Possibly but it was meant more as an observation than a generalisation.
I’ll give you an example you see at the poker table all the time for example:
Some players will overplay a small pocket pair from early position and because it’s worked out for them in the past, they’ll convince themselves that it’s a winning play, especially the way they execute it perhaps.
When they inevitably get stung from time to time, they’ll sit there justifying their play and even perhaps criticising the player with the actual winning hand. They never stop for a moment to consider whether they should have been playing that hand from that position in the first place.
To my mind, that’s more than more than simple naivety, it’s self-delusional.
Now, all that said, as I pointed out in the original thread you referred to, I believe if you’ve got a proven edge, a good trading plan and the discipline to stick to it, you don’t need to worry too much about psychology full stop.
Isn’t that abit of a sweeping statement for something so complex .I know the term is aimed at newbies but is that such a negative.We was all begginers.
I have read many posts on here, many traders who are or was “serious members” who have traded for years blown account s on serveral occasions, I’ve blown account s too(but also turned small amounts into substantial amounts on several occasions). I’m still trading not because Im a ‘degenerate gambler’,have a point to prove, deluded, impulsive or excited about trading, or need the money.
I’m still trading because I know how to make money.
The reason I describe trading psychology as nonsense is because it is wholly irrelevant to successful trading if you have a proven edge and the discipline to stick to a comprehensive trading plan.
I’m going to be doing a small account challenge from next week. I’ve linked myfxbook to the account to prove it’s all legit and I will be reporting my progress right here on Babypips. I intend to start with $250 and try and 50x the account in about a dozen trades or less.
Now, I am by no means saying that I will succeed but I have a proven edge, a comprehensive plan and the discipline to stick to that plan, even as the lot sizes start growing. My psychology will play absolutely no role in the challenge. I simply stick to the plan and end up either losing $250 or walking away with about $12,500.
A small account challenge like that is an extreme example but I take the same approach with my ordinary trading. I research and develop a proven edge, work out a plan and stick to it. My approach doesn’t guarantee that I will make a profit but it increases my odds of doing so.
The other thing to bear in mind is that the subject of trading psychology can be very distracting for those new to trading. Their time spent learning about it would be better spent learning about what really moves markets and risk management for example.
This is just my opinion, I know many will disagree but I’ve spent years playing poker, betting on horses and sport and, in recent years, trading the markets and one thing I have learnt is that people tend to over-complicate the basic principles of profit in such endeavours.
Keep it simple.
All you need is an edge, a plan and the discipline to stick to it!
[quote=“DanLondon, post:69, topic:607128”]
betting on horses and sport and, in recent years, trading the market s
Not had a sports bet for years , last bet was 2017 I think…Though odds of events has always intrigued me for some reason,they still do.I dare say you go by statistics, though you said you like to keep things simple too.
This is what simple is
Horse racing
5/2 2nd.
12-1 3rd
5-1 2nd
The above would be selections from claiming races (though I believe these days they are no longer raced )were only 3 or 4 are prominent in the markets the other runners if it was a handicap they would carrying 1-2 stone more . Basically no hopers ,the 12-1 is a second fav in a race were the favourite is 1-8 on .
The wager would be 3x1 Ew doubles and 1 Ew treble
No winners as you can see the returns would be
1:7 x stake roughly with no actually winners
There a lesson to be learnt here ,same with trading what looks complicated is really simple, aslong as you have patience too.
i used to try to do these each-way trixie bets regularly
the problem i always found was that if you choose the right races for them (for example second-favorites in handicap races with 8 or 9 declared runners), after the first win the bookies would pay out hoping you’d just been lucky, but after the second win they’d pay out again and send you a letter either closing your account or limiting you to £1 bets in future - because they’d decided you knew what you were doing and knew that they’d lose money to you in the long run
it’s the same situation if you try to scalp a counterparty broker with forex: as soon as they decide you know what you’re doing, they take measures to prevent it, because it’s actually their money you’re winning, not the market’s money
most people posting about what they call “scalping” in forex forums don’t realise this, because they’ve never actually been a threat to their broker and they lack the skills and understanding to do it successfully
the very few who ever develop those skills and that understanding have to switch to currency futures
with currency futures, of course, every broker has the same prices, and your broker wants you to win, not lose, because you’re scalping the market, not the broker
This is a good example, you have a set-up that you have found to be profitable and now all you have to do is have the patience for that set-up to emerge from time to time in order to take advantage of it.
By keeping it simple, applying a little patience and practising self-discipline your example shows how easy it is to profit and yet most people lose on the horses hand-over-fist for the same reasons they lose in the market: they over-complicate things and they have no patience or self-discipline.
I have two different approaches when it comes to betting: arbitrage and value. The arbitrage is pure profit, which is always nice, but the value betting obviously involves a little bit of variance so you’ve got to have a lot of patience and self-discipline to make it work for you.
It used to be quite time consuming but these days I use OddsMonkey for finding arbs and a couple of different handicapping software packages to find value bets. In terms of time, OddsMonkey send me an alert when there is an arb fitting my selected criteria and I spend about ten minutes in the morning glancing over the day’s handicapping figures to see if there’s anything I rate of value.
Again, I’m not super smart and it’s not difficult. Anyone can do this.
As you suggest, you just have to keep it simple and have a bit of patience.
I knew a guy who had the audacity to put one of the first three in market in the claimer with the 7/1 and 14/1 shot in the maiden,only interested in the place doubles and trebles
9/4 3rd, 7/1 2nd .14/1 3rd £50 Ew treble 1/5 odds pays £661