I wouldent want you to think im knocking this though,its just to complicated for this od brain to comprehend Real.I cant speak for others but I thank you for sharing it with us;)
rel ur posts are really eye opening can i be among the few to receive your indicators
Basically means find a way to measure trend so whats the magic item/indicator used to measure this
trend is overperformance of price?
No.
:28:
:13:
There is no magic item or indicator if one does not put some work into it (with some common sense).
Trend is overperformance of price = yes. Isn’t that what ‘everyone wants’?
EURUSD moving currently has not much to do with EURxxx flow, but a lot more from USDxxx
EURxxx moving sideways, a little on the downside. USDxxx moving around as much as it wants with ease of flow. Therefore USDxxx is driving the true movement.
Know this and the days of ‘whipsaw’ is over.
[B]THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^[/B]
That is I think one of the most important concepts that really helped me and that I use a lot in my trading right now, seeing what part of the pair is really causing the movement and using the USDxxx EURxxx etc. charts. Its just one of those things that gives you a completely new perspective on price.
Yeah. I do ‘worry’ about EURxxx moving EURUSD, but I have to put in more weigh onto USDxxx. Knowing this does improve ones perspective and look for better ‘true tops and bottoms’.
Not to mention, EURCHF is capped at 1.20 for a long time. Certainly everyone is afraid of SNB. CHFxxx has been on the downside but right now going sideways for 3 weeks++. So I suppose SNB is holding the 1.20 ceiling pretty well without weakening itself too much when in relation to the world. This also means that movement in EURxxx can be caused by EURCHF. Right now going long EURUSD is pretty good idea since EURCHF is retracing back near the 1.20 zone.
I am sure you can see that I am looking into how bank interventions + futures IO/V + option barriers all come together.
Nice work on your end! How did you get ur USDxxx EURxxx charts?
IMO anyway, fundamentally speaking, EUR is never meant to be a ‘safe haven’ currency, but more of a ‘transcational’ currency within the EU region. Meaning, no one really wants to hold EUR, unlike other currencies where the likelihood of holding is higher. Even so, its not much today as compared to back in the days when interest rates are much higher with greater differentials on swaps.
Which leads to why I think :
-There is no such thing as a safe haven currency anymore
-Shorter term TA oscillator work better today -> due to shorter term PA existing -> due to lower interest rate differentials -> due to smart players knowing ‘buy and hold’ strategies no longer work in today’s markets. Its all about exchanging as much as possible today.
Doesn’t mean carry trade won’t work. One just have to know that although it is an old strategy that used to work, one has to apply it differently today. In terms of volatility + adjusted time perspective of longer term players. Their perspective has shortened, which in turn creates more volatility, so a small player shouldn’t hold open trades too long. The smaller player has to match his expectations accordingly.
So, the study of timeframe perspective does pay off.
With the bebt news this morning surely a further downward trip is on for the EUR,whats your opinion Relativity?
Hi Relativity,
I have only just come across your thread and it looks really interesting. Many thanks for sharing your thoughts.
I’m not sure if the following question is off topic - if it is please ignore!
I am trying to understand the thread from the beginning and I have got as far as the Barros Swings. I am trying to understand how they are constructed. I read the DOC file you reference in post #25 and understood it to mean that price turns up when the highest high of the past 3 bars (3 period swing) or past 5 bars (5 period swing) is exceeded (I am ignoring the 10% filter because that is what you say you have done in your modified swings).
Here is a screenshot of your blue and purple swings on M1 time with NoofCandlesPerCC1 set to 5. The candle at the orange arrow is higher than the highs of the five preceding blue-arrowed candles and I wondered why price had not turned up along the orange line?
Have I completely misunderstood the method of construction or have you made other modifications to the building of the swings?
Sorry, I just need to understand.
Thanks again.
Hi Relativity, hi other Traders,
I have read first 40 posts, and current posts of this thread, and although my strong will to learn, i have no clue what you guys talk about. As well i have to say, until now i understood and backtested 99% of other systems here, but this one… i think i need to have a good sleep or 3 coffees.
Why Relativity doesnt roll out the whole lot like every forum member does? Why is it such an Enigma? Rel - if you want money for it, just PM me - i am happy to talk.
Cheers
I would have to agree with Cyberbob,I do find this a tad confusing I think you guys are working on a higher plane than me and cyber.Its obvious that Relativity is a knowlegeable trader and has my utmost respect,but this one is beyond me,Iknow I should keep trying to understand it but afraid my brain will explode,I think its highly comendedable that relativity has spent so much time and efferort though,so thank you for that.
Many thanks for that. If you want to have a look at this swing, it is on August 19th 2011. On my feed it is at 10:19 which I think is 08:19 GMT.
An argument can be made that there are no indicators that can be used to trade that are completely independent of historical price… AKA leading indicators.
Using option and future data is essentially using order flow to trade. If you have spent anytime studying order flow you will notice that the large bid/offers, barrier options, expiring future contracts, will mainly occur on major s/r lines from previous PA. Why? Because people use historical price to set their orders, so by using order flow, you are indirectly trading historical PA.
Fundamental economic releases/central bank policy… These events are often forecasted a week or so before the actual event, and often are priced into the market days before. To trade them on the day of the release effectively, one must take into account historical price to see how the market was pricing in the release… Again, the main emphasis is historical price… The economic release’s value as an indicator is diminished if market accurately priced it in the days before it’s release.
I definitely agree though that we shouldn’t limit ourselves to the left side of our charts for our analysis. The above mentioned tools are key to improving the edge… But at their core, is still historical PA…
I agree with all of your points… I like the in depth thought process.
Yes it is a bit of an assumption that large bid/offers are on points of historical significance, but an informed assumption as well. There are large bid/offers all the time that occur without the intent to make money but simply to hedge and/or operate business as usual for an exporting/importing company. Generally however, a little bit of thought goes into the process where millions are involved, and orders will be placed at levels deemed significant… AKA ones that were pivotal in previous PA.
Relativity,
It seems that you’re juggling with too many factors when you trade. I have found myself not being on top of NEWS since I was a child. Although I want to incorporate fundamental aspects of forex into my trading, I find it really difficult. I’d rather analyze charts and forget everything else. But it would be stupid to ignore such a large portion of the force which actually move the price quite a lot.
I would be thrilled to see a walkthrough of your actual trade entries, with commentary. But I don’t know if its possible for you to do. I would love to know your thought process and how you analyze all factors in context of the actual trade. I know mere copying does not work in forex. I just want to develop myself to become a better trader, by looking at inspirational traders like you.
Thanks a lot
Absolutely, I don’t believe in total automation either. In fact I like trading manually.
Btw if your last post were images, I can’t see them. I can only see img placeholders. Please, could you post them again?
Thanks
update: Problem solved… Copied the img URLs and managed to open them in new tabs.
Ok, My first impression is that its a bit confusing. But you don’t have to explain everything on the charts. I just want to know what sort of a process do you have…
e.g.
- I look at the indicators a,b and c.
- If they validate a signal, then I go look at the USD index.
- Then there was a news release that came out just now which goes against my trade signals???
- What do I do now…
- I lower the lot size and reduce my RR(by increasing the SL) to give room for the news volatility…
- But I still take the trade
Something like that. I know its different each time. Things like how much weight do you give for certain news, and current-affairs events. For example, how can I incorporate news with the 20 pip rule…
Sorry I’m asking too many things at once.
Yes I managed to open them in new tabs, thanks. Btw Ignore the update to my previous message, as you have already given what I want. Thank you man, I love you!