A brexit will inflict fundamental damage both to EUR and GBP, my question is which economy will be hit the hardest and why? According to EUR/GBP hourly seems like thd EUR is bullish, which is why I assume England are the biggest losers here…
Both EUR & GBP will suffer if the UK do exit. Vote is in June, but I very much doubt that we will leave the EU. Economical suicide.
Brexit is affecting GBP, EUR and the over all economy. Here is a good article written by Ruzbeh Bacha - How will Brexit affect UK
I will support UK to stay within the EU.
Thanks great article!
Both will suffer, however I think it was a good idea for Britain to negotiate for a better deal and overall they should stay united
Brits being a solid country, whereas so called Europe is scattered all across the globe, I give my vote to GBP.
Those overpaid, red tape loving european nonces tried all this comical scaremongering garbage a few years back when the subject of UK adopting that catastrophe otherwise known as the euro currency was in the spotlight
Fortunately we didn’t fall for that bad joke then & hopefully the general public will wake up again & see a continued united europe for what it really is - a sinking ship with more holes than a colander.
The Krauts dropped a massive bollock (again) with their recent gigantic open-door-to-migrants gaff & look how that’s working out!
The EU can’t & never could be trusted.
They haemorrhage money like it’s going out of fashion, their rules & laws (including that ridiculous european court of human rights) are a complete joke……basically they couldn’t run a piss up in a brewery if the beer was free.
Keep absolute control of our borders
Bring in an Australian points entry system to rigorously control who we allow in.
Deport undesireables & benefit grabbers immediately without european courts intervention
Ditch that human rights law nonsense & re-write our own British bill of rights.
Re-negotiate our own trade & business contracts
Re-route the money wasted on the EU back into our own internal interests.
They need us far more than we need them.
BREXIT with extreme prejudice!
Hmmm… what about the wall speed?
Yeah we need to be in the driving seat regards carefully picking & choosing which deals & options suit us & reject those that don’t & that twat Cameron came up well short.
Pull up the drawbridge & watch those fools across the channel implode courtesy of their beurocratic ineptitude.
We’ve got enough of our own government incompetence to deal with without having to constantly wade through several more layers of EU toilet paper.
If we continue as bed partners with that clueless bunch of clowns it will drag us even further down to their level & ruin everything our forefathers built up over generations.
We don’t need them & you’re right, we shouldn’t trust them further than we can throw them, especially Merkel & those French, Italian & eastern european ponces.
We’ve always been the envy of the world.
We’re the 4th strongest global economy courtesy of our superior business & financial nous & our exports, educational offerings & commercial/technical expertise has always been & still is, in extremely high demand. Brexit won’t alter that one jot.
The only thing closer union will bring is misery & more unwanted pressure on our infrastructure from 3rd world migrant trash. Let Europe absorb & control them (including those blackmailing turks), we have no need of them.
UK is already a simmering powder keg with the current bunch of low life we were stupid enough to allow in already & we certainly don’t need any more rocking up.
I totally agree, pull the plug completely & vote leave.
Cut the EU loose & let them sort their own sh*t out.
Lol, not yet fourth, getting beaten by those …you know, European guys.
Don’t believe everything that the Telegraph say, they say that the CEBR figure a good chance maybe fourth in about 15 years, mind you that was back in December and no mention of Brexit.
I often wonder if there was a referendum the other way about, would it be the big NON that Ted Heath received, who knows.
Anyways, back to economics, so the Bundesbank are worried, not for the UK but for the EZ, so who is not actually making the preparations, only fools and horses, je crois.
…but, even as I acknowledge market concerns for Brexit, you only have to look at the relative little change in GBP/USD after the Scotland referendum (Sep. 2014) to know that these are forward-looking markets, and as soon as they have positioned according to their forecast, then we must position accordingly. The Pound’s tumble has gone as far as the historic 1.35-1.40 demand zone, and stalled, even bounced back to 1.45… While the last COT report showed non-commercials (hedge funds, etc.) positioning about 2:1 short (twice as many shorts as there are longs) on the Pound, sentiment will shift because there is not much more value to this selling move… Once options expire (tri-monthly, in April), and with the new UK tax year upon us (starts next Wednesday), there may be money flow forces that may well bypass the fundamental themes of monetary policy and Brexit fears, at least in the short-term. Money managers may need something more solid than politik-speak, so they may close shorts at this tax-year end to take profit. We may see a short-covering GBP rally that has nothing to do with Sterling optimism, but certainly since the faux-rally (and tumble) from mid-2013 to mid-2014, when Carney came to the helm of the BoE and started the first rate hike talks, Cable has gone absolutely nowhere…
why dont you split up about it?
scotland refendum, eu refendum. why dont you pull 2 londons? the one where the happy people live and the one where the satisfied people live?
just put a red line in the middle of london and seperate yorself
all i see here people posting trash like "get the foreigners out, we need our laws, we want our rights, we want this we want that, we want better “deals”. come’on, do you think UK will get any deals after leaving EU?
Do you think the people in the EU care for the “be there, not be there, always whining UK” beeing in EU anymore?
