4H can work for SMT, but I usually screw right down to the lower TFs to take my cues. The 5M showed SMT divergence at LO today. Lower lows for Cable, and higher lows for Fiber.
[B]ICT Original Thread Post[/B]
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/32915-what-every-new-aspiring-fx-trader-wants-know-54.html#post180327
I thought this was gold in march, 2010 and I think itâs gold now! Iâve seen a lot of discussion on SMT lately, and thought the original explanation might aid all you tradersâŚhappy trading!
I had a pending order on Cable at 1.6350. The candle shows that it was hit, but my account is showing no order. Mmmmm.
Remember that your candles are drawn from the Bid price. At times of high volatility, the Ask can be many pips away from the Bid.
Thanks NBâŚI will definitely remember next time.
So, I get a rare chance to actually trade London Open and I blow it! Price misses my pending order by 2 pips, and goes exactly where I had planned for it to go. One consolation is that my analysis was on the mark, and I had a good chance to practice trade management even though it wasnât live. Here is the Exit screenshot:
EDIT: Take Profit 2 level was calculated by drawing the Fib backwards to the swing high and levelling it at 50%âŚsorry if that is not the 100% extensionâŚdonât know how to label that.
You woulda got filled with Oanda, in fact you woulda got filled as low as 1.6346. I wouldnât be too happy about that : /
Canât do much about it now, but I am happy about the fact that Oanda would have filled me because when I move to Vancouver Iâll be using that broker 
Haha, 2 pips, eh? Yeah, try getting lucked out with 1.1 pips. Itâs happened twice this week⌠No trade for me last night.
I was stopped out by a single pip yesterday, then watched it go on to hit target, then missed an order triggering by two pips an hour later, and again that one hit target. Maybe it is the week for it?!
Geez, I was talking to friend earlier today, telling me his pending order was missed by 3 pipettes, and then went past his TP by 40 pips an hour later⌠Must be the week⌠
After 17 successful demo trades and an 80% winning ratio, I finally took the plunge and went live with London Close. What happened? I have hit a losing streak! The last 3 trades have now been losers. Feeling pretty glum tonight, especially after missing 120 pips because of a spread.
I went live and my first 3 trades were -1.5% losses lol! Made up for it though which is what matters. As for the spread thing, it happens, Iâve missed out on a couple trades by a few pips just because I prefer entering @ the .786 most of the time.
Ict where are you? Are you new videos soon? Need some good info again missing it
Think of it as a lesson in independence 
thereâs enough material in the thread already for you to be making real money in your trading!
Thanks for the encouragement, hellogoodbye. I know the system works or else I wouldnât have taken it liveâŚitâs just bad timing I guess. Iâll stick to the plan and if I see another 2 losses I think I will have to reassess. Five in a row would set alarm bells ringing after only experiencing 3 in my first 20 trades. Even my wife is saying âhey, no worriesâ, and she is usually the most skeptical one:15:
for some reason, anytime a trader goes from demo to live in this market, things start going wrong. as long as you donât let your money management rules slip, there shouldnât be a problem if your analysis takes some time to warm up to the new live environment. good luck, and Vancouver is a beautiful city when the sun is shining!
Thanks akâŚI like how you said ââŚwhen the sun is shining!â It is also pouring with rain here today but I donât care as long as we get some sunny weekend days.
Anyway, taking a leaf out of Clarkâs book I am attempting to get serious with my pre-trade routine. Here are my current notes for the coming day. If anyone finds fault with any aspects then please speak upâŚthere are still some grey areas in my understanding.
[B]Currency Pair[/B]: GBP/USD
[B]Date:[/B] 12th May 2011
[B]Time (GMT)[/B]: 04:00
[B]Pre-Trade Market Bias [/B]
[B]USDX:[/B] At 75.50. Has pushed up over 75.00 which was resistance. Could be reaching for 76.00 but prior support turned resistance at 75.50 first. Retrace to 75.00?
[B]US Bond Yields:[/B] All putting in lower lows and lower highs. BULLISH for Cable.
[B]COT Data (Net position and direction): [/B]Commercials are net short, but a positive net change from previous report. BULLISH.
[B]Backwardation:[/B] Yes. BULLISH.
[B]Futures Market Open Interest (rising/falling) / Volume (rising/falling): [/B]
OI: 109,496. Unchanged for the last 3 days. Volume: Low. Time of new trading day??
[B]News Releases Scheduled (Only High Impact):[/B]
08:00 GMT â (EUR) ECB Monthly Bulletin published
12:30 GMT â (USD) Retail Sales; PPI.
[B]Chart Technicals[/B]
[B]Market Flow (Daily, 4H, 1H):[/B] Down, Up, Down.
