we all might be able to learn from your trades…
What do you mean by semi automated, would like to know more about this…
omfg -_-;;; gotta tell me how you do that 
