A wiser man than me.
Whats to tell. Whats the price now. What was the session high/low. What is the days high/low. What was yesterday’s. The days before. Last week. Last month.
Now replace price with time. And look forward.
You look back at price, you look foward with time. At least thats what I do.
That’s a little bit to cryptic for me.
But yes the OHLC’s are important. My simple approach to time is that if the inside bar doesn’t break out by the very next bar - I cancel the order and move on.
Not cryptic bro, meant to read exactly as written.
So to follow up. An inside bar compares the price of the last bar to the previous. Time looks forward. If the price doesn’t break in the next bar out it voids that structure and as you rightly identified, you cancel the order and move on.
Trade what you see.
Yes I do trade daily and my result has been quite good over the past few months. What are bad conditions for some are ideal for others. Some thrive on chop and volatility… it just depends on your trading style.
The original statement by Jennifer was that Forex is a volatile market… which is why i answered that it really isn’t because the price movement is very small on a daily percentage basis. Normally people think FX is volatile when they leverage up… so yeah a 20 pipe movement can seem like chop to some but it’s really just a normal fluctuation.
Just curious what you think is a wild swing or chop for that matter?
Aha. If you want the market to be less volatile, it may help to come up an order of magnitude or two and trade on the 4 hour / 1 day timeframe. That will do wonders for the volatility you are experiencing.
Where we are now, the majority of price movements are random and are not respecting their own trends. The start date was about 28/08 when news emerged of the Japanese Prime Minister’s resignation. That event was not necessarily the cause but the phase had changed by the close 03/09, its more visible on the weekly charts over the last 3 months.
A basic way to track this would be to look back and see how many recent weekly bars the last or current weekly bar overlaps. Look especially at the most heavily traded pairs, EUR, GBP, JPY, USD.
Sorry tommor, if you could show an example of what you mean by weekly bars overlapping?
Cheers
Sure. Here is EUR/USD, using candlesticks -
The candle at the extreme right is this week’s price data, up to last night’s close. You will see that some part of its range from high to low overlaps with the previous 10 consecutive candles in the last 3mths. This is a market going nowhere.
I think this choppy ness might be ending.
Last week gold put in a weekly harami inside bar and today gold action is strong.
Dollar is weak and I’m getting stock set ups all over the place.
Just a hunch - but I think we’re moving out of this phase.
I’ll be happy - had a crap september
I did notice today was certainly different. First session since 25/09 that the major pairs I’m tracking went with-trend.
I’m hoping we get some follow-through until NY closes, which would suggest follow-through on Monday also.
I have to take time into account if I’m day trading…sometimes the best patterns are on 5 min and 15 min candles, other times they are on longer term charts like 30min and 1hr candles and to be completely honest my charting software does not show 8hr candles so I apologize for that comment
Same here I will be very happy when prices start to stabilize
Tbh I wouldn’t even have a strategy to trade candles in that timeframe
When I consistently see candlesticks that are as long as the candles themselves that tells me traders don’t my don’t where to move prices to
because there different shades of grey too
You need to remember that price action movement is a ‘lagging indicator’ which reflects the market sentiment. Which is pretty obvious that Covid 19 has adversely affected global economies, and add a US presidential vote in November to the mix, it’s no wonder the markets are all over the place.
IMO, it’s a gamble right now.
Good observations. People criticise MA’s for lagging price but even price lags in time.
The markets are highly perturbed by covid-19, and a few other unusual factors like the resignation of Abe and Brexit.
On some measures, prices in chart-visible established trends have failed to continue those trends. However, I hope to be able to show soon that their price movements have not become random with-trend and counter-trend (i.e. 50% up and 50% down) but have become predominantly anti-trend. This if true would confer a statistical edge which would be tradeable. Price observations still in progress to help me develop a strategy.
This is a great example, in my opinion. Thanks for posting. And the longer the period of no direction, the more explosive the breakout may become. There is nothing that tells us we need to trade every hour, day, week or even month. My belief is that trading alone may not lead to a long term successful outcome for most peeps, but trading in conjunction with a long term invest and hold strategy (be that in commodities like precious metals, stocks or other real markets, or real property or antiques or whatever) can be life impacting (either way)
If price movements are up to date and accurate enough for me to be consistently profitable it a stable market they are probably not very “lagging”…right?