Now you can get offended or not but if youd life outside of UK then you would realize that most of people in EU see UK as this -> :17: 24/7
you only love to seperate, you dont need any good reasons, you just want to be “against something” and the EU right now is what everybody can be against so Cameron unites your country, which if not against EU, would be against each other. You dont believe me? well then explain me why schottland wanted to exit the UK a few years ago and EU had to safe the UK by teling schotland that if they exit they will get no deals at all with EU and will be no member of the EU staying out alone pretty much isolated?
your problems. your economical problems… come from other sides, and not the EU. after all UK is doing its cherry picking since decades and negotiated deals against the EU no other member has. somewhere has to be a stop line dont you think so?
Your economical problems result simply out of things like: jaguar beeing owned by India
Mini beeing owned by germany
MG/Rover broke and gone for good
Landrover beeing owned by indian (i think,imnot sure thou)
Rolls Rolls beeing owned by germans
edit: i forgot- bentley beeing owned by germans aswell
airbus / EADS wanted to take over BAE-Systems 2 years ago, only after london whining the EU put a full stop banning EADS from taking over BAE-systems
some of your colonies/ex-colonies beeing tax-paradises like the caymen islands, singapur, hong-kong
some of your colonies/ex-colonies working since decades against UK.
You gave to many rights to tiny unimportant colonies simply out of one reason, to keep them in UK and thereby damaging your own FINANCIAL ISTITUTIONS AND ECONOMY. - or you think that it is normal having twenty times more companies registered in caymen island then citizen living on those islands? and those “UK-Companies” not paying any taxes?
your problems come simply from one side: bad management since decades
instead of doing something against your bad management you look for where you can hit the “waam-bulance (:17:)” the best.
and the list continues forever like this, not only by car manufacturers, financials, banks and whatever but by other branches aswell.
Your biggest bank was contemplating to move out of london to singapur- i bet you think thats the EUs fault aswell huh?
in the last decade UK lost more reputable companies then it lost colonies in 100 years. and you actually think that leaving the EU will make anything better for you? - ok if you think so, go ahead.
Wake up. Your problem is not the EU, in fact if UK never joined the EU by now UK would have faded into “non-existance” in the worlds economics and global powers.
my 2 cents
I agree, Turbonero
The problem the UK faces is exactly the same as the one facing all past “superpowers” (feel free to object to the phrase).
The Romans, Greeks, Egyptians, Mongols, all had empires covering large portions of the known world. Eventually they were all usurped and have never recovered past glories. UK is in the early stages of this, there is still a large number who seem to feel the UK is still a great power, that it is superior and that others should bow to its will. Many of the former colonies on whom the UK wealth was built are now independent and the UK now pay market prices for their products.
Interesting times ahead.
You hitted bullseye with this post
Yes, the ‘British Empire’ mentality is hard to let go, even half a century on…
Study: London FX Trading Hub to Suffer in the Unlikely Case of a Brexit
Great article… Perhaps ‘the markets’ have not actually priced this in, then…
After agreeing 100% with what TURBONeros said, which is “The many problems of UK are not connected to EU” let me say my opinion on the topic “why is UK not going to leave the EU”:
No matter how many controversial and confusing 50:50 social researches are published just in order to create confusion and move the markets, UK is never going to leave EU for the following simple reasons:
- all protectors of the Brexit are stating only ideology arguments: “independency”, “let’s show them who we are”, “UK is a great empire”, “we want better deals in general”, “we want our money back”
- on the other hand you have some real economical sanctions and some very real losses for the business: double digit % plunge in FTSA expected, several % plunge in GBP, renegotiation of all its trade relations which will take years, businesses will be ruined, exports will be severely hurt because the rule that exports within EU are not taxed with VAT will fell off, foreign investment will decline, cheap work force (immigrants) will decline… and so on and so on….
Well clearly UK citizens can’t eat ideology so I think that there are enough people clever enough to understand that and a Brexit is simply not going to happen. Economy is what drives the wealth of the citizens in any country and economy doesn’t care about ideology or past glory. Even if there are many not being able to understand that I am sure that if a person is informed from his employer that the company he is working in is going to lose X% of its value/revenue he is going to change his mind…
Hmmm… all good and well, but the latest headlines often persuade voters more than the thought of long term economics, for example a re-run of the Cologne escapade could easily tip the balance.
On economics, JCB’s chairman urges his employees to vote for Brexit, he notes that 53% of exports are to non EU countries.
In the Republic of Ireland JCB products are in great demand, but competition is fierce, the French Manitou manufacturer are gaining an increasing foothold - both are ‘imported’ free of vat and effortlessly without border (customs) control.
I also ‘export’ from the UK to the EZ, likewise without the restraints of customs and borders, indeed I also ‘import’ in the same manner.
I use the words ‘import’ and ‘export’ incorrectly, there is minimal paperwork, no taxes, no waiting or delays.
Yet, not many years ago, it was a very different story, a single export took the entire day, the requirement to employ custom clearance agents, the sitting about all day at the border - a wrong box ticked on one of the many forms meant yet another couple of hours delay - all this had to factored into price, and then try to be competitive.
My own company will likely relocate, we go where the market is.
Kinda sad really, this very day I had to choose between a product ‘made in the UK’ and one made in the East, the ease of trade combined with quality made the decision easy, remove the ease of trade and the decision could be different.