According to the latest RBNZ statement, the New New Zealand central bank is eying an increase in interest rates next year. I think they may go first in 2015 and I am using the rest of this year to build my long positions carefully.
Hello Rambo!
I have just posted a LONG analysis of NZD/USD here:
I am of the opposite view, at the moment… but, in the end, it doesn’t matter what I think: the markets
will decide
Enjoy reading my post!
I’d wait till at least .7400 before building long term long kiwi positions. Key commodities for kiwi have taken a beating and the exchange rate hasn’t yet reflected these changes (more downside). The US raising rates next year will be a much bigger influence for US bull then a kiwi rate increase will be for the kiwi bulls.
I mentioned .7400 as a good place to long, I view this a mid term target…Probably see a bounce or consolidation around there but ultimately I think .7000 will be hit before a true bottom is established, which will probably end up being a few months after the Feds begin tightening.
I am waiting for a pullback, but I also believe that the US Fed will not act next year (at least not with an increase in interest rates). I can see the RBNZ hiking in Q1, but commodity prices are the wild card. While I think they will rebound the timing is uncertain at least to me. Long-term I am bullish on the NZDUSD, but above 0.7700 I do not think I am getting great value.