Entered GBPUSD @ 1.6060 on Monday and eventually the target of 1.6174 was hit just now. +114 pips. Right at the foot of 261.8 level.
Rel, whats your stand on EURUSD SB-wave forecast? GBPUSD formed a U1 early today, another U1 next? I’m not sure for the moment, so will watch the market for now.
Thanks. Yeah, I saw even GBPUSD started heading down. Looks like its gonna be the direction from now on… But I will wait till tomorrow for any possible entries.
Hi Rel,
Yes i totally 100% agree with this, especially when it comes to the individuals perception and interpretation.
Some people learn better visually, others through text, and others through numbers.
Whatever is best for the person is how they should model their info for better interpretation and with this better learning.
Lol, yeah, im not quite concerned with patterns per se, but i must admit they do factor in a lot in the end.
Take this picture for example:
http://oi45.tinypic.com/35k2v68.jpg
Are the 4 patterns the same? They are identical, yet, one will break up, one will break down, one will bounce down, one will bounce up.
So if the 4 patterns are the same ‘visually’, how to identify the REAL differences?
This is where my research is moving into.
Because IF it can be proven possible then what a trader ends up with is a classification of price movements which are all mutually interlinked in a never ending sequence. Spooky hey? :30: :64:
I start following this thread few months ago, and at that time I gave up since I was searching for something easier (press here for MONEY).
My research kind of end up after I lost enough money :-)
Now I'm studying the thread again, post by post, and I can see how many things I need to learn before fully grasp the powerful concepts it contain.
A problem I'm experiencing right now is that I can't make the ModifiedBarrosSwing indicator work for me. It looks of for the smaller time frames (1 minute), but if I use it on D1 or H1 the results are weird (picture enclosed). I've tried with many setting (I just change the number of candles parameter, from 5 to 12, 60, 300, 1440...) and even with 2 different MT4 installations.
Since I’m stuck here and can’t really proceed until I fully grasp the underlying concept of the fractal swings, I’ll be grateful if you can help me or redirect me to the right post.
This is in fact the essence of trading, for me. One can look at a fairly large candle or a big swing and think that if he had entered at the start of that move, he would have made so much and so. But what if the losing wick had formed first, and his SL was within that range? Or worse, a larger draw down happened half way through the candle that would have formed the losing wick? The funny part is, we never know and we can never tell - whats next.
This is where methodology and long term consistency come to play. And discipline, yes. If one is not humble enough to accept the markets as they are, then any tool, indicator or method will not help.
Looking forward to your research. Definitely looks interesting.
Woulda Coulda Shoulda. Ever heard of ‘dynamic programming’?
Building a house takes time, patience, discipline, and small steps: Laying one brick at a time.
Them 4 ‘visually identical patterns’ are not identical, and within them lies the difference for each given scenario. The question becomes: Can these patterns be ‘broken down’, isolated, tested and verified?
If you think you can, or you cant, you are right.
Dont get me wrong, im not a stats or programing genius, but, using logic and imagination is foundational.
All the stats in the world wont tell you anything unless you know what to look for and how to implement it.
What do you accept (or believe) the market to be? Tell me the truth 
Thanks, yeah theres a lot of sifting, organizing, dissecting, classifying involved.
Of course, without the right tools for the job it is impossible. So the question is: Do i KNOW which tool/s i need for the job?
Aha. Its a secret…lol.
You really wanna know? Ask Rel about ‘smart money’ and ‘who’ really moves price (big time). Supply and demand of retail traders like us count for merely nothing.
I think this is the reason why Rel moved onto researching weekly waves.
I love seeing the thread come alive with ideas, and I especially love when I see other people learning and discovering the things I learned and discovered from this thread also.
I don’t post very often but I like to come back and throw my hat in the ring every now and then, and I always keep up with reading the new posts.
THIS ^^^^^^
is huge.
Its a lot of what I’ve been using to trade and something I saw being put into use almost daily. Seeing where the big volume traders are moving is a big part of trading. Open interest volume from the CME on futures and options are a good sentiment indicator. Though its not spot forex its still a good indicator of sentiment for us.
Best of all, all the info is free 
FX Daily Exchange Volume & Open Interest
Yes, it is huge. Volume comes before everything else for me. I never trade against what it’s telling me, and I look for entries/confluence to trade with it. The problem I have with Futures volume is that, although it’s actual volume being traded, it represents a small portion of the entire foreign exchange market. (maybe 1/5? I’m not sure)
Spot forex on the other hand is the majority of the market, and we get to measure the activity/volume. If high volume can only be caused by smart money (big players), then we are shown when/where they are active via volume. If we want to know if that activity is mainly buying or selling, we have to know how they operate. They have principles.
I agree, but would also emphasize that when trading currencies we are in fact trading pairs (this is something Rel delved into here forum). So just because we see ‘volume’ in any way/shape/form hitting the market, in actuality it doesnt truly represent the whole market as one, it only taps into a small portion.
