Why does it seem more often than not i am on the wrong side of a trade?

It goes like this. I enter a trade put my sl and tp around the same distance from the entry.

More often than not it seems when price enters my trade it’s in the neg. If it goes into the green it’s good but often it’s a very small profit doesn’t hit tp at all then reverses and goes into the red and hits my sl. Happens so often to me. If i don’t set sl it just goes opposite of my trade like endlessly non stop.

It doesn’t even make sense statistically. How cam i be hitting my sl more often than my tp and i don’t even trade blindly. Ok i don’t analyze it to death but i try to make sense of the market like in the eurusd market right now i definitely won’t long a trade since the entire pair is heading downwards you get my drift?

In fact the majority of time i have been making money is like this. Watching a trade hoping it hits my tp. The minute price even gives an indication that it will reverse i close it right there on the spot. Obviously this doesn’t even follow any trading method and i am ashamed to say i made more money this way by closing trades suddenly compared to letting it hit my tp.

I’m not superstitious but i believe i’m cursed or plain unlucky. Imagine that fx and market trading doesn’t really depend on luck but yet you have to admit there is an element of the supernatural involved.

Maybe your tp is too high, fx is pretty random, you have support/res levels but apart from that and the news it is pretty random, id say be happy with any profit you can get.

Share your strategy & some charts / recent trades you made.
Members here can help critique what you’re doing.

How long have you been trading for? It sounds like the problem may be a common one- ask yourself: Are you more focused on the results, or the process?

Well, you are entering too late. If you are trading with few indicators and waiting for them to line up thats your problem, indicators are lagging, in most cases when they line up move is already “over”,big boys are closing trades and price is retracing, or price has reach sup/res…laging indicators work with strong trend and markets are trending only 20% of the time so…you need to adapt strategy.

I’m in agreement with above. Actually the answer is quite easy with no disrespect to you, the answer is : you don’t know as much as you think you do.

Good news is so’s the fix. Fire up your demo and based on your rules for taking a trade, entering , stop loss and take profits execute; then step away from trading and don’t open until next day. Analize what worked and what didn’t in your opinion, then if it’s still not clear follow forex unlimited advice. Do this for just a week and you should see what’s wron if anything. Good Luck
Gp

Do put up a few charts so that we can see what’s on and what you did…it should help make things clear.

trading out of fear is a surefire way to lose an account. you are focused too much on the $, not on the proper process it takes to make money.

results not process.

My best results were when i just closed the trade when i felt it was enough due to gut feel and then leaving no sl and waiting for price to retrace till i made back the amount.

Well one day eurusd as you know was going downwards but shot up quickly. Well it took out my SL even though it was above the fib line. My entry was a sell and as you know the price line you see is the ask line i think. Anyway it took out my sl. So i entered the trade again this time with a buy i think. Then it went down and so i lost more. I think i put in a sell this time and i don’t know why price went upwards.

That was 2 weeks ago. Last wekk was better. It suddenly shot downwards as you know eurusd shot down super quick but my tp line was so close to the entry so i made very little. I forgot the exact entry but i am sure you can remember sometime last week around mid week eurusd was around i think the 1.17 region midway my entry was further down then it just out of the blue fell by 200 pips into the 1.15 region i think yes i made money from that but very little cos my tp line was close to the entry who would expect it to drop so fast and then to move so far. Well last week afterwards i made a short on the usdjpy and it shot opposite and now usdjpy is moving upwards. I’m like screwed.

I listen to james 16 webinars but they’re so dull. It doesn’t even seem to work.

Ok, so that’s what I originally thought.
You’re putting the proverbial cart before the horse. Think about it.

It’s kind of true eh. It’s like you’re thinking oh i’m going to make this or that amount. Yeah i’m more concerned that my account increases the process which would mean trading the charts. I actually do. I don’t do much i follow simple price action, using fib retracements, i used to do fractals and read up on chaos theory but it didn’t help that right now i’m doing ichi muku and well i didn’t really follow it to a T.

Anyway i feel that some supernatural being is playing a joke on me.

Here’s what it goes. I put a sell on usdjpy around 116.18 region. Of course i’m in the red since it shot up till 118.7 today. My SL was at the 118.9 region and earlier i was watching it around the 118.5 and noticed it didn’t break 118.5 so i was thinking yes this is good news it’s not going to go up anyway. Of course it does it starts going past 118.6 118.7 close to 118.8. Seeing that i decide oh crap i better close the thing asap instead of waiting till it hits 118.9 so i close it around 118.72 which is more than a 200 pip loss.

Well what do you know happens next and is occuring right now. Yup price is falling shoots right past 118.6, 118.5 is now around the 118.3 region and is more likely going to go down next.

You see what happened to me here. Isn’t it just weird that the minute i decided to cut my losses before it hits my sl and gives me a bigger loss it just turns around and goes in the direction of my trade which means that had i stayed in the trade now i would be less in the red.

I just have this negging suspicion that something is somehow watching me trade like if i’m in the red just keeps going against my trade the minute i cut my trade it reverses. Honestly this isn’t the first time i have noticed this.

What do you have to say about this?

It only seems that way. Don’t be so quick to enter. That’s what happens when as soon as you go in price goes the other way. When I first combined simple price action with fib I found it happened to me. Now I look for pairs that are ranging wait for the pair to break either top or the bottom to get me into the trade, then use your fib tool to manage. Works a lot better
Gp

It sounds like you need to focus more on educating yourself and learning how to trade, rather than trying to make money right now. I can sense a lot of emotion-based decisions being made, and that is not how a professional trades.

What is your strategy?
Is it written down, in a journal / word document / excel spreadsheet?
Does it say “this is what I’m looking for” “this is how I’ll get in” “this is why I’ll get out”?
Do you try to trade with the trend generally?
Do you have a time-aspect associated with your trades?
Do you journal?
Do you rely on external information?

Do you know what volatility is? Have you ever heard of the VIX index?
Do you understand the correlation between risk-sensitive instruments and the JPY crosses?
How much effort have you devoted into learning about risk management concepts?
Do you feel that you have an understanding of how fear and greed can and will hijack your decision-making processes?

Look, I’m not attacking you- I’m just trying to point out that there are so many more levels to trading, than merely “reading simple price action”. I’m not the expert, but, these are all questions I feel you need to be asking yourself.

Jake

hi thanks for this.

no strategy or rather it’s hard to describe in words.

no writing down in journal. I read about writing it down but it’s so comlicated isn’t it recorded down on your broker’s side?

yes trade with the trend in fact if i see price moving i tend to follow it. Usually with a sell or buy limit. Let’s say price is moving upwards i do a buy limit. usually lower down rather than a buy stop. Yup a huge number of trades were like this

Time associated nope no more. I just try to see how far price rises. MY most popular method is to keep the trade open as long as i can if i am in the negative and then try to close it when i reach positive. Sometimes i try to make sure i make a big profit from it but most of the time it’s closing it. I’m very afraid to close bad trades.

i use forex factory’s news reports to read up on news but most of the time the price has moved before the reports have come out and who knows if they are good or bad.

read up on chaos theory don’t know about vix know that sometimes markets spike up or downwards but never really had a chance to use it to my advantage.

so there you have it.

You have to review your trading strategy, especially you point of entry into the market. Your entry points determine the profitability or loss of the trade; what factors do you consider before you make your entry. These points will help you in making better trades in the future.

Ok- just keep @ it, and something will click eventually.

Read these- there are some basic and advanced thoughts I’ve had which may spark something:
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/71145-should-i-call-quits.html#post675508
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/63792-embracing-risk-increase-profit-managing-losses.html
http://forums.babypips.com/introduce-yourself/64212-absolute-beginner.html#post612903
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/65304-3-things-turn-your-trading-around-today.html

thanks. …

  1. confirmation bias. sometimes you make a trade this way, and it works out the way it should. sometimes it doesnt. you only remember the negative times.

  2. your analysis was wrong and you shouldnt do that again

3)just a bad trade, you generally make the right analysis and it will even out over time.

“i was watching it around the 118.5 and noticed it didn’t break 118.5 so i was thinking yes this is good news it’s not going to go up anyway”

first part.

“Of course it does it starts going past 118.6 118.7 close to 118.8.”

2nd part.

You can think of it as

  • i have a bad trade and every other parameter is the same
    -i have a winning trade and i turned it into a losing trade
  • i made a wrong analysis and was wrong about the trade

i personally think its the last one. You are thinking it as “if i did this and this instead, this trade would have made money”. What you should have been thinking is “My analysis was wrong, so I lost money. How do i improve my analysis?”

Just because theres only an up and down movement doesn’t mean your trade idea was right even if you entered it in the right direction. Even flipping a coin can do that.

Fundamentals are more important than Technicals. So the Fed is going to raise interest rates and the Bank of Japan are printing money so with that you can say the dollar is going to get stronger than the yen. So you should be looking to buy the usd/jpy, I doubt the usd/jpy is going to go lower than 114 this year so at 116 if you bought you could have held that position and get out when you want. Why everything is based around interest rates i dont know, to me it makes sense that they are important but not to the extent that they imprint themselves on prices to the extreme, maybe more advanced traders on this site could explain that?

Hi Snake,

Come over to the ‘forex price action’ thread. We trade reversals with trend from a retrace/pullback. I find it is one of the safest ways to trade when you employ the strict entry methods taught there. Any monkey (like me) can trade from a key level with trend and make money. But the big difference in being profitable long term is your Risk reward ratio and money management.

For me, RR/MM is the holy grail. e.g. with a risk reward of +3R and -1R on each trade, i only need to win 30% of my trades. e.g. 5 losers, 2 wins, i am making profit. 4 trades a month? You’re in profit. 10 trades a month? You’re in profit. A+ set ups and patience is essential. Set and forget, though many folk like to manage their trades.

We trade daily and 4H time frames mainly, so less stress. The method is simple, uncomplicated, effective, and easy to understand. As with any trading though…simple, but not always easy. Just a thought, as i have struggled in my search over the years too. If you are after something more complicated, there are many other methods out there too.

But no matter what method we use, a simple, clear Trading plan, and a solid consistent risk reward ratio that you are comfortable with is the holy grail as far as i’m concerned.

Good trading, G.