Where's the bottom?

New traders - don’t waste your time and capital seeking to buy at bottoms. Or to sell at tops. These things cannot be seen before they have already occurred.

If you spend your day looking for bottoms, you will eventually find one of course - it will be the bottom of your account.

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Analysts at Glassnode track a number of gauges – from instances when Bitcoin dips below a moving average to when it closes below the so-called balance price measure, which reflects a market price that matches the value paid for coins minus the value ultimately realized. What they’re seeing now is that many of these measures are all flashing in similar fashion, something that rarely happens.

Over the last five years, the analysts say**, there have only been six other similar stretches, some of which have coincided with bear-market bottoms**, such as in November 2018 and March 2020. But might this time prove otherwise?

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/bitcoin-hints-at-a-bottom-but-it-may-be-different-this-time?srnd=premium&sref=8c8DWQby

Maximum despair needs to be hit before the market bottom is in. Sentiment always needs to be re-balanced and considering the obscene euphoria that gripped this sector we need to hit obscene fear.

Only when Hodlers have sold out swearing to never touch crypto again - only then will a long-lasting fear bottom be reached.

This is the way all markets work, and have done since the first markets in Babylonian times, through to rice markets of Japan, to Tulips of Holland, and yes crypto too

As Jesse Livermore said, ‘speculation is as old as the hills’ - the rules don’t change only the participants.

Technicals are all well and good but it’s the judging of mass euphoria or mass despair of the crowd that needs to be observed for long term peaks and troughs.