I’ll get in touch once I have PM privileges and share some thoughts. Enjoy your trading!
Hi Relativity,
I’m a late comer in this thread (Only up to pg 89 or so after having to read it many times over) and I’m finding your work very refreshing. I’ve just started getting the hang of using modified barrows swing and 20 pips box and regression line channel.
Too early to say but I made a few successful trades this week. It looks like your work has progressed further since page 89 based on the screenshot you posted above. Hoping to learn more from great minds like yourself.
Cheers
How do you balance your trading time vs study/research time?
I know that I need to further my studies to improve my chances, but I often get stuck to trading and end up with no time left to study.
This is a trade I set up for Gold last night.
I didn’t execute because I haven’t traded Gold before, but just wanted to apply what I learnt from this thread and see if it works out. More practice the better, right?
Now the reason I concluded that a short trade is the way to go:
- Squeeze at the top of H5/D1 swing TF
- Peak volume registered
- Price is very close to the descending weekly swing trendline (orange line)
- Daily/Weekly trend is still down
- MP skewed to the top slightly? (not too sure about this one)
Would appreciate any feedback from Relativity or anyone else.
Cheers
On a separate note, the advancedVSA indicator has suddenly stopped working all together. It’s just blank.
I’ve been using it just fine prior to this. I know I can manually calculate by dividing high-low by ticks but it was very handy to be able to visualize as a graph.
Wow. that’s awesome.
I’m mainly relying on the barros swings and peak volume (very handy so far) to identify potential retracement/reversal of trend. I must say my exit management has let me down a few times.
having said that, I’m currently at 70% win ratio from 35 trades so far. Hoping to sustain it but will require a lot of work.
Yes 
Thank you so much for being kind enough to share this.
I’m quite amazed that more people didn’t follow this thread.
Since posting the chart above, my trading has progressed to the next level.
Now I understand many things you said which I didn’t understand previously.
(eg. be like water, taking what you want and modifying it to your own style of trading etc)
I will be frank with you. I was puzzled as to why you were being cryptic and the first few times I read the thread, I was getting very frustrated to the point of almost moving on and thought I am not smart enough to learn what you shared. I’ve read the first half of this thread 8 times I think (yet to learn the jewels of the second part yet lol)
I don’t know exactly what happened but something just clicked a few days ago and I have found my own style of using the barros swing combined with your statistical proof, fibonacci expansion/retracement, market profie, basic elliott wave, candle stick and fibonacci timezone. Using this technique, I was able to ‘read’ the market very easily to the point where it was almost too easy to eat pips at every turns even on 5 min chart. Picked off 250+ pips on EURUSD pair yesterday using this technique.
So I sincerely THANK YOU THANK YOU AND THANK YOU. I don’t trade your exact “system” but you have provided a new perspective and the missing piece in my trading.
Looking forward to digesting the second part this weekend.
If the first half was this helpful, I can’t wait for what you say would be much more useful.
As to your first point, that is something I need to improve.
I can eat off the pips from a smaller waves, but I think I struggle with joining that with the bigger wave action and determining whether the price will continue advancing or completely reverse.
Having said that, the direction has become much less important now since I frequently pick out where wave 1&2 ends (I think of this as your 20 pip retracement proof), which means I pick the most lucrative wave 3. Also had success adding to the position at the end of wave 4 and getting out near the top.
Would be sad to see you go but it makes perfect sense. I think you’ve been more generous than 99% of the population to share your hard work. Congratulations on your upcoming transition to a full time trader. I wish you every success with that. I plan to continue trading with micro account for another 2-3 months slowly increasing the contract size and practicing loading up heavily when I’m 99.99% sure. I am an accountant by trade and work for a global mining company and frankly I do make good money from my day job but this is a way to gain financial freedom and escape the daily grind for me.
Oh did I say thank you?
Never mind. something wrong with my broker mt4 platform. It works fine on another mt4 platform.
Having said that, I have not been able to use this effectively. Personally found tick volume easier to apply to my trade for some reason. I guess I can’t grasp everything that you offer.
I’ve also noticed that my broker’s platform is very different from other demo account charts I’m using (Same TF, Same mt4, Same indicators, same london close, but different trendlines) I’ve now learnt not to trust the live account chart and do my analysis on a separate platform.
Sorry for the long-winded post and ultimately I just wanted to thank you again and let you know that I’ve gained a lot from this thread (more than anything I’ve studied so far)
OMG! I had to take a break from reading the second half and had absolutely no idea what you are all talking about (Repeat of what happened when I first read the first half of this thread)
I just came back to look at the SB Wave again and it suddenly just clicked in my head and this is an absolute GOLD to say the least.
This combined with my current strategy will probably increase the win ratio remarkably. I’m already at 80% win ratio with the current strategy (out of about 40 trades) and I can see this as a tool to back up my “predictions” and how I read the market.
I realise I probably can’t keep up 80% win ratio long-term,but this will certainly help. Amazing work here Relativity.
You did say you have now ditched trend channels and barros swing but I intend to use both tools to corroborate with each other and this should certainly improve my chances.
Huge respect and gratitude to you. You have simplified what most people consider to be “random” and “luck” down to 4 simple patterns. You really do have a big heart to be sharing these unconditionally for free.
Hi Relativity,
Great work here. Let me confirm what I’m meant to see from this.
Your indicator gathers last 1242 days worth of H1 candles and generates the swings and classifies them to the 8 types of waves, which the BasicSBWaves indicator does.
Your full-blown indicator goes one step further to identify the current forming wave type and then presents the possible scenarios (4 in this case) and also tells you the likely wave length of the next swing.
Are these ratios and transition probabilities pretty much constant or do these need to be regularly re-calculated to account for any changes in the market?