[B]SMT Signals:[/B] 2H â Pound currently making higher lows with Fiber making lower lows.
[B]Support/Resistance:[/B] Support between 1.6350 and 1.6300 on D1.
[B]Currency Pair:[/B] EUR/USD
[B]Date:[/B] 12th May 2011
[B]Time (GMT):[/B] 04:00
[B]Pre-Trade Market Bias[/B]
[B]USDX:[/B] At 75.50. Has pushed up over 75.00 which was resistance. Could be reaching for 76.00 but prior support turned resistance at 75.50 first. Retrace to 75.00?
[B]Bond Yields:[/B] All putting in lower lows and lower highs. BULLISH.
[B]COT Data (Net position and direction):[/B] Commercials are net short and net change from previous week is v.large at -35,522 contracts. Could this be an extreme?
[B]Backwardation:[/B] Yes.
[B]Futures Market Open Interest (rising/falling) / Volume (rising/falling):[/B]
OI: 240,374. Unchanged for the last 3 days. Volume: Low. Time of new trading day??
[B]News Releases Scheduled:[/B]
08:00 GMT â (EUR) ECB Monthly Bulletin published
12:30 GMT â (USD) Retail Sales; PPI.
[B]Chart Technicals[/B]
[B]Market Flow (Daily, 4H, 1H):[/B] Down, Down, Down.
[B]SMT Signals:[/B] 2H â Pound currently making higher lows with Fiber making lower lows.
[B]Support/Resistance:[/B] Support at 1.4150 on D1.
[B]Date:[/B] May 11, 2011
[B]Time Started (Local):[/B] 10:05 PM
[B]Time (GMT):[/B] 4:05 AM
[B]Fundamentals:[/B]
USDX closed bullish today, at 75.31. Large bullish candle with large body, indicates strength for the dollar, and bearish for the Cable and Fiber. Bond yields fell a bit more today, showing perhaps some weakness in the dollar and could be overbought right now. USDX broke through resistance at 74.62 and 75.25. USDX may be going for 75.75 which was a previous S&R level. COT data remains the same from before. Cable is slightly bullish from COT, and Fiber is bearish. Backwardization is occuring on all Pound futures, open interest decreased to 109 496. This is bullish for the Cable. Backwardization is occuring on all Euro futures, and Open Interest fell 240 374. This is bullish for the Fiber as well. Cable seems to be bullish and Fiber is slightly bearish.
[B]Technicals:[/B]
Both Cable and Fiber are bullish on all three time frames. Both opened below CPP and in the buy region. On the SMT 4H, we are seeing failure highs on the Fiber and higher highs on the Cable, resulting in a steep 120 pip drop for the Cable and 220 pip drop for the Fiber. We are also seeing lower lows on the Fiber, while Cable is making higher lows. This may indicate a bullish reversal. We see some support on the Cable and that trumps the bearish market flow (1.6375). There is also support for the Fiber at 1.4230 and that also trumps market flow.
[B]Possible Entries and Other Notes:[/B]
Overall, fundamentals and technicals are showing a bullish sentiment for the Cable, and Fiber. Fundamentals are showing a strong buy, while market flow is bearish. This is countered though with the support levels on both pairs. Perhaps a long entry into the Fiber is viable trade or Cable if they are able to form an OTE. Look for long entry into Cable or Fiber for this London Open session.
Hey Ali, glad to see Iâm not alone on this one. =) Nice analysis, I just took a quick glance at it and will look more thorough once I post my own.
Edit: Awesome work Ali, seems to me we have similar techniques. Watch out for the prior support, now resistance at 75.75, the dollar seems to have bounced twice within the last two years, and quite strongly too. Although market flow is down, there is some significant support and resistance levels where price currently is right now. And Iâve learned (the hard way) that S&R smokes market flow, even if all 3 time frames are showing the opposite. Weâll just see when London Open starts. Best of luck. =)
Regards,
Clark.
Took 30 pips today in the NY open kill zone. RRR 1:1, confluence of 78% OTE, 1.4200 figure, MS1 and bearish market flow on Daily, 4 hour and one hour. Maybe could have had more from the trade but i only really look for scalps to get my 25-50 pip weekly target.
Took 17 pips earlier in the week so im done with 47 pips in the bag, v happy as i finished last week 20 pips up too. Feel like im finally making solid progress 
A perfectly good Cable London Close trade that I DIDNâT take because, well, because I chickened out! To be fair it wasnât quite to ADR, but other than that it looked pretty good and would have rewarded me handsomely.
I would say this is a good thing Ali, it shows you have discipline to follow the strategy, you might have missed this one, but if you took it, you may have started taking more like it, with lower probabilities. Although you didnât catch it, thereâll be others and youâve just strengthened your discipline more. =)
Regards,
Clark.