SO there I was, playing with a paper trade on EurUsd, betting on 1.1810 being a new support level, and was £12 down. Wondering whether to cut my losses or hold on for a retrace, when all of a sudded I’m £350 UP !
close and shorted immediately and now I’m losing a little on the short.
So what happened ?
Apparently reports are circulating that the UK could be offered a two-year Brexit transitional agreement. I don’t know if anyone expected this today, nor if anyone predicted this would be positive for the Euro, but these things happen.
Some people day the market predicts the news - not what the item will be, but that it will be some good news that moves price up or some good news that will move price down. And the Euro’s action this week was overall very bullish. So there we go.
I agree the European currencies have done ok tis week apart from yesterday, but It’s friday, so I was vaguely expecting some position covering and thus a down day overall. I’m sure there must have been something else, because it went up 58 pips in a single second and seems to be holding pretty well. (which is sad because my short now looks a bit sick. Doubled it up at the double top 
)
All I can see on the calendars is retail, which seem to be around the time, but I’m not sure exactly due to the time differences.
Day wise currencies goes up and down. European currencies are always strong but some days in a week they also goes down. Time difference might a fact. Sometimes your strategy and planning everything might be fine but it won’t goes with you. Luck is also same. Sometime your own luck will stand against you. I always keep in my mind that sometime things go against you in forex. I am also seeing that this day it’s not working out.
Apparently US CPI was out and disappointing. (I don’t pay any attention to this stuff, as not trading intra-day)
Anyway, EUR shot up, or rather USD shot down, without you knowing why and yet you went short. This surely cannot have been part of a plan?
Shorts now in profit - looking to close them at intraday highs 1.1850
No not part of a “Plan” - just experience from trading the DOW - 
Usually I wasn’t in the market when it occurred, but it was almost invariably a good shorting oportunity. I’ve never seen one before on Forex, but at the end of teh day what we do is gambling - and the odds seemed right !
All closed out now for a paper profit of £701
@tommor I think you have hit the nil on the head here - “I don’t pay attention as I don’t trade itra-day” ie the news is of no effect at all in the longer timescale - so doesn’t that make it a Shorting opportuniy" ?
In honesty I’ve never been any good at intra-dfay but I was giving it a go as my system only gives me a few betting opportunities a year.
I was quite pleased to be £36 up off 4 bets, 3 winners 1 loser, and was as I said £12 down on bet 5 when this happened - then with the 2 shorts I had 6 good bets and 1 loser for total £701 for the day.
I hope I can make this intra-day stuff work - I’ll keep trying at it
Just looking at the 30 min chart of the EURUSD and the 24 hours before that move - does have the look of an Elliot Wave “a-b-c” retracement - do any of the institutions play “Elliot waves” ?
Its all good experience Falstaff.
The absence of a long-term opportunity doesn’t mean there must be a short-term one. There can be both, in the same direction or opposite, or there could be only one, in either direction, or there could be neither.
Exactly tommor. It’s really nice message and fine line. Thank you
So does this happen a lot on Forex ? As I said, I’m new here, but we considered them a LOT on the Dow. They can of course go either way, but again, either way if you get caught up in them you need to react quickly.
In my opinion, we had a long term opportunity a week ago on EURUSD - I’m long at 1.1725 and about £1250 up on that one at the moment. (Again paper money - aiming for 1.2000)
I do intend to continue to try this intra-day stuff though - my long-terms need big stops and I get bored watching the market every day looking for them to happen, so sometimes I miss them.
There, the whole move is now completely discounted and the question is the same one I was struggling with when it started - Will 1.1810 become a valid support after it retests , 1.1800 ?
So now EURUSD sits 1.1820 ish - I’m looking to see if it goes below 1.18, or if it shoots up in the last couple of hours. If this waas the DOW they would push it one way or t’other to set the scene for a bearish / bullish set of orders to ome in over the weekend - does that happen on forex ? or does the plain size of it stop that ?
That is Trader Gold right there. Love It Buddly 
The Ever Applauding VIPER
Hey T, it’s funny how this stuff works. This morning Bloomberg radio, had Boston fed pres Eric S. Rosengren on. When he was asked about the CPI numbers, he said it was expected that they would come in low due to the Hurricanes, and the data for the past few weeks would basically be discounted. Soooo, I am thinking, let’s watch, numbers bad, euro stronger, yuuuuuuge spike, I am watching and waiting for a reversal signal, yup there it goes, we go short, cover at the mean, and done. I really don’t think it was humans that ran it up, I don’t know why, but it feels machine like, you know if this happens do this, without any filter input, and the humans bring it back in line. I mean I don’t know, but I have seen the same basic situation before, and have profited from it.
Finally Done VIPER
Thank you Viper, much appreciated 
and yes, now it’s over, I can say it was a good trade, although quite scary when the loss on the short was increasing, to pull the trigger at the double top and increase it ! I could easily have given it all back and more, if it had kept on up !
Hmmmm…and I thought V’s comment was directed to Tommor. But I guess all comments are gold in their own way…