For those following the US election for its potential impact on the markets, this video by Peter Zeihan presents an interesting counterpoint to the common assumption of a Trump win.
He says the Dems might crush it. Dude’s usually sharp, unbiased, and keeps it real.
He argues that Republicans need at least two-thirds of Independents in the chart below to vote red.
I am not American, so seeing this from the outside. I went to college in the US, but it is a very, very different country now. The Dems crushing it seems to me unlikely. I think it will be close, I think it might come down to detail counting in several districts, and there will be controversy on whatever outcome. How things will be in the US I don’t know, but the rest of the world have and are preparing for a Trump 2.0. I think it will be “terrible” for the USD, as USA will be more protectionistic, and uncertainty of US policies will rise. Trump shoots from the hip, and that is not good for the country or the dollar. I will be short the dollar on election night, with a stop in case Biden makes it…
