Hi Rela, what your 3 indicators at bottom?
Yeah, not so good for trading but for observing things. Btw, have you released MP with projection yet ? Appreciated if you do so.
All my respect, i moving to swing now. THank for pointing at Tuesday L/H being H/L of the week.Admit that, i was killed btw your method and Larry Williams’. The problem is i like both. Larry said he could not comprehend math in forex 
He said it too stress for him in term of intraday. Now i must choose btw math or cyclic.Spot or future.Tick volume or contract one. Must pick 1.Or try to be reconciled.Higher TF for trend and Trading TF for tuning position. However math guy like you help me to see the price action better in short-term. Cyclic like Larry long one. Of course understand better non equals to trading better. Need more than that
Glad to see you interested in GBP/USD. Market now so calm. EUR/USD almost stand still. Bernanke already told EU to keep ugly things under rug for US election. So what we should do ? I see you trading EUR/JPY. Btw, IMHO, there are 3 levels of trading pairs in fx:
Level 1: USDxxx except GBP and NZD, together with only EUR/GBP cross
Level 2: USDxxx and JPY cross excep GBP/JPY
Level 3: GBPxxx and cross such as EUR vs CAD, AUD
Do you think to move to GBP/AUD or EUR/CAD which more pips per day rather than stuck in EUR/USD ? Maybe because it is not enough backing and filling like EUR/USD for scalping ?Or you can use your talent in bigger TFs. For example, AUD/USD always moving behind SP500 about 1 week or in order to SP being collapsed a precedent top on bond’s yield also required. How do you think ? You not trusted any TF bigger than 1 hour’s in OCT marke, arent you? Ok that fine And sorry for provoking something !
Hello Relativity,
thanks for the pictures, i added something to it. I find it easier to see.
Image - TinyPic - Free Image Hosting, Photo Sharing & Video Hosting
best regards.
-guandi
hi rel,
i have been following your work silently for last 3 months.I have known about your two mentors tro and sb beforehand thanx to google but its only after u mentioned them that i started taking these guys seriously.For quite sometime i wanted to ask you to discuss sb’s work as i find it really difficult to comprehand the wall of texts he has littered all over internet.So i got very happy when i read this post.Thanx a ton rel for being so generous to share your hard work.You are really a very inspiring rolemodel for all smalltime traders.
hi rel,
I cant SEE anything good so far.lol.My understanding of sb goes like this…
Two candle Tcds H-pL and L-pH.This provide us info about the magnitude…direction and volatility of the move.Its like higher tcd is trend extention/rally and lower tcd is trend contraction/correction.
Also…H-O+C-L= buying pressure and O-L+H-C=selling pressure.These in relation to range of the candle may lead to something useful.lol.
I am still reading sb so hope will discover more new ideas… insights in future.please lend me your spectacles till then.lol.
Admit again, i really torn apart btw the way of Rela and Larry Wiliams’. He said last sunday gold will be up today and here it goes. Nice catching from 1710 up to 1722 at early Asia . The way of Rela is good too, look at the chart and you see gold already breakout from that weekly down swing, so according to Rela’s gold must be in range. According to Larry’s gold bias up up. So …just long… i am not doing anything good here
I am too happy so i am sharing the idea of gold. Bond usually goes up at the 2 lats trading days of the month and so does gold. It is rare for both gold and bond going hand in hand. Have you focused on monthly ending yet, Rela ?
Hey Rel,
Here is an interesting article to read. It aligns with what you’ve shared here.
Knowledgebase: Trading Strategies, Indicators, Paint Bars, Functions
I have an issue with Weis Wave. It shows the cumulative volume of a swing and says, if it’s an up swing with a lot of volume there is a lot of buying. This in NOT always true and is by no means a universal law.
Example…there is an up wave that is stopped with heavy, high volume selling off the top of the wave. Weis is going to count that as buying volume because it’s still an up wave. In VSA however, those would be called “hidden sellers”.
If you compare Volume amount against the progression of a wave…ah ha, now you’re on to something, and those sellers would not be so hidden. The guys that really move the market are a step ahead, often selling high and buying low with high volume stopping the progress.
As far as candle opens/spread/close they are fractal cycles. Using the same example, a candle can open at 1.000, move up to 1.010 then close at 0.9992. That rejection of the higher prices, if on high volume, says higher prices brought large sellers into the market. The usual accumulating of positions by the pros. Often it’s when there are no more buyers (no demand) to give them high prices to sell into that they switch over and sell to intentionally mark down and make profit. That’s why the majority will always lose.
…A price footprint as you call it, that would be a tick chart no?
:31:
Pete,
Could you elaborate just a bit on this statement? My intuition tells me there is something deeply profound here but I am too simple minded to figure it out. Maybe if you type slowly so I can keep up…?
I have missed a lot I think in the last month or so and will catch up, but I think I’d want to use 999 to say THANK YOU !!! :)… Really grateful…
- Silver
lol, remembering that volume is a measurement of activity we can compare effort (amount of volume) versus result (amount of price progress). So, if price is trending up and the volume increases but the upside progress decreases or pulls back as a result, we have spotted smart money selling into the up move. There is a world of difference between that scenario, and price pulling back from average or low volume. That would suggest buy interest is less but not a real trend change. In that case looking to buy pullbacks. Hope that makes sense.
