HUGE amounts of info here, going to take me a while to get through - but thought I’d say thanks first!
Have you looked at or considered this volume tick analysis in relationship to what the daily and weekly trend has been during the 21 weeks of your data?
Anyone who have a code for measuring of a swing length ?tk
Sorry for interupting
Pretty nice stats you have going - I’ve been reading over your thread quite a bit, and will have to re-read to understand it fully, but I love the application of statistics and grids. I’d never seen anyone do that before, always indicators and signals. I think I like this better.
I’ve done quite a bit of computer programming myself (know many languages) so I’ll probably end up re-creating some of your grids for myself, but for use on Marketscope instead of MT4 (I like that charting software most) and they have MT4 with their feeds too - I also notice how you’d love Tick info - have you looked at the FXCM Marketscope? They have Tick data - and seems to be pretty good over all, but I haven’t run an in-depth analysis yet - always taught the Daily frame and stuff - whole new world here.
Now I’m really glad I took that statistics course and algorithms creation/discrete optimization. PS: If there are some indicators you’d like to forward along, I’ll love to try an port them 
When he does start clicking into gear he might want to get on the blower to one of this lot & offer his services.
They’ll throw more money at him than he can shake a stick at.
In fact, if he forms a tag team with the ‘worlds greatest trader’ up on newbie island they can form their own central bank & cure world poverty.
Macro Hedge Funds Stink at Market Timing | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
Email - if you’d like
Too bad FXCM pulled out of your country, but once I get more experienced with your stats and methods, I’ll definitely forward along anything I might find through Tick data (assuming I learn this properly)
Rela,
what timzone is your broker based off? Trying to understand the stats…
Wow! How many math classes have you taken lol? I’m gonna start going through this thread seems very interesting but also very hard to comprehend. And I’ve always caught onto things pretty quickly. Looks like good work. Only got trough a few posts tho. Also where r u from?
isn’t that the point of trading 
not having to be an employee
Yeah really. Once I see those endless stats my brain locks up lol. Going to try to absorb what I can…Elliot wave pattern in volume fluctuations?? Now that got my attention lol…cool.
I’m bit scared that we might be following ‘Yale students’ as TRO calls it…lol.
But still I have done some research with H1 statistics myself, and believe there are 101 ways to trade and be in profits in the long run. e.g. think about if you trade every hour against the candle color (or towards the color) of the previous H1 close. there is massive potential, given that you are prepared for drawdowns and losing streaks. My point here is that its definitely profitable in the long run - plus you don’t have to scratch your head predicting the next price direction.
I’m also looking at GBPUSD H1 charts and find some interesting patterns. e.g. there is a good chance that weekly high or low is established on Mondays… don’t know exact percentages or probabilities, perhaps Rel can shed some thought on this.
I believe in trading higher time frames for better ROI, e.g. running the weekly trends by analyzing H1 charts and use M15 for entries. Fib levels to be the core indicator in entry and exit.
Rel, I love the fact that you are researching into weekly trends. But I think weekly patterns differ from instrument to instrument, unlike the 20 pip rule you mentioned early in this thread.
Best Regards
Ok. About the GBPUSD H1 charts…
I was looking for possible trend projections based on how the market moves on Mondays. Because Mondays mark the open of a week, perhaps the volatility on Mondays might provide clues for the whole week (you can see how much I loved the concept of ‘Market DNA’…lol).
I think the H1 trend on Mondays have something to tell about the week. If the main Monday trend is bigger then there is better chance of bigger weekly trend in the opposite direction. This is basically what I saw, (or wanted to see…). I don’t have any statistical proof of the probabilities or such.
About the fibos, when I draw a fibo for the Monday H1 trend, it seems that over the week, the price respects certain levels (extremes) such as 23.6,161.8, 261.8 and 423.6 - serving as possible entry/exit points.
I don’t know if there is something worthwhile here yet, maybe not. But I like the concept of predicting the week based on Mondays. I’ll be happy if I’m correct at least a 50% of the times, given the potentials of weekly trends.
Weekly patterns differing in each instrument, is just an opinion.
Cool. The problem is identifying the bounces, before it happens (to a certain degree…). How would you know, because the M15 is littered with SB crosses. Also its a dangerous prospect to hunt for tops and bottoms at any level.
Btw, your sample just shows that Mondays usually marks weekly Highs or Lows.
- I drew fibos for both directions when there are two or more distinctive H1 trends for both directions.
- When followed by a new High or low on a tuseday, I would redraw the fibo for the last completed wave.
When I did the above, the weekly trend was almost certain to hit the 261.8 for the main trend direction.
Again, might be a coincidence. But for the moment, I’d like to think not…
I know you’re bit skeptical about ‘magical’ fibo numbers. SB bounces are great, but knowing the bouncing points beforehand is some task, unless you have cracked something in the M15 or M30 to zoom the bounce in detail…lol
My idea is to catch one major trend per week. I know I might get stopped out a few times before I do so.
To be honest I haven’t been able to read the SB crosses as you do. Perhaps you need special TCD eyes to do so.
Btw who are MF and GWT?
That makes me wonder if the weekly chart is the best to follow. You’re right. Sometimes your trend patterns from the previous week is completed in the following. Have you considered any unconventional time frames to lock trends in. e.g. 7 working days, 8 or 12 may be.
So far this week I’m with the upside bias for GBPUSD (so it should somewhat similar on EURUSD, IMHO). Lets see what the price does and what we get. After all, that’s all we have to do, waiting…
EURUSD established low for today is 1.2890. If that is broken today or tomorrow, I will look for shorting opportunities for the week. But I’m really interested in how GBPUSD forms today. First H1 candle marked the high of 1.6081 for the day (so far) and low is 1.6020, whats more the price ranges in between afterwards. Although I’m expecting a long breakout, I will wait till the day finishes in order to confirm my entry points for the weekly trade.
If it breaks long, I expect at least a 100 pip move during the week, so the first target would be around 1.6175 mark. Lets see how it plays out today…
Looks very interesting, specially because you look for the best odds…
Could you please elaborate on those percentages a bit, I’m having a difficult time understanding the numbers.
Thanks in advance
Hi Rela,
Wow congrats, now you got the live stats.
What’s tmr?
Have I read the stats right? For example the odds following a D2 is U1 with 16% - 48.5%?
Is the first row the lower level? If yes, what does U1: 129% 39.8% mean?
Thanks rel, but I was looking to get grips with wave patterns. I was combing through the thread to find the post where you had defined wave patterns. I think it will take some time for me to digest all this, anyway.
Thanks again.
Yep, thats the one. Somehow I missed it. Sure I went through all posts from page 130 onwards…
Anyways, thanks a lot.