This is more of a fundamental question and while I do not trade fundamentals myself I think it is important to know what is going on and to a certain degree understand what happens in the economy.
Since the US debt ceiling was lifted until February next year and the government is open for business after a 16 day shut-down it appears that most traders have put their fundamental worries aside, at least equity traders who have pushed indices to all-time highs. Forex traders sold off the USD after the news.
Do you have any concerns at all or do you buy the story?
I think the debt ceiling debate will haunt the markets as in about eight weeks we will have the first set of budget negotiations and the problem has never been solved. I think it will create some nice volatility in the USD especially starting 2014.
I also think we may see a disappointing Q4 as far as GDP is concerned and with the housing market set to cool off I would not be surprised to
see another recession in the US in 2014.
Yeah now that the debt ceiling issue is out of the way (at least until Jan/Feb 2014), the focus will shift back to the US economy. The recent NFP release seems to be a bad omen, don’t you think? October figures are probably gonna disappoint too, which means the Fed isn’t likely to taper bond purchases at all. Spending, housing, and production seem to be lagging as well so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see weak GDP as you predicted. Let’s see how it goes!
+1! I’m just looking for ways to make profits off this bias. Think we’ll see further downside for USD/CHF? Or maybe a potential bounce on GBP/USD or NZD/USD?