Perfect sense. Thanks.
P.S. Thank you for typing slowly!
Howdy,
There is something that I really dislike about this thread… And that is that I found it so late!!! This thread is really good, at least for getting the creative juices flowing so-to-speak. I stopped posting everywhere on trading forums in the past 9 months or so, and strangely a bud directed me to this thread as he told me it was similar to a lot of things I’ve worked on before. I spent the last 5 days reading the ENTIRE THREAD!!! TWICE… well once was just a quick skim through the links in the first post, and one good full read.
I have spent quite a bit of time working on concepts [I]similar[/I] to the ones discussed in the thread. I have never been able to ‘put it together’ so to speak, or to be able to use the information that I’ve mined in any practical sense however.
I currently trade using the tape/levelII DOM (xtrader-like). But, this is not an easy way to grow capital at a geometric rate in a fast period of time. I also like the idea of being able to define a way of trading that is more OBJECTIVE in nature. For that reason I’ve spent considerable time investigating such methods. I usually put it down after a time and come back to it later. My current progress isn’t where I think it should be, but hopefully you guys are still around.
I would like to post some of the things I’ve worked on, none of it ground breaking, and most of the work has been done index futures. My tools have mainly been NinjaTrader, and writing custom basic scripts to gather various numbers for me. I did some analysis in excel, matlab and even a test trial of the Tableau Software.
I’d like to continue to work with such ideas trading the FX. It would be a good instrument to mess around with and be able to risk a small amount of capital while putting such things together.
I’ll be posting some of my past studies up, and then hopefully some new ideas I may have in the next few days.
Thanks for the thread!
Just to show the parallels with this thread and things I’ve tried, will be attaching some pics. These are just the things I could find right now. Also, I’m sure I could find better examples, but I’m just trying to give a pretty generic idea of things I’ve looked at, probably leaving a lot out as well.
[B]LRCs…[/B]
A few years ago, I was attempting to locate turning points across various time frames, my tool of choice was Trend Lines, and then later LRCs. Mainly this was me looking for HH/LLs, and looking to trade the next HL that occurred. Initially this was done manually with hand drawn LRCs, eventually created a script that allowed me to pick the anchor point on the chart, and the LRC would be drawn forward as price progressed (this version shown in the pics). But even still, didn’t find anything practical, or patterns that stood out. My thought was the price liked to move in two standard deviations. SO the idea was that once price maid a HH on the big TF… and the med TF began to pb… you would trade the BO of the smaller 3rd tf in the direction of the big TF, using the 2std dev as the minimum pb distance, and bo point on smaller tf. This was all using range bar charts. Attached is basic picture showing this idea, from Nov 2010, E/U. None of this is important, just sharing some things I’ve explored on the path of research.
This whole idea was just attempting to find the various waves of different sizes, across multiple TFs. But the drawing of waves, along with the swing points I would pick, I felt was very random and subjective. I couldn’t come up with a way to define the various timeframes, or know which one I was picking out? So similar to the discussion of the LRC use earlier in this thread. Although, I see sb or BS swings would have helped around that time in picking out more useful swing points
[B]TTT…[/B]
I also spent a bit of time with the ideas of “The Taylor Trading” technique. I didn’t really expect it to be something I would use for trading, but was just trying to see if it could help give me some ideas with regards to collecting useful stats. So I scripted up the entire program, along with a DDE to send results from NT directly to excel. The purpose of this was to be able to create a TTT book automatically, instead of doing it by hand, so I could look at the results across various time periods, and for different instruments. Attached is a picture of the program output, compared to the original book. You can see it’s pretty similar.
For the uninitiated, this is the idea of dividing days into subsets of 3 (Buy, Sell, and SellShort Days), and observing the distance each day may travel beyond the prior day High/Low, and attempting to enter the trade based on that expectancy, and trying to capture the main portion of the days move. I also have videos showing the tool in use if anyone wants, but it’s not important, just showing some research.
[B]Wave Analysis…[/B]
Coupled with the first idea, I have spent some time trying to see if I could anticipate future waves, or at least create a bank of stats that would help me find trades. I can’t seem to find too much of my research from that as it was a looong time ago. This analysis was done on NQ, with a minimum swing size of 20 tics. So any swing greater than 20 tics, was considered a new swing. I spent quite a bit of time with that, but I really couldn’t figure out a way to put it together in a practical sense.
But attached is a sheet showing some of the ideas there. You can see a bunch of data off to the left (ignore this for now)… on the right is just the swings (boxed with red boxes). You can see the “Clock Time” each event occurred each day, the “TD” distance in tics each swing was in length, the “TicOpen,” the distance each event occurred from the open, and finally the “TmeOpen” which is the amount of time in minutes each event occurred from the open. As you can see I thought there was some significance to the open.
