What Really Turned My Trading Around

[Silver1surfer]

I suspect that Fridays will be used as deciders for what the next weeks price will potentially be and am thinking that the big players are accessing the news that would come over the weekend…

It can’t be too many things that they need to worry about on the weekend as none of them would want to work on the weekend, so the movement on Monday is probably determined on Friday in some form… and this is probably decided by LON and NY …

Friday is generally light in every region after a hard week so I am not sure whether from a psyche perspective someone would want to do all the work on a Fri, there must be signs for a certain level of movement… on Monday to maybe achieve another price target for the next week… say maybe because there is something important from a futures / options perspective the following week or something like that !?

But again if there is a major unplanned news breaking out of China etc on the weekend and the market start moving during Aus / NZ thats another possibility… but this could mean there might be an agreement or correction during LON / NY again to meet some target price range based on important dates the forthcoming week or maybe in the following weeks.

Again I am still learning the overall markets on Futures and options… I am still yet to cover news and expiry … so this is my thought process & MHO… on the points above…

Your comments please…

Cheers
Silver

Am thinking aloud

Interesting observations :

• For options, their start of the week actually started started last friday 4pm NY time.

• Psychologically speaking, people allow whats done and not done on fridays + weekends to determine what their monday and almost the rest of the week would be like.

-Often, some kind of high impact news on friday will shake out traders, with the effect overflowing onto monday.

-Friday often determines one of the weekly extremes.

-Obviously, friday marks the end of a trading week with its close.

-A week ends with New York market. Or is it? It seem to had already ended around Australia / New Zealand / London market in the minds of traders. Remember, people typically view the beginning of fridays as the end already, projecting their thoughts forward in time (and reflecting myself too, yes!).

-Fridays seemed to be a day where forced liquidation happens ALOT, considering that ‘the end is near’ and there are traders who are not confident of holding over the weekend. If so, this means this set of traders are looking for entry next week, preferably monday. This could also explain why fridays tend to go one way very hard, other than news distorting PA, and mondays are ranged bound.

Important questions :
1-What kind of impact does fridays have onto mondays and then the rest of a week?
2-Does its structure give us some idea of SR / SD / direction / volatility for next week?
3-How do we account for actual gaps if it happens?
4-How do we handle the impact of weekends?
5-Does darkpool trading occur over the weekend and overflow towards monday (I suspect yes, if there’s some economy related news from China. I’ve noticed they ‘like’ to release certain news on weekends)

Someone help me out here! => I do see something very very strong in this.

[guandi]

hmm do you find it similiar to Goodman waves? everything is a 123…

[guandi]

hello Relativity,

perhaps SB is not a nutcase after all… your thoughts?

-zhao (guandi)

I don’t know if there are obvious similarities (yet). All I am looking for is the truth. Everything is a theory until it is tested. What I am trying to do now is to get a properly methodology up based off a simple principle :

Price definition of trend = higher highs or lower lows
Price definition of flats = initial failure to make higher highs or lower lows

SB seems to mathematically speaking, provide the means to do so.

Barro Swings might be able to do the job too, but I figured that its better to go back to SB since its my roots.

[guandi]

Hello Relativity,

this last pic does share some resemblance to Goodman…

best regards.

-guandi

I’ve never considered anyone as a nutcase. No one is.

So SB/7th/whoever he is, I say he’s not a nutcase.

His basic premise of ‘the market does have tradable patterns / one can find them using systems / these relationships do exist’ is something I’ve always agreed on for a long long time.

One just needs to find some kind of framework.

[Silver1surfer]

Zhao, u remembered that I used SB to draw waves, before I found Barros Swings right?

I have been using the patterns since you drew this and the earlier pattern on Daily charts and works well… So far so good

I am still reading SB, 5 phases, etc etc… But so far it makes food sense… Can see the flats at the crosses… So far so good… Need to soak some time … Thanks Rela, although I asked you about TCD’s earlier I never got around to it… But am getting there.

The 7th Knight’s thread is cool , very interesting… Cool

Thanks man

Silver

[Silver1surfer]

Yeah, but to fully see things I will have to do more work. I gave up on using SB to draw swings and used Barros Swings instead. SB swings are good, but they lag really bad.

Right now, I’ve found a way to fix SB swings. Looks to me it really is way better than Barros Swings, to see whats really going on in the D1 candles, at the H1 level, without the complications of inside swings of Barros Swings.

Give me some time. I believe this can be the best ZZ indicator ever that follows price well, at least to mark off very clearly the major move of the day at H1 level.

Barros swings uses price time momentum.

SB swings uses price time levels.

See the diff?

Absolutely … I know what that means now. would be interesting to see how this comes up… Diff levels to swing… I Would think the SR also be auto evident when that’s done… Wow

Silver

[Silver1surfer]

Wow. This is more accurate then I thought.

D1 key extremes now shown in H1 view, to tell us where the main moves of each day are.

With this framework now, a lot studies can be done. If done right, this actually dramatically enhances / sharpens the D1 statistical studies that I already have. Primarily I want to concentrate on :

• Phases of the market throughout the week, of how price travels from extreme to extreme.
• Frequency distribution of waves, time length, price length and sorted by day of week.

