Why is everybody expecting the EUR/USD to rally?

seems to me your script has some programming in common with the 1-hour bollinger bands calculations

Not the programming, just the entries… :slight_smile:

This is more a stupid mechanical approach. In fact it is easy as can be, but the complexity in this script is managing two trade strategies and four trades, each with their own P/L, SL and TP and lotsize calculations. It is more to test the last parts than the actual strategies.

TurboNero, it is interesting that you think everybody thinks EURUSD will rally. Actually, at the moment you can find data that on average retail clients are 2.5 to 1 more short than long EURUSD. A range like this snapping upwards would come as a bad surprise to many traders.

Ahh well… It is just who is willing to openly talk about it…:slight_smile: In this case the Bulls. But interesting fact TradeWiseFX. Thanks.

Hey TadeWiseFX,

i dont think everybody thinks €/$ will rally, i stated that i saw a lot of people on BabyPips (didnt mean other forums or locations/places) posting trading advices which leads into long positions on the Eur/Usd. Too many people talking other people into long positions in the BP-forum is what i observed.

Thank You for the datas, i hope those 2,5 will win the next few days/weeks and buy themselves new toys like laptops or a vacations for summer:)

You probably know a nice hotel to stay in during that holiday?? ;):stuck_out_tongue:

definately :smiley:

haha good one by the way :smiley:

One Heads and Shoulder ignored and another one questionable if it will be broken or not. It sure is a sturdy support at 1,145/1,15. Enoug motivation to go through it, but the bears are resisting… :slight_smile:

we need more bulls, get more bulls in! … nothing moving? huh…no bulls left anymore? huh? :smiley:


There they are!


Here is a small piece we wrote on the retail positioning and why the shorts should look out: EURUSD ready to surprise traders? | TradeWiseFX

Hi TradeWiseFX dont take this personal now what i write below please, im reffering to the article not you.

How much more evidence do you need (now after you heard a broker telling you "dont go short on EUR/USD) to actually look for short positions?

Haha

Excellent…

:slight_smile:

Good point, Turbo…

Besides, non-commercials (e.g. hedge funds) may be lightening up on Euro short (futures) contracts,

but they are nowhere near done with selling the single currency:


(Source: https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/commitments-of-traders )

Maybe there is an inconvenient truth, that we may not be made out of retail trader material… :S

sorry im writing from my phone now so nevermind the typo

the problem with eur/usd right now is that we have a huge bubble formed up on the dollar. wehave a lot of carry trades developed on the dollar since the last crisis. the fed is wery well aware of that and has to take that into consideration on interest rate changes as: a higher dollar value initiates the close of many carry trades. higher interestrates initiate even more closes of carry trades.
the problem with closing many cqrrd trades is that the carry trades on the dollar hqve become a huge factor for the world economy as investors used the cheap dollar to buy assets kn emerging markets. partilly that waw one of the resons ontothe heavy china reacrion of january after the fed increased its rates.
after i wrote a long article of that the fed should increase interest ratesminimum to 1% (if you still remember that thread) i was wondering what was wrong in mylogic abd why i assuned wrong. foubd out that the fedhas heavy issues to not danqge the world economy by making carry trades on the dollar too unlucrqtive in too short time and investors pulling out too much money in too short time out of emerging markets.

as the euro is the biggest opponent of the dollar i cqn completely underdtand why everyone is shouting “buy euro buy euro” even institutions and banks etc.the peopleare beeing blindfolded into lowering the value ofthe dollar in order to prevent a bubble from busting.

call me crazy but the peoplecan be blindfolded only for some time abdnot forever.so lets see what the eur/usd is going to do. blindfold people abd itgoes above 1.15 and startrallying (as it did after the fed interestrateincreaselast december completely against any logic or economical rules and values) or the fed loosibg its power to influence markets and pushes the world economy into a bew recession (an its abouttime as the 7-8 years circle of crisis abd boom in fknishing this year).

No offence taken TurboNero, but just to make the point more clear the article is informative not a trade suggestion and offers insight into retail positioning which is fact not an opinion. Crowded trades are something to be aware of and take into consideration but does not mean a short position can’t be profitable, in fact, February was very good for retail traders with a similar short position near the resistance. Anyway, one should trade a proven system not on random tips on forums :slight_smile:

I talk about the Euro in my new FreeFX video, by the way…

Go to Forextown and follow the thread link there :slight_smile:

WHAT I don’t trade on random tips from forums!! No…no…no.nononono BRB:(

Gonna watch that one. Am curious if you play the guitar for background music… :slight_smile: