Anyone have a indicator like the “ICT Kill Zones” but that will highlight the bottom of the chart screen in the area of the timeframe instead of the actual price area?
Exactly what I was looking for.
Thanks !
Yes, Monthly key s/r is found in the monthly time frame.
I suggest that you go trough the video called “Higher time frame analysis” found on the 1st post of this thread.
In this video, ICT does a top down analysis and talk about the Key s/r area.
Cheers,
Buck
Just a little reminder :57:
Only two videos and 700 posts to go and I’ve digested all the material for the first read…:34: lol
Hey chaps,
Let me tell you what I’ve been up to this weekend. 
Been watching Handling Losses and Drawdown - YouTube on a loop all day while forging my ‘‘Trader’s Shield’’:
Attaching the document below for those interested. Made it the way I understand the risk management model given us by Michael, but could be wrong. I’m open for any critiques and/or suggestions for improvement.
Made the ‘‘shield’’ in 3 variants: Aggressive, Balanced and Conservative for every taste. The deference in the % of drawdown is not that big, from 9.21 % to 13.54 %, so I choose to adopt the ‘‘aggressive approach’’ for now. Maybe will go to the ‘‘conservative approach’’ some day when manage a million dollar account, lol
The sections ‘‘Drawdown’’ and ‘‘Recovery’’ are clear, but I added ‘‘Expansion’’ as well. I suspect this will be mentioned in the upcoming videos (‘Wealth Building Money Management’ or ‘The ICT Method To Making Seven Digits Per Year’), so may re-work this part later. I decided that 6% will be the very maximum exposure on my account in any one time, but made it hard enough to get to that max exposure. I’ll have to make 36 consecutive wins to get to that 6%, which is not easy at all and will take some time. I normally take up to 10 trades a week, so 36 trades will be more than a month of no loosing… Of course the parameters can be changed to suit your Personal Trading Plan.
As you can see it is not hard at all to come back from a massive drawdown and is rather quick, it only takes 11-12 winning trades to get you to the Equity Highs while the account is been drawn within 25 consecutive losses. I did put 25, but you should ask yourself what is wrong on anything more than 8 or 10 maximum (as Michael said 8 losses are absolutely normal and can happen to anyone). In fact, if you ever reach 25 loosing trades streak, most probably you’re not made for trader, ‘‘go back to gambling’’ as ICT says.
All trades in the ‘‘Recovery’’ section are on 1:1 ratio, which is rather conservative too. It will only take you 6 trades on 2:1 to get you back on the high, or 4 at 3:1! Yes it only takes Four good winners to erase the damage of 25 losses. This is only achieved with rock solid discipline, sound risk management and comprehensive trading plan of course.
Apologies for the long post. The bottom line is: You Can Not Get Hurt By The Market At All! You’ll be laughing at every loss, because you know how to deal with it and is dead easy. Just put your Shield on when you enter the battlefield. Simple.
Hope this helps and no ongoing support offered, lol
:41:
The Traders Shield.zip (182 KB)
Hehe, I love the shield project you’ve created. I make a lot of spreadsheets too, but they never get this fancy! Is risk expansion really part of ICT trading… how did you get that information??? I must’ve missed some important live session or something
I too see the genius of the ICT drawdown technique, and made this simple tool for myself:
It’s all built on the value of the account’s equity High.
If I am 99%+ of equity high, I risk a Max of 2% per trade.
If I am 97.5%+ of equity high, I risk a Max of 1% per trade.
If I am <97.5% of equity high, I risk in the range of 0.5-0.75% per trade.
The 1%/2% Tier relate to these 97.5%/99% values
Over 717,000 now… :46::o
Nothing concrete from ICT, it was just a wild guess that he might mean this by saying ‘‘explosive profits’’… you have missed nothing, dont worry :rolleyes:
I have an ‘‘expansion’’ part in my trading plan. Looking at it as a motivation, for faster growth. Of course, this can be two edged sword and can hurt one, but as my account is not anywhere near 10 or even 5k, first this is an opportunity for faster growth and second, as 6% loss is not that big moneywise on my equity, can not hurt me that much. But, again I’ll risk 4, 5 or 6% only after outstanding performance previous month. Also this will be only temporary strategy until my account grows to some reasonable level, I can’t see me risking such a percentage on 20, 50, 100k or more account…
Just my little twist, not expecting anyone to follow. 
Hi guys, anyone can roughly guide me how you all find setups using ICT method. I went thru the video umpteen times however as a newbie i really cannot catch any ball,:). Maybe i should say what i understand. I only understand open the daily time frame chart and see the market flow? Right?? Follow by 4Hr & 1 Hr.???
Well if I had to write out a rough guide it would be this:
watch all ICT videos. put in 1000 hours of chart time
repeat until profitable
could b interesting once somebody knows whats he/she is doing…
kelly’s formula advocated by larry w., and we will c what THE MAN does himself //though it might b already said, max 2%,will c if those vids gonna say something else or additional…//
but the shield itself scaling down? u nailed it nicely with the line, i.e. relax
edit; thx for sharing the sheet , i never excelled in excel
Thanks akeakamai for your kind response. is that how you do it>>>???
its how everyone does it… there is no shortcut. I tried myself going to live right away… notttt the best outcome 
OK, i been demoing this method so must need patience to capture the essence of this method and trading. Need to put lots of handwork and patience.
hi akeakamai
would u b willing to share yr sheet?
//sorry if u did before in any case,pages sometimes fly//
I believe the shield has a tiny crack in it. We believe that when we have consecutive losses it is the worst case scenario, but more realistically and even more harmfull will be a string of losses followed by a few wins. Because the buildup of equity goes much slower than the drawdown initially starts, the end result might be more negative. I am not a programmer but could somebody make an excell sheet where different variables can be changed like:
L L L W W L L W W W L L etc
wherby the W/L > 0
Or am I suffering a brain-fart?
“The more you trade the higher the odds are the next trade will be a losing trade”
That’s the Gambler’s Fallacy.
Gambler’s fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The next trade is either a win or a loss, irrespective of the W/L distribution history.
EDIT: forgot to mention as an aside that flipping a regular coin (say a quarter $) will show that that in itself if done in a particular way has an edge that the casino’s would be jealous of… 
I believe you’re right (and so is my son who also made that remark).
The question is how realistic it is to look at the worst case situation. Worst case would be a string of losses and no wins. Considering anything else to be worst-case might indeed be classified as a brain-fart (you started this LOL 
:p) It’s like being a little pregnant - you are or you aren’t.
What you could do is to actually simulate results by using a random W/L generator and see what the result of that is, based on a) average R:R ratio and b) W/L percentage. You will also need the latter two to calculate the Kelly number:
Kelly’s formula: Kelly % = W - (1-W)/R where
Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade
W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system
R = Historical Average Win/Loss ratio
I will personally not risk more than 2% unless I have a big enough sample of trades (no less than 20 but more is better) to calculate that number.
This is not the be-all-end-all btw :20:
You’re right about the gamblers fallacy. Now about the coin. Just how would you get a casino like edge by flipping a fair coin?