Why is everybody expecting the EUR/USD to rally?

I really dont understand it right now. on babypips i saw this weekend and last friday a dozen posts people saying buy Eur/usd rally etc.

1,15
1,20
1,30

i mean i really dont trade forex but i guess everybody has some secret practice that i am not seeing or understanding…

by fundamentals it can not be… (no need to elaborate here now the fundamentals)
by chart technick it cant be…

what is it that everybody on babypips is bullish for Eur/usd?

wishfull thinking? i see so many people braking very simple technical analysis rules lately like noone every trying to stick to rules?

can anybody explain it to me or is this some sort of forex logic that people like me who do stocks dont understand?

Patterns. EURUSD is pushing against a Support level at aroud 1.145. If it breaks it can mean a breach of trend and so on ralley up. Currencies don’t care much about fundamentals, and if they do they acted counterwise anyway.

But that level has been pushed for the whole last week.

Also, the last low was higher than the previous one. So a higher low. But everything is random ofcourse… :wink:

Other than that it is wishfull thinking… :slight_smile:

yes i saw the restistance level around 1,15 which is holding since more then a year by now. but (now im playing stupid) arent the odds in favour of “the level not beeing broken”?

why not wait and see if it gets broken instead of risking/gambling/hoping his account down?

and thank you for your reply Toekan :slight_smile:

im really out of plates here. not by the idea behind but by seeing so many basic rules beeing broken by traders lately on this pair and on this specialresistance level.

edit: btw in my idea the 1,15 will hold as resistance and eur/usd will make a u-turn

Well, there is 33% that is hoping it would ralley up, 33% that expect a ralley down and 33% that waits what will happen. :slight_smile:

The pattern at this moment ‘Bullishly’ [Modestly].

But to be honest, I have been bored to death in the last week and like to see some action myself. I think more traders are eager now and are looking for confirmation which way it will go. Until it reaches 1,185-ish my trades signals are still “hold” for daily chart.

I think you are right on that one. It is just trying to push the 1,145 to confirm to your big plan. That takes a while now. But the third try is often right, and this is the third time on the D1-charts.

PS I hate my new keyboard!!! A lot of typos. :S

yah omg yes me too, this surface keyboard is great compared to other tablets but when something like bread crumbs fall in it or shugar pieces and lay below the buttons you have things u have to hit hard to write them, like right now the number 1 i have to hit it like i hit itwith a hammer :smiley:

…on the newly downloaded app, BarChart, and noticed how there was clear, consistent buying of Euro at the end of March, which pushed EurUsd from 1.12 to around 1.14; however, you can see for yourselves how recent price action reflects indecision among large speculators, with a battle between net-long and net-short happening on a daily basis, and candlesticks being almost a parade of slender dojis, which means nobody has a f+cking clue (excuse the strong language) where to go with this, so to call for breakouts to the upside now is sheer daydreaming!!


Yes, it is whipsawing. Rangers are having a blast, MA-ers will be crying.

But today it will go to 1,15375 after which it will drop to 1,14751 so that I can test my new script live… :smiley:

My own charts seem to suggest that there is no real direction at present and has not been since end- March.

This seems to reflect an overall situation where (1) last Dec Fed was indicating a number of rate increases during 2016 based on anticipated economic growth. (2) this year’s economic data has so far been mixed and led the Fed to reduce its expections of interest rate increases, (3) market has (partially) retracted its built-in rate hike expectations and is now awaiting fresh input and therefore there is no clear trend at present.

Seems although employment is still strong in US this is not yet translating into consumer spending which is the engine that drives the US.

Retail sales on Weds this week might give some new impetus… in the meantime I am an unbiased range trader with no leaning either way.

ive seen a lot of brakeouts in the last 6 years in stocks and comodities. they happen fast, they happen powerfull they dont make a brake at the brakeout zone and then think of doing it or not (like a virgin at first $ex) they are powerfull and fast.

but… i dont trade forex, maybe forex brakeouts are different then from what i am used to :slight_smile:

everytime ive seen the price linger around and not decide either to go in or not is when people dont know what to do and wait for support from other sides (i guess in this case FED and ECB).

in my eyes this is absolutely no place to take any sides/decitions/trades and thats why i posted this thread as i saw a lot of people posting “go long now well brake through” in babypips and thereby crossing a few very old trading rules.

i agree with you, daydreaming of people.

in my view people should trade what is given and not their hopes… hopes destroy wallets fast

agree, hit the 1,15 and bounce back thats what im expecting aswell :slight_smile:

I’ve learnt not to expect anything from this pair. Stubben like the misses. So you go with it and agree with everything she tells you. Happy wife, happy life. But you have to listen very, very hard.

Oh, I am… But there are moments, rare but nonetheless, that I suspect what my wife will tell me, what makes me filled with joy when I assumed right… :slight_smile: And in this case the scenario that I shared will test precisely the things I’d like to see my script can deal with.

PS My script got in at 1,137ish so that looks promising.

long? god need to tipe 10 charackters, annoying. lazy posting 5 letters would be so cool now

long? god need to tipe 10 charackters, annoying. lazy posting 5 letters would be so cool now

My boxes said short, in for a penny in for a pound nice 114 points gain. If this trendline gets broken I’ll try a long.


Don’t argue with the missus!

Bro things happen fast down here. Trend line broke, money where my mouth is and long we go.

Even though I trade ticks, the lessons to be learnt are the same. Having preconceived bias on any pair can be a dangerous way to trade. The market gives us two pieces of information, price and time. Make your decisions based on those two criteria alone. Trying to see something that’s not there can only cause pain. Nice head and shoulder formed in the time it took to type this.

Yes, Long. and some other characters to meet minimum forum requirements. :wink:

Script placed a counter trade at 1,14250. So I am long 1,13750 and short at 1,14250. According to plan, doesn’t mean that it will be profitable but the script does what it needs to do.