Simple enough. But it will be sometime before I develop up to your calibre. I understand things, but have problems when it comes to implementing certain things. Interesting that you have even news and projections to show up within the chart window.
Does this imply the same groups-of-traders that you mentioned “missing” in your last image?
Oh, I had ended up asking something else. But your detailed answer covers all what I wanted to know about your reference to “what was missing.” Thanks a lot, I will study the distribution of volumes and try to understand them further.
Btw I had wondered for so long that it would be multiple times easier if forex data are projected in 3D charts. LOL.
Volumes can take up the 3rd dimension…
So much going on, yet you manage to keep on top of everything. That for me is a touch of excellence. Nice work!
Smooth as silk :), I have been trying to understand this bit through screen time and some stats. I think this makes a lot of sense.
In fact the time frame aspect makes perfect sense in many ways and IMHO H1 is a better fit as you have pointed if you need to look for FIBO’s.
As for longer time frames it seems like coincidence. Let me try my shot at explaining this.
In every logical daily session there is a tug between buyers and sellers of a CCY pair / instrument. When Buyers dictate you have an upward impulse. This impulse goes on to say as far as the ratio stretches betwen Sellers to Buyers, say 5-95 (% of Seller/ Buyers is technically never equal to 100 although close), sometimes even 0-100%. Then its over brought and the buyers start giving up as they have done their bit. We then see a natural retrace, as slowly they switch to selling and then it drops 10-90, then 15-85, then 30 - 70 etc… as this happens the red candles start appearing and depending on the trading sessions time (& its associated volume impacts and volatility) this goes on till the ratio is 50-50 (60-40) and everyones now thinking which side will this move, then there’s a flat forming. Else if in the subsequent session (timezone) they decide to agree with the previous session then it may stop at 60-40 and start moving up again… etc… Now so IMHO this is a daily phenomenon stretched over hourly periods. (Why hourly, maybe because that’s how our clocks and our internal clocks work right from start of work, lunch breaks, tea times, meetings, planning, EOD etc etc, again this is what I think). There is also historical prices that the market remembers (Highs and Lows) again associated with some earlier hourly prices just as above, hence the daily movements with support and resistance.
If this makes any sense.
Again with the instruments, when I start correlating them and also look at how much a move is caused because of their varying strength and momentum, its not really a standard across all the instruments. What’s a standard for one based on the difference in CCY strengths is not a standard for another, the activity is key and the volumes does make the difference. Although the tilting of ratios when the price moves up and then down is similar across currencies (as this causes basic upward / downward moves) the momentum and the angle has a lot to do with the volumes and thanks to your stats and all the earlier knowledge that this thread had to offer this seems to come out evidently. I very often see good setups and moves at 12pm, 1am, 2/3 am GMT but without the volumes price would never move, unless there’s an indirect push in the Asia session. And I would be thinking if they have the direction right why cannot all the move happen then… but again its the volumes, that’s when there are more givers (politely) in the market.
Again the 20 pips apply for most popular CCY pairs as they are some ways correlated, whereas for the ones that are not closely correlated they may not. So in future if there are more complex and disparate correlation strategies, then it may be 2 sets of thresholds not the just 20 pips that might exists… again this is my understanding or though process. Your stats beautifully shows this and to me it seems 20 pips is what it takes to build the momentum and after that depending on activity it goes all the way along and in the absence of activity if Buyers / Sellers are exhausted then there’s the retracement. Again not necessarily including / discussing Smart money , forced moves etc.
Let me check on the tick data history and see I thought as some point where I was trying to analyse that you could get much longer histories… I’ll come back.
All in all, its seems sweet and thanks for all this man… again… let me know if the thought process makes sense, I am still seeking to understand better and learn as you know…
Just a newbies view
Silver 
thank you for that… in fact I already have the vertical lines… on a continuous basis through each trading day…
And I think your earlier picture representation on futures, options and spot made perfect sense. This came at the right moment as I was looking at answers in futures / options… and have been trying to dig deeper into this. 
Lack of time in the past few weeks have slowed me down though.
Thank you…
-Silver
Your recommendation comes at the right time, as I was searching for more reliable forex brokers. Anyway, do you have any experience with these guys?
