Hello guys, thank you all for helping me to understand this.
I’m a news trader with a few months of experience and I took a couple of courses in some websites like Udemy or even with Babypips articles.
I learned if a news release is good for a currency I should expect that currency to rise and in opposite of that, if the news is worst than expected, so It should fall.
My problem is, when I was checking CAD interest rate historical data (Overnight rate) I noticed this rule is not work like what I was told!
As you can see I took a couple of screenshots that shows everytime CAD’s overnight rate released as 1.75% as expected, USDCAD rises instead of falling. Because it is good for that currency, isn’t it ?! :
See picture #1-2-3 and 4.
(Because I am not allowed to post more than one picture, I attached all pictures as one in the end of this topic)
Now if you see the last month rate, it falls as expected:
See picture #5.
Let’s see another example. In October 24 - 2018, CAD’s rate was 1.5 and everyone expected to be 1.75% and it did. And as a result, USDCAD falls:
See picture #6.
This is what I learned and it did happen. But other data was not like what I learned.
This senario is sometimes true for other currencies as well.
Can anyone please explain it to me why this happened and how should I know if a news like interest rate is good for a currency or not.
I’m really appreciate it. Thanks.