I found this thread about 5-6 weeks ago on my first or second day of researching Fx trading. Thank you ICT for providing this invaluable info and getting me started in the right direction. And I want to thank all of you for also providing great info and participating in this thread.
Alishijo, I made the same trade last night. I set an entry order and went to bed after price retraced to the CPP. I did not think price would rise as fast as it did, or break through the 1.6238 resistance level during todays market.
ICT says that news in general doesnāt have a huge impact on his trades, but I think there must be exceptions to the rule. He obviously doesnāt trade non-farm payrolls, and I think he might have been [B]cautious[/B] trading the London Open with UK CPI coming in at 09:30 local time.
CPI is a once a month event, and it is high impact as it is a measure of inflation which has a bearing on interest rates. Interest rate differentials then have an impact on exchange rates.
After remaining steady for much of 2010, UK CPI seems to be on the rise. This would account for the expectations that UK interest rates will also rise this year. There was a slight dip in March figures, but then April figures came out high at 4.5%. The only time it was higher was in Sept 2008 when it stood at 5.2%, a record high.
Just laid those out on my 60 min chart as well. Will be sure to put those on all charts in the future. Weekly MS1 had only been slightly penetrated on mon/tues but acted as excellent support. Looks like both MS1 and last weekās low were just penetrated though, although price has reversed back above last weekās low, itāll be interesting to see if MS1 acts as resistance.
Iām trying to watch out for the 50% rule as well, if price does break MS1, Iāll be looking for it to retrace somewhere between 1.62020/1.61855 (Daily S1/Yesterdayās Low). The 50% Fib is right at 1.61961.
Please correct me if Iām wrong, but a great short would be just under the 1.62525 (Daily Pivot) which is right in the 61.80%-76.40% Fib area from this morningās dip in prices. Perhaps a short entry at 1.6235 and a stop-loss at 1.6262 (10 points above daily PP). Not going to take this trade, but any insight as to where a good profit target would be?
For what it is worth, I have Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivots on all my charts, my profitability went up when I added them - there was a great touch off the Weekly this morning (GMT).
If I were to Short off a retracement from 1.6235, I would probably have a TP around 1.6120, but that is a very rough guess, as we have not seen the retracement, yet, and as I also use emaās I would want to see where they end up before being too specific. I never plan that far ahead in too much detail, plenty of time for the detail if it looks to be setting up.
So this was Cable at London Close. Congratulations to anybody who got it but my order missed by a few pips again. I had noted the SL level and potential TP levels before price hit 62% OTE, so I kept them on to show you what I was planning and how it actually worked out. Canāt win 'em allā¦on to the next set-up.
Want to be sure I am clear about your pivot setups. Daily would be intraday (based off of yesterdays movement), Weekly would be based off of last weekās movement, and Monthly would be based off of last monthās movement, or a rolling 4 week?
I donāt know if Iām doing it correctly, but I moved my fib up to the 1st pullback. I missed the first pullback because it did not enter OTE. When I moved my fib up, the pullback you have highlighted did enter OTE. thatās where I entered the trade and exited just under the weekly resistance. I watch the Cable, Fiber, Aussie and kiwi to see how far they are penetrating OTE and make my determination of where to enter off these. sometimes I enter right at 62%, sometimes I let it go to 76%
[QUOTE=Alishijo;258804]So this was Cable at London Close. Congratulations to anybody who got it but my order missed by a few pips again. I had noted the SL level and potential TP levels before price hit 62% OTE, so I kept them on to show you what I was planning and how it actually worked out. Canāt win 'em allā¦on to the next set-up.
Also, I was wondering if anyone else has an up trend line drawn on a daily chart. I have one from the low on May 29āth, 2010, had a touch again in December, and price action is the closest to it as it has been so far this year. May be an excellent long term opportunity.
Hey folks, i know this is a lot to ask so not really expecting too much action here but I cant watch where I am, even using a vpn. If anyone has the files can you send them to me? or if there posted anywhere that doesnt promote freedom of information I may be able to watch them from here. Thanks in advance and no worries if you cant be arsed.
Iāve been tracking the USD Index on ticker DXY. I am wondering if the index is traded as a Futures contract though. I am only finding it as an Index. Reason I ask is my broker has a COT indicator I can use on Futures contracts. Wasnāt able to find one with any volume thoughā¦
Daily pivots based on yesterdayās movement. Weekly pivots based off of last weekās (Mon-Fri) movement. Monthly pivots based off of April 1st to April 30th. NOT rolling 4 week.
I have pulled my Fib off of an OTE entry that I missed before (only once in 30 trades), but I have never pulled it off a swing that wasnāt an OTE and wasnāt the low of the day. Do you get my drift? If I can place an OTE on the OTE and enter a few pips above where I should have then that is an option, but bear in mind that good London Close scalps donāt often give that opportunity. It is also worth noting that I donāt like to be scrambling around trying to catch a movement that in essense I have missed. That causes panic, and also speaks of the fact that I wasnāt well prepared in the first place.
Whatever you do, stick to the rules that you set for yourself otherwise there is no way of judging their validity in the long run. Personally I wouldnāt place my Fib on anything other than the low of the day because, on average, we are only catching small swings back into the ADR at London Close. The later you get in, the more you are moving your trade towards risk rather than reward, and there is already a tight R:R ratio as it is.
Hi. Yes, I have that trendline drawn on my Weekly chart, and obviously it follows through neatly to the Daily, too. I have been looking at this setup this week, so interesting to see that someone else has the same view. I went Long in the first week of January based on that trendline. I would certainly look at it later this week/early next, if we get the right sort of interaction with the trendline, yes (on the Weekly chart Price is currently forming a doji touch on the trendline). On the Weekly, some emaās are near to forming support under the current touch. On the Daily, I would be more inclined to wait for the 100 and/or 200ema to interact with the trendline and give me an entry (the 100ema previously provided support at the very end of March and is trying to do so again currently). Could give a nice end of day setup quite soon.
Sorry, I am rambling - basically, yes, I have the same trendline on my charts, I would look at it in conjunction with the same line on the Weekly. There is obviously a lot going on on this pair, so I would keep an eye on fundamentals and the lower timeframes, but I do think that it is an interesting element to any analysis of the pair.
We are in an ascending triangle on the Weekly chart, with previous strong resistance at around 1.6750, so I would look out for that, but there is plenty of room for some pips before Price gets thereā¦!
Hope that gives you some food for thought - I always find it nice to hear that somone else is seeing things the way that I am!!
ā¦Plus there is a moderate chance that if Price reacts to that trendline on the Daily, it would be at around the 1.6000 level, which could give us a good, high-probability trade.
The round number is probably more important than the rest to me, thatās what Iām looking out for. I have been watching it on a weekly chart as well. One more interesting thing on the weekly chart, draw Fib lines from the high in July 08 to the low in Jan 09. I donāt know how important the Fib lines are in the longer time frames, but look at how the 50% line acted as resistance on the early adance, and the 38.2% line has been recent support.
Tell me what the London Close provided us today that we havenāt covered thus far? No blind guessingā¦ look at it and post your feedback.
Iāll be in live chat tonight to go over it with those able to meet online at Babypips chatroomā¦ and yes you will see my charts and audio commentary live. 8pm EST
There was a false breakout to the downside which then became a perfect bounce off previous dayās S2.
My chart shows that area as a pin bar on H1 and M30.