After many long hours of staring at your work (mostly statistics related to the 20pip rule…) I finally understand how price moves back and forth in smaller time-frames and the probabilities of price breaking into larger moves in higher timeframes (creating larger wave lengths.) Sweet stuff!
My next goal is to understand:
- options/futures levels you mentioned
- market sentiments of major players
- how news affects PA
- key support/resistance levels
- market time zones
Btw I have a couple of questions (sorry for being a pain…)
1.have you done any more statistical research on tick data (perhaps done recently for a longer period than 1yr)
2.Is VWMA a custom programmed indicator? (is there any similar indi built-in with MT4…)
Thanks a lot
Hey rel sorry for the long response time lol, I’ve been creeping the thread in my dwindling spare time as I’ve had final exams and been on a trip to the UK for the past three weeks. On a side note, I HIGHLY recommend visiting Edinburgh if you guys ever get the chance 
haha. I just exported MT4 data to excel and then just built up charts there. Kinda rudimentary but I haven’t had too much time to trade or program 
so I’ve had to make due with what I can muster up but regardless of that I’ve been making very consistent gains. Nothing amazing, but regardless profits are profit and the money grew a lot more than in the bank. Luckily this next semester I’m only taking one class and working part time so MORE TIME TO TRADE and PROGRAM and RESEARCH :D.
I’ll do a little write up of what my trading was like and what I plan on doing this semester as I’d like to get your opinion on it Relativity. but other than that from what I’ve been reading in the thread the rest of you guys are doing pretty awesome! I love that more people are joining in the thread and seeing that in trading it truly is a jungle, and the only way we can survive is by learning the fundamental law of the jungle (or market :P). That there is a food chain, and you need to learn what the big guys are doing and when so that you know when to get the “scraps”. Yeah we have to come to grips that we’re not big players in the forex world (though who knows one of us might someday be, cough relativity cough haha), but realistically what a lion leaves as scraps when he’s done is a feast for a mouse. So we need to see where the big players are doing and be able to see through the complexity of the market and see that it really is all just a buyer and a seller, whether they are selling or buying right now (spot market) or selling or buying for the future (futures and options market) it doesn’t matter everyone wants to win and there’s only so little to go around, so see where the big boys are going and someday soon, we will all be big predators.
Now on to how I’ve been trading this summer.
At first I was following a lot of what Jason Alan Jankovsky was doing. Listening in to his daily morning forex briefings, whenever class didn’t get in the way, and in essence letting myself slightly bias to his analysis. Though I still used the techniques I chose for my system;
-watching different forex news sites
-reading the economist, financial times, and news rss feeds daily
-using Index currency charts (eg. EURxxx, USDxxx, etc.)
-watching level extremes ( session high/low, daily high/low, weekly high/low, monthly high/low, quarterly high/low)
-tick/liquidity volumes (sort of looked at futures/options volume because of JAJ’s morning briefings but never looked into it myself until he stopped doing his briefings then I just looked at it through the CME website)
-last but not least money management tools to pick proper lot sizes and how much to add or reduce a current open trade depending on how the trade is progressing
I made pretty good profits during that period but when JAJ announced he would stop doing his morning briefings I realized that it had such a fundamental flaw that went against the principles of Relativity Trading, that I couldn’t believe I didn’t see it. What if JAJ stopped doing his briefings! Remember the point of this is to be completely self sufficient and be able to survive everything going away such that the only thing you have is a feed of prices coming in. At that point JAJ had also said he’d continue doing a weekly briefing as he was starting an investment fund and would be updating everyone on his progress and whatnot, but I felt I couldn’t listen in to his briefings and wanted to ensure I could do it on my own without using his briefings as a crutch so at that point I stopped listening to JAJ’s briefings and continued on my own using what I learned during his briefings (mainly analyzing price action and seeing through what a lot of the media sources put out to see what is really happening in the world, but also learning to use futures and options volume in the analysis).
The rest of the summer I continued using the same tools I chose for my system only I stopped listening to JAJ’s briefings. I found I felt better about my trades and my system worked awesomely. I made very good pip gains through the rest of the summer and my account grew. Moral of the story, always think about what you would do if you lost a source of news, tips, indicators, or anything you use in trading. If you feel you can’t survive without it, then STOP USING IT!! yes that is not a typo STOP USING IT if you feel you can’t trade without it. Of course it’d be VERY hard to trade without MT4, its a great tool, but remind yourself it might not always be there. Learn to make your own charts, of course use the best tool that’s out there but make sure you know how it works! You don’t have to learn to program your own version of MT4, though if you could do better by all means get out of trading forex and start a software company!!! BUT at least know that if MT4 disappeared you’d still be able to trade. Anyways getting a bit too fundamental and repeating what relativity and I think everyone who understand’s relativity’s message is, have been saying.