Realised that you have explained it further in the following post lol
EDITA little bit confused about one thing though. If the current forming wave is U3, the stat table at the top says there’s 0% chance of U3 to U1 transition so how do you have the ratios??? Or should I be looking at U4 to U1 probability.
Thanks
Hi Relativity,
Is your time grid in GMT+3 time??
Thanks.
With regards to compiling my own stats in relation to wave ratios, start/end time, I’m guessing I can manually use the crosshair function in MT4 to measure the lengths and time, and compile the data in Excel? Unfortunately it’s been 14 years since I learned to program, so this might be easier than trying to write MT4 code, which I have no experience in.
With all this knowledge, I’m getting a little drowned in information.
Any recommendation how to deal with SRs?
Finding it difficult to gauge whether it will bounce or breakout. This is rather crucial as entering the wrong trade at the SRs is the worst thing anyone can do.
Thanks Relativity.
I have read Nature of Trends by Ray Barros, but honestly didn’t take too much out of it because some parts were rather complex. This was before I even understood the 20 pips rule and etc… I am sure I will get much more out of it this time and I have started re-reading it today.
Just a quick update on how my trading has been going. Since I tried to apply the SBwave to my trading, my trading has honestly not been going well at all. I think the problem lies in the fact that I don’t currently have all required stats on hand plus I don’t have an automated indicator that you have so it involves a lot of flipping back and forth to check many different aspects on the fly which isn’t easy. I have compiled wave type transition statistics, but yet to start on getting swing lengths, time/day of occurrence etc. which will take a long time doing it manually.
I have no doubt it’s an ingenius way of trading and it works reliably based on your track record and your videos, but it’s too much for me at this stage and it’s become more of a hindrance than help. I’ve decided to put it aside (might still check from time to time) and go back to using barros swing as my primary tool, which has served me well.
Although my win ratio has come down from 80%, I have been good with loading up on high probability trades and am still doing well.
P/S Nice video btw. Quite accurate forecast of this week’s action although I only watched it after all the action took place
One quick question about the 20 pips rule though. This won’t work reliably if you are trading against trend in higher TF, correct?
To clarify, if I was to use H5 and D1 swings and the daily trend is up and green candle for the current day, I should primary look to go long after 20 pips retracement rather than trying to pick the top? I’ve looked at a few trades where I lost money and quite a few of them were where I didn’t check the overall trend and try to catch a few pips going against the trend.
Thanks as always
hi rel,
In the begining of the thread you said you made 700% in 14 days.Its over a year now.What kind of gains are you making now with better tools and better understanding and also what kind of growth your account has seen in last one year?
Hi all, I know that this thread has moved on from the initial BS indicators, but for anyone who is curious about what they were actually doing (as I was), I’ve rewritten the indicator to make the code a little more readable for anyone who wants to have a peak inside. I would not recommend you use these, there may be a bug or two in there, but you can get the gist of what’s going on.
Relativity, thanks for the useful thread, much appreciated!
ModifedBarrosSwings.mq4.zip (3.94 KB)
In this thread you said somewhere that to do scalping with maximun ‘safe’ target of 20pips. I dont get what you mean by ‘safe’ here.My guess is you meant trading with 20 pips stoploss for better than even RRR but almost even or slightly better strike rate.Or scalping with 20pips stoploss for less than even RRR but very high strike rate.
rel,
please make a post that sums up trading as a business acccording to you.what aspects a trader has to develop a good understanding of to be really successful longtermwise.Understanding MTF priceaction, Setting Stoploss that avoid getting hit by 'regular’priceaction, proper position sizeing to avoid risk of ruin are the 3 i can think of.What can we add to this list.
Hi Relativity,
What a crazy end to the week!
I have a few questions for you.
I have been working hard at building my own stats database in Excel.
It’s very crude and manual but it’s better than nothing I suppose.
Not sure if you have tried gathering swing ratios, swing type sequence probability for other currency pairs.
Would there be any significant differences? Would it be a bad idea to use the stats I gathered off EURUSD pair and apply the probabilities on other pairs?
Another question is how you deal with the SB waves changing during live trading.
If we had a U1 upswing completed previously and say the market is currently forming a downswing, which could either be the second swing of another U1 swing up (39% chance) or say the second swing of U3 (31% chance).
Let’s say the price has retreated about 30%. Obviously the second swing of U1 is likely to be between 30-50% of the first swing while U3 is likely to be a deeper retracement around 70-80%.
At this point in time (after 30% retracement), what would be your decision making process?
I guess the safest thing to do is set a buy stop order above the previous swing high (betting on another U1 wave) or alternatively short and set the stop above the previous swing high and target the high probability target?
Sometimes the indicator forms, for example, a U3 wave and at some point it flickers between D1 and U3 etc…
Does it mean we shouldn’t pay attention to the currently forming wave despite the indicator drawing a part of it since it could change at any moment?
I realise I need to consider the context such as the current daily/weekly trend, monday’s open etc and gauge the market sentiment and I guess that should play a part in my decision process, but a couple of times the market threw me a curve ball (I didn’t trade but was just observing) and completed a very low probability sequence (~13% vs >40% sequence)
i have checked kres…k thread …is price action indicator same as wave stat indicator?price action indicator is the only one of all the indicators given there which i couldnt get to running on mt4.
Besides you havnt replied to the advanded fpi thread …do u agree with that guy saying we are not buying dollar when we sell eurodollar?we are only getting dollars loaned to us.
i revisited that page.yes it is RELA_StatisticsBasicPriceAction.mq4 which show wave stats.when i run this indicator i am getting blank black screen.
also what is your view now on fpi as a concept?
i have tried unchecking autoscrolling and chart shifting but still blank screen.
As u have turned your trading fulltime when we can expect a big post from you on trading psychology?