I Bailed at 3130. I don’t like how AR high was support for awhile, then broke down.
Bias was short. Market missed my entry on the fiber… Now I am looking at the pair tank lower. A smile on my face. At least my analysis was right 
TANK!? More like trickle down
It’s all good. After reading the last couple pages, I think I’m the only one with a pending order to go long the Cable. Mind you, it’s still a ways below the market price right now, but I’ve decided not to move it and let it play out as though I havent read anyone else’s analysis.
Pending order just got triggered. lets see how this plays out
Hi LiftOff, I sent you a PM sometime back, did you get it? Let me know please.Cheers!!!
70% off at 1.3120
Agree. I went short EU at 1.3145 at LO but have now taken 50% at 25 pips and tightened the SL right up.
Could be a Zday.
Wally
Could you tell me how you obtained your entry? Was it on a OTE pulled on a downswing around S1? I got my entry using the downswing in Asian range which ended up being stopped out (1.3120).
Holding a short in fiber from 3135… got in a bit too early as I had the 3150 area targeted to enter, but was a bit anxious as I got up for LO. Moved against me and missed SL by 3 pips or so (phew) now well in profit with SL at break even. Will aim for ADR/S1/PWL/1.62 fib extension as target around 1.3050.
Happy the trade is in profit but not pleased with my patience to wait and enter. There was a nice OTE on the 15min in my target area if I had waited and would have entered 15-20 pips better. Also fortunate that it didn’t get stopped out.
Alright here’s what I’m thinking :- the fiber has been going sideways since the 26th of jan (Z-day fractal) so putting a line about half way gives 1.3132, I also have a higher TF S&R at 1.3158. At LO we where in the sell zone retreating from the 3158 and had a SMT with cable.
The fact that yesterday it just wouldn’t pass the daily fractal low, making daily flow down, has me suspecting this whole sideways move as a setup for street maybe and I’ll just play the cards I’m dealt with day by day but I’m expecting a big move to come soonish, just not sure which way yet.
Wally
p.s I’m thinking down but would luv to hear others opinions.
Just abit of advise, wait for Berlin to show you what’s going to happen, when ever i jump the gun and take an OTE with a SMT or whatever else before Berlin I nearly always get it wrong. I now look for Berlin to leave the Asian range and then watch for London open to come back to the range, basicly either Berlin will run the stops or London will and I’m not quite as literal with the Asian range either ie. If the first hour of asia just runs up and then for the next 5 hours it consolidates along the top of the range then that consolidation is the asia range that I’m watching because it’s the consolidation that the accumulation is going on in.
Anyway patients is the game 
Wally
got 50% 34 pips, second half got stoped out +2 pips. So okey today
Similar here. On cable, entered short at LO at 1.5824. Took 10% off at 1.5784. 90% hit SL at 1.5823.
One idea I’m investigating is moving SL to BE at 30 pips, and taking 10% off. I know normally ICT takes more off there, but my analysis of my results the past 3 months shows that reduces profitability. I would be much better off letting the position run for the 90-150 pip homeruns and letting almost the whole position run for that. Would significantly improve profit percentage.
But can’t complain too much. Jan was +29.4%.
Still looking for intraday trades, but I have a “buy program” long on Aussie going right now since middle of last week. Entered at 1.0680. So far, it’s looking good. Letting it mature and plan to hold for a few months until the buy program ends.
On Cable…we very may have the first fractal forming in a “buy program”. Yesterday’s low meets the criteria to be a fractal low with the 2 days prior being higher lows (3 days if you count the sunday candle).
Price today didn’t really threaten the low and is currently an up day.
If you are conservative, you could wait until the daily candle closes tomorrow to complete the formation. If youre aggressive, you could enter tomorrow.
If price drops lower out of the AR tomorrow LO…I will be buying cable and holding it for a buy program. Hopefully, the pivots and OTE’s and judas lines up that I could put my SL below the Monday low. But looking to be a good potential setup. This would be the first fractal low with the 18EMA above the 40EMA and widening since we hit the monthly low in Janunary.
I would not be surprised by this at all. The AUD/USD and NZD/USD have been in beautiful buy programs since Jan 9th or Jan 13…depending on your definition of “widening” between the 18 and 40…
Hey, I was just curious. You seem to focus on the AUD and NZD a lot. I dont trade these all taht often and was wondering when you see the kill zones. Are they the same as the EUR and GBP? Thanks
I don’t trade them a lot. Really since last week. I was looking at other pairs looking to apply ICT’s concepts and tools becasue he says they are universal across markets and timeframes. So I was doing some cursory analysis…still forex, but other pairs. I started looking at highly correlated pairs and when I brought up the NZD/USD and AUD/USD chart, I was shocked because it is currently in a beautiful market structure and buy program. Pretty much textbook. As it happened last week, (This was 1/31 that I was looking around).
On that date, the AUD/USD was in day 4 of a 5 day fractal low formation. I did some analysis, and determined that if on Wed, a Judas swing came down to 1.0680, I would enter a “buy program” long. And trail the stop 2 fractals below and let it run as long as possible. I entered last Wed because the market gave it to me, and have been holding for about a week now.
So that was one type of analysis…but I have been looking at it for intraday trading as well.
My advise would be to shift the timing 5 hours to be ET based. The volitility appears to really start around 7am ET. Over the course of many months that I have looks at the aussie now, 7am - 9am ET to complete a judas swing and go the other way is very common. This is what I would target as the key kill zone for the big moves.
The other killzones don’t seem that great, or I haven’t found a segment that seems to work well. My focus at this point is the NYO kill zone.
Also, I would comment that this pair seems outstanding on respecting pivots. If you see a 6am candle moving and approaching a pivot or mid pivot level…It’s a good bet to turn around at the pivot starting at 7am ET.
Look for yourself and do some analysis on an hourly chart with pivots plotted. 7-9 am seem to be an excellent timeframe to get EU-GU LO type results on a NYO timeframe. I’m really liking it right now.
When ICT gets back, I’m going to send him an email asking if he would be OK with me starting a thread for AUD/NZD ICT trading since his is mostly EU-GU focused. But not sure how he’s going to do the new thread, so wanted to hold off till he gets back.
But if my demo testing on this pair works well…I might put a lot more time into this because 7-830am ET is ideal trading time for me here on the East Coast.
Another thing I’ve been playing with is 20 or 25 pip stop loss ranges. That seems to be working well so far since the pair respect pivots so well.
4HR Eur/Usd closed barely above the range, possible Judas, but if it keeps going I may have to re-evaluate my bias (though that’s exactly what a Judas wants me to do :33:)
Great! Thanks for all the detail.
Ah ICT I finally see what you’re saying in your vids. I was up two trades, right on everything today, believing our last LTH was going to be breached today and it did. But I went to bed early leaving one trade open. I hit my first target while in bed taking 30% off at +40 pips but wasn’t able to set the rest to breakeven. When I woke up this morning the remainder of my trade had been stopped out which frustrated me because it was such an easy win or breakeven. Like an amateur I started chasing after my losses as it broke up and went short because everyone was doing it. Now I find myself down a little more than 1 trade when I was up 2!
Kind of frustrating but lesson learned!
… Now let me see if I can get in one more trade to make back everything I’ve lost. It’s london close, perfect opportunity!!! (just kidding)
It was the long wick of yesterdays daily candle along with the bull flag that got me thinking long bias. I couldn’t see price dropping below yesterdays range because it wouldn’t make sense for that type of action to unfold.