Just because e/u experiences heavy volume entering long does not mean it is smart money (be it daily, weekly, tick chart…whatever). It could simply be an “effect” (a ripple if you will) produced by heavy hitters selling like wild fire the usd accross the board.
Money flows. This is a huge ingredient as to see how/why/when/where they operate and shift money from one place to another (billions) which is then represented via volume et al.
Well, i do have my thoughts which may (or may not) coincide with this above (weekly waves) but my understanding was to do with ‘pip/time efficiency’, must of misunderstood.
Nevertheless, money (flows) will hit the market at any given moment for no ‘apparent’ reason (to us), yet, it will still move the market in one way or the other for a relatively large amount. And money will hit the market in an instant, which in turn produce persistant moves (trends if you will) as blocks of orders are entered accross a range of sort :33:
I don’t know about “principles” but they do have patterns:21:. I think of the big money movers as essentially being elephants. These elephants, being as large as they are, must leave very clear footprints somewhere so that we too can follow these behemoths in the right direction.
Volume is the footprint.
Volume does have hourly and and daily cycles, it seems… Rel, is this what you are looking into?
Lot of traders are picking tops and bottoms against main direction, hence the volumes in opposite color piles up and peaks towards the end of the move. Do you use this info to fine tune entries?
Do you mean that volumes indicate micro moves and price direction within major moves?
And also that volume peaks at price peaks at the same time…
This is intriguing and I was looking at the same logic for the last couple of weeks (that Monday marks the high or low for the week, or at least have high probability of that happening). Rel, do you have any statistical analysis of Mondays range in terms of the weekly wave?
Or may be you’ve already talked about this, in this very thread…
I have no idea if I’m thinking too deep or not deep enough into this but I’m just gonna say what I think I see not just from the synthetic index charts but about volume in general.
Volume is the footprint big movers leave. during volume peaks is when big movers try to hide their positions. Since the big movers can’t do one gigantic trade at once without vastly altering the market, they try to break them up into a lot of “little” trades (in quotes because for us they’d still be huge trades lol). So of course when they start doing their moves volume will ramp up.
This does not necessarily translate to high volatility or large price movements. High volume only means an accumulation of interest in one side, the other, or a net accumulation of no side as there is an equal amount of people buying and selling. Eventually one side gets big enough that there’s not enough buyers/sellers and thus price drops/rises.
The problem is that the big traders don’t want to throw in a bunch of buy/sell orders and risk price moving up/down before all their orders are filled. So what they do is they let put orders then price breaks out then let it retrace then they put their orders again, then let it retrace, then repeat. The special thing is that it can go both ways. at the start of a trend or the end of a trend.
Those orders don’t necessarily have to be to enter the market, it could be to exit it. So therefore watching what’s happening with volume could help signal the end of a trend as there will be more volume in the opposite direction as the big players start to exit.
Dead on, 100% right imo.
You figured that out on your own? Keep going and see how far the rabbit hole goes. 
sort of, just came to that from a lot of watching charts, listening to JAJ, and talking out loud to myself when I’m alone in my car about what really moves the market lol 
I don’t know though.
I feel there’s more that I’m not seeing. And I feel it has something to do with the fact that the synthetic index charts are one directional. In that in a currency pair its neither up or down, its just a balance of volume of trades between two currencies, so as has been stated in the thread before when eur/usd goes up. It doesn’t necessarily mean euro is getting stronger or more people are buying euro. It can mean that usd is losing influence(traders losing confidence in usd, can also happen in other pairs) and they’re selling usd, so theres less demand for usd in general so across the board currency pairs denominated in usd go up as people value usd less.
So now I’m trying to think how this translates to volume. I know there’s more but damn it I can’t finish a full thought on applying that to one directional synthetic index’s while at work :(. only one more hour of work left.
Money In, Money Out…hmm…
This is aligned with my research and the strategy im aiming to build (along with my other comments).
But the bottom line is to get in when money flows into a particular currency, and get out when it leaves that currency. Classifying all potential scenarios that occur when money flows in/out in different intensities and depth.
The only thing that concerns (my research) is the decentralized aspect of the spot market…how can you truly gauge the volume is for real? Maybe a (cognitive) bias your seeing here?
Not sure what you refer to as to your ‘blind side’, but as for reducing hassle of multiple currency charts im 100% with you here, and it is part of my theory (not plausible yet) as a means to eliminate all the fluffs and focus purely on key content. Lets face it 80% of tools are useless…20% are key (pareto law estimate).
Inter-Market relationship. Triplets of pairs can clear up a lot with a lot of lateral thinking.
Check out ‘unknownfx’ in FF and his threads…lot to glean in there.
But overall my personal aim is to trade close to the pulse of the market (scalping) by applying these concepts (money flows, inter-market relations, frequency distributions, movement types/classifications) and simplifying them to absolute efficiency, so no need for distractions and/or multiple charts open…all on one…nice and clean.
Time will tell haha.