Good day everyone
How do I know When the market will rise and when the market will fall?
Soon it will rise and soon after it will fall. Or else soon it will fall some more and then soon after that it will rise.
Do you know, that’s all there is to it.
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Yes, I knew
Assuming I want to trade on EUR/USD how do I know if Euro is strengthen than USD
Well, an EMA or two relevant to your chosen trading time-frame on the EUR/USD chart can be a useful guide. For example, for my long-term trades I use the 50EMA on the daily chart as my main guide. Right now the daily 50EMA is sloping downwards and price is below it - both bearish indications.
But the 20EMA is above the 50 (though it is also sloping downwards) so this is a bullish sign and a bearish sign.
Meantime price has not yet breached the last swing low, 20/02, and has not yet printed an intermediate swing low and fallen through that either (unless you count the 16/03 as a swing low, which I don’t). Its always more bearish if price has fallen through a swing low and especially if it has made a high, fallen, made an intermediate retracement upwards ending in a lower swing high and then fallen through the intermediate low of the retracement. So two not-bearish signals (but not bullish) there.
Looking at the 50EMA slopes across all 7 EUR major pair charts and all 7 USD major pair charts, EUR scores 4 bullish v’s 3 bearish, while USD scores 6 bullish v’s 1 bearish.
All in all, the outlook is bearish for EUR/USD but with perhaps a short-term bullish retracement first. For immediate dramatic price action there are stronger plays.
Sir, I don’t really understand your write up, can you please break it down in way I could understand as a beginner
Just by the clues the markets give , then its just a educated guess as nobody knows for certain
Sorry, I did not intend to cause confusion.
I can’t go through it all right now step by step but the best guide for me is two EMA’s (Exponential Moving Averages), one about 2 to 5 times longer than the other. Start from here -
a) if both EMA’s slope upwards and the shorter EMA is above the longer, that is an uptrend
b) if both slope down and the shorter EMA is below the longer, that is a downtrend.
Look at the daily charts for EUR/USD. Using 20 and 50EMA’s it does not fit a) or b) so there might be a better trend to follow. Look at the same chart set-up for GBP/USD - it fits b).
But this is only a start. Google for a simple strategy and apply it to the longest time-frame you can stand in a demo account. Learn the strategy inside out. Then you’ll know what to look for when you decide to get a better one: then demo that one until you’re making money consistently.
Alright, Thanks
I’m sorry if my question seems Really rhetorical or stupid… What kind of examples are you referring to when you say the clues that the market gives?
If it was that easy, there wouldn’t be a market because everybody would know to do the same thing. Best advice is look at the daily or weekly chart. If it’s going up, keep going up and vice versa.