Can you please elaborate a bit more on the phases of the market through the week !!!
-Silver

[snake24]

how do u create these graphs? Also how do u calculate the wick lengths. I searched historical data amd they have the open close highs and lows and volume.

[snake24]

@Relativity

Excellent; thats a good place to start. You found the raw data.

Export them to excel. Then start by using basic stuff, with some basic logic , like :

If red candle = open is higher than close. If green candle = open is higher than close
Sort them out separately
Then for each type of candle, get their wick lengths :
red candle winner’s wick = high - open
red candle loser’s wick = low - close
green candle winner’s wick = high - close
green candle loser’s wick = low - open
Then, gather all the wick lengths and average/run freq dist/std dev/whatever them.

Excel formulas can perform these tasks with ease. If u don’t know formulas, at least do some manually, like maybe 10 to 20. After you’ve done some manual work, you might had found something worthwhile. This can lead you to justify learning and using excel formulas / or even programming. Try it.

You can see here that DoctorJ got it too =>

These graphs are coded by me. I code my own MT4 indicators to do these calculations for me, since its all already in a template. Then use excel to double check. IMO excel is way easier to get these graphs up. Just basic statistical formulas. Google them. Once you get some basic formula templates up, the rest is really easy.

Hi well i just learnt how to make graphs from excel but formulas i don’t know how to do that. I’ll need to learn how. I also don’t know how excel is going to help me calculate the candle lengths. Here is a graph i created with the daily chart of eurusd from 1st june to 7th sep this yr if i included more data it seems to cramp up and it’s hard to see the charts if i included more data from earlier on.

[snake24]

Wow very nice. I am sure you now can see something, especially the ‘crosses’.

Just keep toying around with excel. Google for tutorials online. Pardon me but its hard for me to go through these nuts and bolts with you. I’ve already stated the basics of how to get candle lengths and wicks at the above post. Basically just get the calculations at spreadsheet right 1st. Then worry about graphs.

Thanks for it and yes i don’t expect you to spoonfeed me i’ll find it myself.

[Relativity]

No offense, but my answer at Mathsnerds.com never got answered. I guess I really have to do the work myself :

I have 120 rows for Y axis. The number of columns for X axis can be unlimited.

Say there is only 1 column of data. The data can be either positive or negative. The data can form a wave that looks like an unknown number of series of sine waves if there is a mix of positive and negative values. Sometimes it only has all negative or positive values, but a waveform is there.

Any suggestions what kind of statistical analysis I can do when number of columns for X axis is more than 20? Some kind of filtering to bring out the frequency band of interest?

Testing the data on EURUSD. I did do some testing on other pairs e.g. GBPJPY and it does map out the 'move of the day pretty nicely.

[angelo20ng]

C:\Users\ANGELO\Desktop\ej.gif

Is this how the indicator should display?

[angelo20ng]

REL, the blue dotted horizontal line is the daily open line (NY Close), when you say price is at an extreme does it mean when price moves in either direction by as much as 20 pips?

[Relativity]

C:\Users\ANGELO\Desktop\ej.gif

Is this how the indicator should display?

Huh? Your picture is not uploaded anywhere. No one can see it.

Pardon me but I said I will not support the indicator. This means support related questions regarding the indicator will not be entertained.

[angelo20ng]

for some reason BP wont let me use tinypic becuase i don’t have enough posts… On the indicator, it was kinda different on the EJ but was ok on other pairs that’s why i asked if thats the way it should be…

[angelo20ng]

I think you have to copy and paste the link into your browser C:\Users\ANGELO\Desktop\ej.gif

[Relativity]

REL, the blue dotted horizontal line is the daily open line (NY Close), when you say price is at an extreme does it mean when price moves in either direction by as much as 20 pips?

Yes. It will then either :
1-stays within the boundary of 20pips
OR
2-break outs of the boundary of 20pips

There are many posts regarding this type of PA as a very common occurance in the thread => Its there.

Found the impt one :

See anything? This alone answers lots of things.

[Relativity]

I think you have to copy and paste the link into your browser C:\Users\ANGELO\Desktop\ej.gif

‘C:\Users\ANGELO\Desktop\ej.gif’ is your computer’s path. You have to upload the picture somewhere 1st.

[Relativity]

for some reason BP wont let me use tinypic becuase i don’t have enough posts… On the indicator, it was kinda different on the EJ but was ok on other pairs that’s why i asked if thats the way it should be…

The no of posts you have to get is … I don’t know? 10? What I did is to post almost ‘random’ comments for my first batch of posts in BP => LOL

I don’t know about EJ. I didnt test it there, but I really dont have the time.

[angelo20ng]

Yes. It will then either :
1-stays within the boundary of 20pips
OR
2-break outs of the boundary of 20pips

There are many posts regarding this type of PA as a very common occurance in the thread => Its there.

Thanks for clarifying…

“‘C:\Users\ANGELO\Desktop\ej.gif’ is your computer’s path. You have to upload the picture somewhere 1st”.

I’ll upload the pix again using tinypic since i now have over 5posts.