Understand before you use and don’t let things get in the way of the real picture.
My plan for this next semester is I’m taking an online free statistics course (coursera.org pretty cool site, its ivey league professors that teach the courses for free) and so I’ll be focusing on learning how to program in “R” and looking at it now it might actually be useful for modelling some things and data analysis. Though excel is still pretty awesome. I’m also going to be meeting with a family friend who works at an investment bank here in toronto once every few weeks to talk more in depth about how the futures and options markets work so if you guys want me to ask him anything specific just post it on here and I’ll post the answers along with anything I feel you guys will find interesting. I also found a very interesting book about the history of the study of economics and I gotta say its shown and made me think a lot more about how trading used to be back in the day before computers, coupling that with a documentary I watched about floor traders (Documentary is called floored, VERY GOOD! I highly recommend it! you can find it on youtube, made me kinda sad about floor traders lol) and a lot of thinking about the fundamentals of the market and I’ve come to the conclusion that regardless of how much computers integrate into the market by means of automated trading machines and whatnot, there will NEVER and I repeat NEVER be a lack of need for humans or in essence traders as the fundamental basis of the market is in the difference of opinion between traders and that is what makes the market the market that there will always be someone behind the automated system telling it how to behave and how to learn and adapt so in essence traders will always be needed and since traders will always be needed in the market then the basic rules of Relativity’s trading style/methodology will always be relevant.
ALSO I’m going to be looking into your AVWMA Relativity as since I have a lot more time to spend looking at charts I think it would help a lot in seeing how a session is moving price.
and lastly I’m also going study more of the history of the major currencies and countries at least in the economic and political sense, as this was something I noticed JAJ had a lot of knowledge about and I felt that I was missing as I didn’t know about all that much about the economic and moreso political history of countries and currencies.
New to this forum. Stumbled on this thread by chance and have been doing some reading for the past two days…Hope you guys will not feel offended if i have to drag you back a couple weeks or months. I really want to be on the same page as the rest of you.
I have downloaded modified barrow swing indi and playing with it at the moment
I admire and thank you Rel for teaching people how to make money with no strings attached, very uncommon these days.
thanks. will try tinypic
To OP so you get those prices from mt4 which has a list of the opening, closing, high and lows of each day and each h4 period and then you input it into microsoft excel and they will calcultae a graph for you?
In the 2nd image … Am I missing something here or is it my understanding… I thought the swing move from SD1 up to SD1 down / SD2 up to SD2 down… why does it look like the whole swing from mid July is sitting on a SD1 / 2 and not even coming down to mean… oh my god… I need some education here… how does this pair of lense work ?! Am I not interpreting the way its meant to be…
- Silver
You don’t have to share your indicators, because there is no such thing as ‘free lunch.’ Having said that if you ever consider starting a forex hedge fund or managed accounts (even a signal provider service through platforms like ZuluTrade,) I’m all in. Food for thought… 
Cool but how come price had stayed at Sd1 2 and 3 and has not come back to the blue MA where are the -ve SD 1 and 2… This kind of beats my understanding that the price sways between SD’s say +1 mean -1 etc … Or is this not true… And hence not clear as to how price sways to SD+1 and stays there to move to SD+2 back to SD+1 then SD+3 back to SD +2 and so on without touching or crossing the blue curve / line… The mean… Bear my ignorance if I understood it wrong .
Thank you
-Silver
I agree on the SD1 part. Will try to tweak the AnchoredMA and check … I already have SD3 in it will try on D1 soon… My PC has crashed but will come back shortly…
Thanks
Silver
Looking forward to it.
It really says a lot when you say you’re moving away towards D1 TF… cos I’ve always thought that timeframes higher than H1 is for big players with deep pockets lol. First of all, congratulations. Secondly thanks for sharing everything so far. Thirdly, I don’t know if I’m ready yet, but I’m sure many other experienced traders who follow this thread will love it. Great intro btw…