[B]Additional Wave Analysis…[/B]
The next thought was to simply look at the MAJOR waves that occurred on any given day. Each day has an Open, High,Low and Close. SO my thought was that each day would start at the open, and it could only unfold just a few ways…
[ul]
[li]Move from the open to the high or low first, then move to the next high or low (like Rels U3/U4 or D3/D4)
[/li][li]BEGIN at the high/low, then move to next high/low (like Rels U1/D1 wave)
[/li][li]There is activity that corresponds to the close, but my thought was to initially ignore that, as I was looking to capture the main move of the day
[/li][li]
[/li][/ul]
So I captured data for this. Attached is a picture of such data collection. With that my assumption was that the ORDER of the H/L for each day was important. At the time, I coudln’t make sense of it, or get data to support it. But after reading the thread, I have some ideas about how this might fit in looking at the WEEKLY progression of Highs/Lows as a delimiter of sorts. Before this, I couldn’t imagine a way that this information could fit in. But I’ll have to do some study on the matter.
If anyone is interested, I did a video a while back of the initial ideas. NOthing significant, but it does give a general idea of the thought process initially. I have other vids, but this one is just a basic group of ideas. That video is here:
Market Analysis Part 1 - YouTube
EDIT - Just realizing that I made this video a year ago, pretty much to the day of THIS posting :45:
[B]Just for giggles…[/B]
Haha, and on another note, of the SB ideas of using the H-prL and pH-L, I didn’t have that idea specifically, but I had another idea. And that was to use prior pa to project future pa. By taking prior data, and transposing it about the x/y axis, through the current bar. Totally not the same idea, but something similar. I never really found anything of use with it. Again, nothing really related to sb, but just an idea none the less. You can see the green projected price at any time.
Boy I wish I had found this thread sooner, as it seems few people attempt to describe mkt behavior in this way. And the idea of defining objective trading methods, with accuracy that allows one to grow at a geometric rate are thought to be impossible
So I understand that volume is much more structured the lower you look. I.e. when looking at a 1hr chart, there is typically distribution around the high vol areas. On the higher timeframe, volume is much less organized.
With the first pic, that is all you’re trying to convey with that picture right? Or am I missing something else? I think that’s what you’e saying in the pic, simply that as the time increment we are observing increases/vol structure decreases… and somewhere in there exists a co-equilibrium point where they display some similar behavior? Or am I reading too much into it with the idea of some type of point of balance, and it’s just about the volume structure in relation to time increment viewed?
That 2nd pic, I’m not sure if I understand what you are trying to convey? I would think you’re saying that the similar thing as I mentioned above, just in a different way?
I have been thinking about this deeply, meanwhile scanning through H1-D1 charts since reading the post…
Ok, the part about looking for abnormalities in volume structure based on the time increment of observation, I understand conceptually. It makes sense. But that might be where having the right set of glasses to see it comes in? Or the data needs to be organized in a certain fashion? It could be deviation from an average, could be looking for extreme outliers… just thinking of ways to actually classify such data. I may have to think about this more.
With regards to the picture… Still not sure? But thinking about it is fun! Maybe if you could tell me what you meant by “Timing of Price Action,” and “Price Level Concentration?” I’m a bit confused on what you particularly meant by that wording?
THis question is interesting, could have a bunch of different rationales. My guess would be based on how humans typically structure our lives… People get up, we go to work EACH day with the goal or idea of working that day. Most of what we do, or how we interact with people is based on a daily cycle. If you go to work, you usually won’t see those people for 24 hours. The sun rises and sets on a similar fashion. When we eat dinner, we typically won’t have another dinner for about 24 hours. I would imagine the people that trade function in a similar fashion. A somewhat self-fulfilling prophecy sort-off.
Thanks for the response. I’ve been thinking about the above thoughts all day.
Looking start collecting some numbers… but looks like I’ll have to do some custom parsing of the data due to the discrepancies in the open in relation to what I want to do… ugh 
I’m going to see if I can make some sense out of the Volume as you discuss. I have a few practical things I want to try to put in place to see if I can observe anything.
Going to start with the idea comparing volume structure, particularly in H1 (as the only 2 things I can think to measure both deal with H1,at least right now)… 1 dealing with a running average (at any particular hour), and the other to possibly see if there is any relation to the way it forms depending on where in the week’s cycle we are.
Have some initial studies done. Of note is that there isn’t much here yet. I was curious to see if there was any natural ‘ebb and flow’ to volume as it transitioned week after week. Ignore the bodies/winners/losers wics etc, as this is H1, that will be used later for D1 and above. This is just about vol on H1 at the moment.
What you see here is data, from H1, for every day of the week, for each hour. What the graphs represent is simply the 4 week average of volume for each hour, and how it evolved over the course of 9 weeks, with the 4wk average for each day.
I’m not sure if this particular study is useful at all, what I think I need to do to bring in something useful might be the ‘actual’ volume for each hour/day, and see if anything there pops up.
Btw, friday’s session isn’t posted, as I can only attach 5 images.
You seem to have something nice there!
But in general, with your trading, what does your average volume tell you? Is it just WHEN you expect something to happen?
The shape is rather consistent. But my findings seem to suggest that for example the 3 and 5 week, at least for the shape of the volume curve are pretty similar to the 4 week average, at least in shape.